The link between personality,aggressive driving,and risky driving outcomes – testing a theoretical model

This study tested a theoretical model of the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors, aggressive driving and ‘risky driving outcomes’ (accidents, traffic tickets, and license suspension). It also tested the mediation effect of aggressive driving in the relationship between the five factor personality model and risky driving outcomes. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the 293 participants’ responses. Bivariate correlations showed that aggressive driving was negatively related to emotional stability, agreeableness, and conscientiousness and positively related to risky driving outcomes. Agreeableness was negatively related to accidents, tickets, and license suspension. Conscientiousness was negatively related to tickets. The structural model was supported by data in which agreeableness predicted risky driving outcomes. Emotional stability, agreeableness, and conscientiousness predicted aggressive driving, which in turn predicted risky driving outcomes. Aggressive driving was shown to be a mediator in the relationship between agreeableness and risky driving outcomes.     

Incentives in the probabilistic serial mechanism

The probabilistic serial mechanism (Bogomolnaia and Moulin, 2001 [9]) is ordinally efficient but not strategy-proof. We study incentives in the probabilistic serial mechanism for large assignment problems. We establish that for a fixed set of object types and an agent with a given expected utility function, if there are sufficiently many copies of each object type, then reporting ordinal preferences truthfully is a weakly dominant strategy for the agent (regardless of the number of other agents and their preferences). The non-manipulability and the ordinal efficiency of the probabilistic serial mechanism support its implementation instead of random serial dictatorship in large assignment problems.     

One-to-One and One-to-Many Business Relationship Marketing: Toward a Theoretical Framework

ABSTRACT

Purpose. This work addresses mixed findings in relationship marketing literature regarding the importance of micro-level (interpersonal) relationships on firm outcome.

Methodology/Approach: The article leverages impression formation theory to advance a framework to understand one-to-one and one-to-many marketing relationships to better predict firm outcome.

Findings: The authors suggest that 5 framework moderators—the type and consistency of the encounters, relationship age, purchase frequency, relationship interruptions, and two customer side characteristics (i.e., need to evaluate [NTE] and need for cognitive closure [NFCC]”)—can qualify the relationship building process and impact the effectiveness of interpersonal and/or group relationships on firm outcome.

Practical Implications: The framework suggests that (1) highly consistent sales team behaviors reduce the risk of losing business in case of a sales team member leaving; (2) low frequency purchases are better suited for one-to-many selling relationships; (3) temporarily suspending relationships by individual salespeople is more harmful than suspending relationships by sales teams; (4) involving the customer in the acquisition process facilitates team selling; and (5) a positive first impression is more important for high (vs. low) NFCC and high NTE customers.

Originality/Value. The theoretical framework (1) distinguishes between individual-to-individual and individual-to-group relationships, (2) suggests a distinction between micro-level individual-to-individual and individual-to-group relationships and macro-level individual-to-firm relationships, (3) analyzes the impact of micro-level relationships under the influence of context-related and customer-related factors, and (4) provides managerially relevant guidelines for strategic sales planning.     

Unique induced preference representations

Machina [Machina, M.J., 1984. Temporal risk and the nature of induced preferences. Journal of Economic Theory 33, 199–231] considers an individual who has to choose from a set of alternative temporal uncertain prospects, and must take an action before the uncertainty is resolved, seeking to maximize the expected value of an (action determined) von Neumann-Morgenstern utility index. It is natural to ask if the set of underlying von Neumann-Morgenstern utility indices can be uniquely recovered solely on the basis of the thus induced (ordinal) preferences over temporal prospects. Machina’s conclusion is that “ordinal preferences alone will not suffice.” However, we show that it is possible to recover the action–utility set inducing the preferences uniquely if we restrict attention to action–utility sets for which no two actions induce the same preference relation on the space of temporal prospects, no action is redundant, and no action leads to a risk free outcome.     

Core tâtonnement

Two discrete time tâtonnement processes—one featuring successive tâtonnement, the other featuring simultaneous tâtonnement—for the core of coalitional games with transferable utility are introduced. For totally balanced games, the successive core tâtonnement process corresponds to the standard simultaneous price tâtonnement process of competitive equilibrium theory via the Shapley-Shubik (market game-direct market) correspondence. The simultaneous core tâtonnement process is based entirely on the intuition behind the definition of the core for games with transferable utility, and it does not correspond to any evident competitive equilibrium tâtonnement process. Both processes are proven to be globally stable. The two processes offer easily implementable algorithms for approximately computing core points.     

A revisit on the tax burden distribution and GDP growth: fresh evidence using a consistent nonparametric test for causality for the USA

We revisited the evidence of Karagianni et al. (Int Rev Econ Fin 21:186–194, 2012) and Tiwari (Econ Bull 32:147–159, 2012) by employing a recently developed and more powerful nonlinear Granger-causality test proposed by Nishiyama et al. (J Econ 165:112–127, 2011) to investigate the existence of Granger-causality from a set of alternative tax burden (ratios) to GDP (per capita GDP), for the period 1947:q1–2009:q3 for the United States of America (USA). The nonlinear Granger-causality test provides strong evidence that personal current taxes and taxes on production and imports Granger-cause GDP and weak evidence that CR Granger-cause GDP. As a consequence, in order to influence (rebalance) the USA’s GDP through taxation, it is recommended to the USA government to adjust the tax structure, focusing on PCT and taxes on production and imports’ shocks. In this case, the tax policy is oriented especially on labour supply and investments.     

Exports,investment and policy uncertainty

Building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty, we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies. We decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately. Consistent with theory, increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but, if anything, increase the intensive margin. In further tests, we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher.     

The gravity model,African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and US trade relations with sub-Saharan Africa

The United States of America enacted the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2000 to grant sub-Saharan African countries (SSA) a preferential treatment in their exports to the USA. With this Act, most of the exports from SSA can now enter the USA duty-free, and this is expected to boost the exporting and manufacturing sectors in SSA. Hopefully, this singular act of assistance from the USA will spur entrepreneurship in SSA, thereby creating jobs and jump starting meaningful economic growth in the region. Since trade is a major catalyst in economic development, AGOA is arguably the most meaningful intervention from a developed country to an under-developed region such as SSA in recent times. Has AGOA had any impact on US trade with SSA? This paper sheds some light on this issue by examining the flow and composition of trade between the USA and AGOA countries. The analysis uses trade data (US imports) for 36 countries over 12 years. Empirical estimations based on the gravity model show that receiving AGOA status has a strong positive and significant impact on overall trade with the US. Interestingly, however, the analysis also shows a disproportionate impact of crude oil imports from the oil-producing countries of Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria, which is clearly not the intent of the Act.     

Using R&D portfolio management to deal with dynamic risk

We develop a theoretical framework for understanding why firms adopt specific approaches for the management of innovation project portfolios. Our theory focuses on a key contingency factor for innovation, namely the dynamics of competitive environments. We use four dimensions to characterize the patterns of environmental dynamics: velocity, turbulence, growth and instability. The paper then proposes the concept of dynamic risk as a determinant of portfolio management processes. Dynamic risk results from second‐order learning by a firm confronted with a specific dynamic pattern in its environment. This learning concerns the likely nature of threats and the required updating of cognitive frameworks in such environments. Attempts to deal with dynamic risk enable various actors inside the firm to understand what kind of dynamic capabilities are needed in their innovation portfolio management processes. As a result of this diffuse learning, firms tend to favor certain common characteristics in their concrete portfolio management activities. To advance the theorizing of these characteristics, the paper also proposes four dimensions of portfolio management: structure, commitment, emergence and integration. Based on arguments inspired by the dynamic capability and related literatures, we advance a series of hypotheses, that relate environmental dynamics dimensions and portfolio management dimensions. These hypotheses are tested based on a survey of 795 firms in a variety of sectors and on four continents, using original scales and structural equation modeling methods. The results show, among other findings, that high‐velocity environments favor structured as well as integrated portfolio management approaches, while high‐growth environments favor approaches that are structured but commit significant resources to each project as well. Turbulent environments favor approaches that are emergent, but also, contrary to our expectations, have high resource commitment levels. Finally, firms in unstable environments have a marginal preference for emergent approaches. Results could help advance the dynamic contingency theoretical perspective on dynamic capabilities, as well as improve the practice of innovation portfolio management.     

Bargaining and efficiency in networks

We study an infinite horizon game in which pairs of players connected in a network are randomly matched to bargain over a unit surplus. Players who reach agreement are removed from the network without replacement. The global logic of efficient matchings and the local nature of bargaining, in combination with the irreversible exit of player pairs following agreements, create severe hurdles to the attainment of efficiency in equilibrium. For many networks all Markov perfect equilibria of the bargaining game are inefficient, even as players become patient. We investigate how incentives need to be structured in order to achieve efficiency via subgame perfect, but non-Markovian, equilibria. The analysis extends to an alternative model in which individual players are selected according to some probability distribution, and a chosen player can select a neighbor with whom to bargain.