The effect of oil price on China's exports

The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik [Rodrik, Dani, 2006. What's so special about China's exports? China and World Economy 14, 1–19.]'s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992–2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate.     

EU‐China Collaboration in the Reform of the International Monetary System: Much Ado About Nothing?

The global financial crisis has shown that the current international monetary system (IMS) suffers from an inherent flaw: it depends on US current account deficits for the provision of global liquidity. Under this arrangement, peripheral countries have to accept periodically the debasement of the US dollar. Thus, there are some mutual incentives for the EU and China to reform the current IMS through cooperation. Both are in favour of stable exchange rates, and both are keen to constrain US macroeconomic profligacy. There have been some efforts towards these objectives in the past, especially during the French presidency of the G20 in 2011. However, there has been no significant progress. On the European side, there is not a united and independent Europe which could act as the primary agent of reform. On the Chinese side, Beijing does not see Europe as a reliable partner because the latter is deemed to have a major vested interest in the current regime. As a result, the French government failed to focus the world's attention on the reform of the IMS during G20 Cannes Summit, and the Chinese government has chosen a more unilateral way to internationalise its own currency.     

Exchange Rates,Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.     

The Erasmus Corner: place-making of a sanitised nightlife spot in the Bairro Alto (Lisbon,Portugal)

Nightlife economic activity has emerged as a key strategy in the regeneration of historical quarters. The case of the Bairro Alto district (Lisbon) exhibits a more gradual and distinct development caused by the marginal and transgressive practices of nightlife visitors, who have resisted its gentrification for decades. Some areas in the Bairro Alto (specially the upper side) have maintained their dangerous character and marginalisation for several years, even after the 2008 urban reform programme. It is only recently, with the growing presence of Erasmus students in Bairro Alto, that the upper side has finally become safe and sanitised through leisure activities. In this article, the interplay of several social actors (foreign students, municipal authorities, night-time entrepreneurs and Erasmus organisers) explains the process of place-making regarding the new Erasmus Corner. The spatial colonisation of this spot has accelerated social cleansing of the upper side of the neighbourhood, concluding the district’s night-time pacification.     

Toward an understanding of online information processing in e-tourism: does national culture matter?

Tourism is undoubtedly among the industries that better reflect the effects of globalization, technological advances (i.e. the Internet) being one of the most relevant drivers. Given the current market saturation of this sector, a better understanding of how tourists from different cultures process online information and forge their attitudes and behavioral intentions is called for. Nevertheless, national culture may have a major influence on the effectiveness of online tourist marketing activities. This study contributes to the extant body of knowledge via the analysis of the influence of perceived risk on how tourists process the information while browsing a tourist destination website, form their attitudes and behavioral intentions toward the destination. The effect of national culture on such antecedents is examined via a cross-cultural research to compare Spanish and British cultures. A theoretical model is proposed to integrate the effect of perceived risk and variables regarding technology acceptance on tourist responses.     

Time-to-build, monetary shocks, and aggregate fluctuations

The idea that the investment process takes time to produce finished capital goods was an integral part of Kydland and Prescott's early work on real business cycles, but this feature has been dropped in much recent work, mainly because it seemed to have little effect on macroeconomic dynamics. With a generalization of the “time-to-build” feature that incorporates multiple types of capital, however, a New Keynesian model can produce “u-shaped” responses in output, investment, and inflation to a monetary policy shock. Such responses are not found in many studies that assume no time-to-build friction. In addition, different specifications of the time-to-build structure result in substantially different response patterns for these aggregate variables.     

Regional output growth and the impact of macroeconomic shocks in Mexico

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between national and regional output growth in Mexico, and the impact of domestic and international shocks on national, regional and state output movements. Our results suggest that there are similarities, but also significant differences, in real output dynamics across the regions and states of Mexico and that it would be wrong to regard the Mexican economy as a homogeneous entity. The results show that real output growth in Mexico and the United States are linked, but there is no common output trend for the two countries. At the regional level, it appears that North and Central Mexico share similar features, but the path of output growth is more distinctive in South Mexico. Overall, our results suggest that assessments of macroeconomic performance, and related discussions of policy, should pay greater attention to the potential diversity in regional performance.     

Adding insult to injury: consumer experiences of being denied credit

To inspire confidence in consumer credit and improve outcomes for consumers, negative experiences such as being denied credit must be handled appropriately. We conducted an online survey with 298 UK citizens who had a credit application denied to gain a better understanding of their experience of being denied credit. We found that privacy issues make this experience more upsetting for consumers than necessary. When being denied credit, respondents are most concerned about (1) being denied credit ‘in public’; and (2) not being informed about the reasons why they are denied. Only 23% of our respondents knew why they had been denied; 116 (62%) believed they had been denied credit because of their credit record, but 28% had never checked it. Out of the 194 respondents who had checked their record, 38 identified errors in their credit reports, and in 14 of these cases (38%) debts that they had paid off were incorrectly listed as outstanding. Based on our findings, we propose several changes to the credit application process: (1) providing sensitive but helpful information in a private manner, e.g. a preview of their credit score before they commit a loan application; (2) credit denial notifications with information on what to do next; and (3) giving applicants more information about checking their credit report and who to contact for correcting errors.     

TESTING FOR PURCHASING POWER PARITY AND UNCOVERED INTEREST PARITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME SHIFTS

Testing for purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been the focus of many empirically oriented studies. While these simple economic theories of exchange rate and interest rate determination are theoretically attractive, the empirical support for these equilibrium conditions is at best mixed. Many potential reasons have been cited in the literature for the failure of such studies, ranging from market imperfections to inappropriate modelling strategies. The current state‐of‐the‐art procedure involves testing for two cointegrating vectors in a multivariate error correction model which may be economically identified as the PPP and UIP relations. However, such a procedure does not account for policy regime shifts which distort the underlying PPP and UIP relations. In this paper, a Markov‐switching vector error correction model (VECM) is considered for time series data in which monetary and exchange rate regime shifts are known to be present. Weak evidence in favour of PPP and UIP is established in a standard linear VECM, although the residuals of this model indicate that it is inappropriate in terms of functional form. The Markov‐switching VECM, however, provides convincing evidence in favour of both the PPP and UIP relations and a marked improvement in the residual distributions.