Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components

The main goal of this paper is to analyze the behavior of the ECM non-cointegration test when there are additive outliers in the time series under different co-breaking situations. We show that the critical values of the usual ECM test are not robust to the presence of transitory shocks and we suggest a procedure based on signal extraction to bypass this problem. These procedure renders ECM tests with a left tail of distribution under the null that is robust to the presence of additive outliers in the series. The small sample critical values and the empirical power of the test are analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations for several low frequency filters. The proposed empirical methodology is applied to the CPI-based US/Finland real exchange rate.JEL Classification: C22, C12, C15, C52, C51 Corresponding author: Alvaro EscribanoWe thank A. Lucas for kindly providing us with the data for the empirical example. Previous drafts of this paper have greatly improved thanks to the comments of two anonymous referees and the Associate Editor. The first author wishes to thank members of Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and Department of Economics, University of Maryland at College Park. The second author acknowledeges support from the following grants: Spanish MCyT BEC2002-00279, The European TMR-ERB-40618C97-0994 and the Secretaría de Estado de Universidades PR2003-0305. This paper was finished while Alvaro Escribano was visiting the Department of Economics, Georgetwon University, Washington DC, USA.     

Human resources audit

Human resource management (HRM) has experienced a strong evolution. In order to provide useful information to managers, it is necessary to evaluate the results generated by the design and implementation of personnel policies. This is the goal of the HR audit that includes two different analyses and valuations: the HR policies and their level of fit with the strategy of the firm, and the characteristics of human capital. Several criteria have been used to assess different HR policies. Nevertheless, the measurement of the value that human capital brings to the firm is a very complex topic. Consequently, different models are being presented that aim to properly solve this challenge. This paper will analyze the HR function from two perspectives: the evaluation of the implemented policies and the quality of human capital in relation to real competencies, and the capability to learn and develop new skills.     

Learning,non-equilibrium beliefs,and non-pecuniary payoffs in an experimental game

Summary. We present a parametric learning model of players' dynamic and possibly out-of-equilibrium beliefs about other players' preferences that also incorporates random utility (noise). We estimate the model using the data from the four-country ultimatum game experiments of Roth et al. (1991). We find evidence that in the US and in Israel, the estimated beliefs of proposers are stationary and out-of-equilibrium, that in Slovenia, they are in equilibrium, and that in Japan, they are out-of-equilibrium, change from period to period and move away from equilibrium over time. In Japan and in the US, the estimated proposers' beliefs are further away from the uniform prior than the estimated equilibrium beliefs. The results seem to provide support for a non-pecuniary payoff explanation in all countries. Received: May 16, 2000; revised version: December 15, 2001 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Alvin Roth for providing us with the data sets of Roth, Prasnikar, Okuno-Fujiwara, and Zamir (1991). We are very grateful to Vincent Crawford, Joel Sobel, and an anonymous referee for all their comments and feedback. We are also grateful to J?rg Borrmann, Bruno Broseta, Jimmy Chan, Liran Einav, Bernd Engelmann, Drew Fudenberg, Oscar Jorda, Muriel Niederle, Pedro Pereira, Georg Weizs?cker, and audiences at the California Institute of Technology, Harvard University, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and at the European Summer Meetings of the Econometric Society in Lausanne for their comments. Costa-Gomes was affiliated with the Harvard Business School during part of his work on this project. The usual disclaimer applies. Correspondence to:M.A. Costa-Gomes and K.G. Zauner     

Beware of the Watchdog: Rethinking the Normative Justification of Gatekeeper Liability

One of the prevailing explanations of the corporate scandals of the Enron era and the recent financial crisis is the failure of professional gatekeepers—such as auditors, corporate lawyers, and securities analysts—to detect and disrupt corporate misconduct. The alleged solution to this failure—typically proposed and justified on consequentialist grounds—is to impose legal liability on professionals. The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the normative foundations of gatekeeper liability. In the course of this paper, I shall defend the claim that gatekeeper liability may be morally objectionable not only on grounds of fairness but also on consequentialist grounds. The expected contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it systematizes the framing and moral justification of gatekeeping duties. Second, it calls into question the normative underpinnings for targeting intermediaries instead of primary wrongdoers. Third, it anticipates some negative (and often overlooked) results of gatekeeping strategies in the accounting profession, specifically in the realm of clientele selection, the expectation gap, and auditor compensation.     

POVERTY IN MEXICO DURING ADJUSTMENT

The paper analyzes the changes in poverty in Mexico during the 1980s adjustment program. We decompose poverty into its distribution and growth components, as well as by population subgroups, in order to illustrate the causes of the deterioration in the standard of living of the poorest of the poor. We suggest a transformation of the methodology by Datt and Ravallion (1992), to determine the likelihood of future compensation for those sectors of the population which suffered higher social costs derived from the contractionary policies. The importance of this exercise, is that it shows that contractionary measures may provoke deep structural transformations in an economy, which can make it more difficult to eradicate poverty in a reasonable time horizon.     

Mathematical Needs and Economic Interpretations

This paper discusses why the disconnection between formal structuresand theoretical content in economic model building can leadto undesirable consequences. By contrast, linking formal andverbal contents by means of coherent and relevant interpretationsis worth the effort: it is a relatively simple way of helpingto improve mathematical economic theorization. By way of illustration,the interpretation that Arrow and Debreu put on the inclusionof free goods in their proof of existence of general equilibriumis also discussed.     

Employee attitudes,customer satisfaction,and sales performance: assessing the linkages in US grocery stores

Using store‐level panel data for a major supermarket company, we investigate the linkages between employee attitudes, customer satisfaction, and sales performance, while controlling for observed and unobserved differences across stores. We find that employee attitudes positively affect customer satisfaction with service but do not affect customer satisfaction with quality or value. Additionally, we find that customer satisfaction with service positively affects sales performance. Our results suggest that employee attitudes affect sales performance through their impact on customer service. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Mexico

This paper addresses the important question whether public investment spending on economic infrastructure enhances economic growth and labor productivity in Mexico. Following the lead of the endogenous growth literature, it presents a modified production function which explicitly includes the positive or negative externality effects generated by additions to the public capital stock. Using cointegration analysis, the paper proceeds to estimate a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1955–94 period that incorporates the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and public capital (as opposed to the flows) and the economically active population (EAP) (rather than the rate of population growth). The results suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending on economic infrastructure—as opposed to overall public investment spending—have a positive and highly significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. In addition, the estimates suggest that increases in government consumption expenditures may have a negative effect on the rate of labor productivity growth, thus suggesting that the composition of government spending may also play an important role in determining the rate of labor productivity growth. Finally, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on economic and social infrastructure to meet targeted reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP.     

Does sovereign debt ratings news spill over to international stock markets?

The evidence here indicates that sovereign debt rating and credit outlook changes of one country have an asymmetric and economically significant effect on the stock market returns of other countries over 1989–2003. There is a negative reaction of 51 basis points (two-day return spread vis-á-vis the US) to a credit ratings downgrade of one notch in a common information spillover around the world. Upgrades, however, have no significant impact on return spreads of countries abroad. Closeness (e.g., geographic proximity) and emerging market status amplify the effect of a spillover. Downgrade spillover effects at the industry level are more pronounced in traded goods and small industries.