Two Tests of Pricing Efficiency in the Rapeseed Futures Market

This paper assesses pricing efficiency in the rapeseed futures market. It reports the results of an updating of an earlier analysis, by Martin and Storey, which applies Gray' s simulation of long trading positions in futures market operations. A second test of the martingale hypothesis is also applied to rapeseed futures prices and to futures prices for soybeans, rapeseed' s major competitor. The results of simulated trading activities give some indication of price bias in the first decade of trading in rapeseed futures contracts but there is no evidence of bias in the second decade of trading. The test of the martingale hypothesis indicates that there may have been periodic instances suggestive of pricing inefficiency for the rapeseed futures contract in recent years, although such instances also characterize the more heavily traded United States Board of Trade soybean contract. Cet article évalue l' efficacité de la détermination des prix sur le marché a terme des graines de colza. II met à point une analyse précédente, par Martin et Storey, qui applique la simulation de Gray de positions longues dans les opérations sur le marché à terme. Un deuxième test de l' hypothèse martingale est appliqué aux prix à terme des graines de colza et aux prix à terme des graines de soya, le principal concurrent des graines de colza. Les résultats de la simulation des activités d' échange donnent quelques indications de partialité dans les prix pendant la première décennie d' échange de contrats à terme pour les graines de colza, mais il n' y a pas d' évidence de partialité pendant la deuxième décennie d' échange. Le test de l' hypothèse martingale démontre qu' il y a eu peut-être des cas périodiques pendant les années récentes qui semblent indiquer 1' inefficacité de la détermination des prix pour le contrat à terme des graines de colza, mais ces occasions caractérisent aussi le contrat des graines de soya du Board of Trade des Etats-Unis, dont le marché est plus actif.     

Labeling Context and Reference Point Effects in Models of Food Attribute Demand

There is considerable interest in the effect of labels on food product demand. Labeling statements may convey new information about attributes and place consumers in different choice contexts; consumers' assessment of information in labels may be affected by reference points. We examine labeling context relating to genetically modified (GM) food as a factor in the stochastic component of a random utility model and assess reference points over a set of observable characteristics of consumers. We find that labeling context effects are present, although relatively small, while reference dependence is a very important factor that varies over observable characteristics of the sampled consumers.     

Discriminatory Procurement Policy with Cash Limits

This paper presents a counterexample to the Miyagiwa ((1991) American Economic Review 81, 1320–1328) claim that discriminatory government procurement policy is ineffective as a protectionist device, when the goods are also consumed by the private sector. The procurement sector is a homogeneous product Cournot–Nash duopoly, with a home and a foreign firm. The procurement policy takes the form of an ad valorem premium over the import price. If both the firms play the output game in strategic complements, procurement policy can lower imports. This possibility arises when the product demand is unit elastic, corresponding to cash limits to public expenditure, and providing the home firm is smaller than the foreign firm. By adding a competitive export sector, the paper also derives sufficient conditions for macroeconomic coordination failures to occur.     

Review Essay: The Bank for International Settlements: An Assessment of its Role in International Monetary and Financial Policy Coordination

This article reviews the role of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and its adaptability to the changing international financial structure, from the gold standard to floating exchange rates. Today, the BIS has assumed the role of creator of international standards for banks and financial conglomerates through the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Its implied mission is to prevent international financial crises and to mitigate negative externalities when they occur. The overall assessment of the BIS is positive. Its small membership gives it a sense of purpose and minimizes free riding. Given the high degree of financial integration in the world and consequent large spillovers, the BIS would have to be created if it did not already exist.     

Trade and convergence between rich and developing countries: Some empirical evidence on macrodeterminants of specialization

Trade and Convergence Between Rich and Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence on Macrodeterminants of Specialization. —A case study is proposed considering trade of Italy with many groups of partners belonging to the EU, to the G-7, to the newly industrializing countries and to the newly exporting countries. Using panel estimation data, they reach the conclusion that standard of living convergence does not favour intraindustry trade among rich countries but it is IIT-biased when considering emerging countries like the NICs. A much more important role is played by country-relative size and price differentials and/or vertical differentiation.     

Microeconomic mechanisms behind export spillovers from FDI: evidence from Bulgaria

This paper studies how the presence of multinational enterprises affects the export performance of Bulgarian manufacturing firms—export spillovers from FDI. Using export data at the firm/product/destination level for the period 2004–2006, it finds positive forward spillover on export value and quantity, related to quality upgrading. Conversely, it finds negative (or insignificant) backward and horizontal spillover on export flows, related to quality downgrading. When aggregating data at the firm level and considering that a firm can operate in several sectors, the paper shows that the presence of foreign input suppliers allows domestic firms to export additional varieties of lower quality and upgrade the average quality of existing varieties, whereas the presence of foreign customers generates the opposite effect.