The structure of bias in peer voting systems: lessons from the Eurovision Song Contest

This paper assesses whether and how common characteristics of jury members or peer voters affect the outcomes of voting systems. In particular, we analyze to what extent these common features result in voting bias. We take as a case study the Eurovision Song Contest for which an extensive amount of historical data is available. In contrast to earlier studies we analyze the impact of common factors on the bias individually for each country, which is necessary to substantiate the publicly debated accusations of regional block voting by certain groups of countries. We establish strong evidence for voting bias in the song contest on the basis of geography, even after correction for culture, language, religion and ethnicity. However, these effects do generally not correspond to the usual accusations. We believe that our findings extend to all instances where groups of jury members or peer voters share certain common factors, which may cause voting bias. It is important to identify such structures explicitly, as it can help avoiding bias in the first place. The authors are grateful to Marieke van Dijk for excellent research assistance and to Laurens Swinkels, Ieva Pudane, Gijsbert van Lomwel, Jelena Stefanovic, and Bas van den Heuvel for useful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models in order to include macroeconomic factors. Our work benefits from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature related to the extraction of the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and the estimation of the parameters in the model. We include these factors in a dynamic factor model for the yield curve, in which we model the salient structure of the yield curve by imposing smoothness restrictions on the yield factor loadings via cubic spline functions. We carry out a likelihood-based analysis in which we jointly consider a factor model for the yield curve, a factor model for the macroeconomic series, and their dynamic interactions with the latent dynamic factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study, we use a monthly time series panel of unsmoothed Fama–Bliss zero yields for treasuries of different maturities between 1970 and 2009, which we combine with a macro panel of 110 series over the same sample period. We show that the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the yield curve data has an intuitive interpretation, and that there is interdependence between the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion is that macroeconomic variables can lead to more accurate yield curve forecasts.     

Innovation and entrepreneurship in the academic setting: a systematic literature review

In the knowledge society, universities have assumed new missions and relations in order to contribute to economic and social development, while preserving their own sustainability. This article aims to explore scientific literature on innovation and entrepreneurship in the academic setting, describing how the field is organized, main terms and definitions, theoretical frameworks, and empirical models, in order to direct future research. A systematic literature review was conducted, in which articles indexed at Web of Science were initially submitted to a bibliometric analysis. Then, the content of a set of articles best fitting the objectives of the study was analyzed. Bibliometric analysis shows an increasing literature, with publications over more than 40 years. There are studies from many disciplines, with those in business and economics prevailing, mainly related to management and originating from the USA and Europe. Content analysis shows a fragmented literature, with definitions not showing a clear relationship between innovation and entrepreneurship, or their use within universities in coherence with their traditional definitions. Both theoretical frameworks and empirical models are very heterogeneous, but four groups of studies were identified based on their theoretical frameworks, and also based on their empirical models. With only a few exceptions, empirical models do not share many components and variables, and there are no clear boundaries between the different models. Despite the increasing literature, it is still fragmented and undertheorized, requiring more systematic and holistic studies, considering both the economic and the social aspects of innovation and entrepreneurship within universities.     

Impact of culture on marketing strategy: Introduction to the special issue

This special issue of the Journal of Business Research features eleven articles selected from the papers presented during the fourth meeting of the Royal Bank International Research Seminar which took place in Montreal at the John Molson School of Business, Concordia University, September 23 and 24, 2007. They cover topics related to culture and marketing communications, consumer socialization, materialism, identity and religiosity, service quality, language effects, consumer revenge behavior and government actions.     

Time-consistent linear taxation and redistribution in an overlapping-generations framework

We study time-consistent labour and capital income linear taxationusing an infinite-horizon overlapping-generations model of asmall open economy. Individuals have different productivitiesand the government intervenes for purely redistributive purposes.The study of time-consistent taxation requires the introductionof borrowing restrictions in the economy. We characterize thetime-consistent solution and consider alternative solutionsbased on a simple tax rule. We demonstrate the existence andthe uniqueness of the time-consistent solution using a log-linearutility function. We provide numerical comparisons between time-consistentand time-inconsistent linear taxation: the importance of beingable to make commitment decreases when the differences betweenindividuals increase.