The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies

In this paper, we investigate the impact of US uncertainty shocks on GDP growth in nine small open economies: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We compare the impact of two types of shocks: i) stock market volatility shocks and ii) policy uncertainty shocks. Using quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2016Q1, this issue is analysed using Bayesian VAR models. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty seems to matter more than stock market volatility. Stock market volatility shocks appear to robustly have significant effects on Danish GDP growth. Policy uncertainty shocks, on the other hand, reliably lowers GDP growth in all five Nordic countries in a statistically significant manner. Statistically significant effects of policy uncertainty shocks on the Anglo-Saxon countries in our sample are harder to establish and are, in our preferred specification, only found for the United Kingdom.     

Macroeconomic Expectations and the Size,Value, and Momentum Factors

When examining the sources of risk associated with priced factors, the prior literature often uses macroeconomic realizations to proxy for changes in expectations. However, realizations can be biased, so instead we use changes in macroeconomic forecasts and macroeconomic news surprises. The sensitivity of common factors to macroeconomic risks is not robust, and generally economically and statistically insignificant. Sometimes the factors even hedge risk. Importantly, the weak relation between the factors and risks is not the result of low powered tests. These findings are inconsistent with the notion that the factors are priced because they proxy for the macroeconomic risks examined.     

A neglected contribution to monetary theory in the eighteenth century: Anders Wappengren on paper money,floating exchange rates,and purchasing power parity

Abstract

Between 1789 and 1803 the National Debt Office issued unbacked interest bearing notes whereas the Bank of Sweden issued silver backed notes. The massive note issuance by the National Debt Office led to different exchange rates and two units of account. The situation gave rise to an early paper standard theory formulated by Anders Wappengren, a well-read merchant who was strongly influenced by Adam Smith and the French physiocrats. Wappengren had a firm understanding of monetary systems and the adjustment mechanism under floating exchange rates, including such concepts as purchasing power parity and price stickiness.     

Deadlines and distractions

We consider a task, demanding a sequence of efforts, that must be completed by a deadline. Effort is not contractible. Agents face shocks to their opportunity cost of time and are sometimes distracted from work. We show that agents who are often distracted may outperform agents who are distracted less often. The reason is that anticipation of distractions induces agents to start earlier for precautionary reasons. Principals can increase the probability of completion, and achieve higher profits, by strategically setting “tight” deadlines, provided that the deadlines can be extended with some positive probability.     

Testing Steady‐State Restrictions of Linear Rational Expectations Models when Data are Highly Persistent*

Steady‐state restrictions are commonly imposed on highly persistent variables to achieve stationarity prior to confronting rational expectations models with data. However, the resulting steady‐state deviations are often surprisingly persistent indicating that some aspects of the underlying theory may be empirically problematic. This paper discusses how to formulate steady‐state restrictions in rational expectations models with latent forcing variables and test their validity using cointegration techniques. The approach is illustrated by testing steady‐state restrictions for alternative specifications of the New Keynesian model and shown to be able to discriminate between different assumptions on the sources of the permanent shocks.     

Opportunity or threat? Finnish hunters’ attitudes to hunting tourism

This article examines elements of the social sustainability of hunting tourism development by scrutinising Finnish hunters’ opinions on three possible scenarios related to hunting tourism: the threat of an exclusion of local hunters, the threat of rising rents of hunting land and the threat to Finnish hunting customs and practice due to increasing numbers of foreign hunting tourists. Hunters’ positions on these three issues are mapped and the determinants of their attitudes are analysed using unique national survey data on Finnish hunters and their attitudes (N= 1193). The results show a clear ambivalence to hunting tourism among hunters. While a majority of hunters tend to view hunting tourism as a threat, a large minority relate to it more positively. These attitudinal patterns can be explained only partly by socioeconomic factors, whereas factors pertaining to hunting experience and hunting profile play a somewhat more prominent role in understanding the legitimacy that hunting tourism enjoys in the eyes of hunters in Finland. Age, rural residence and participation in wildlife management are also found important for some issues. The ambiguities revealed could pose major problems for social sustainability and hunting tourism management and development.     

INEQUALITY AND MOBILITY OF WEALTH IN SWEDEN 1983/184–1992/193

Using longitudinal data which include real estate wealth, financial assets as well as consumer durables, changes in the distribution of wealth in Sweden are related to major changes in asset prices and in incentives to hold various assets in the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. Our analysis of the mobility of wealth indicates that decile mobility is higher in Sweden than in the U.S., while the analysis of who is gaining and who is loosing shows results similar to those of previous studies.     

Trading activity,realized volatility and jumps

This paper takes a new look at the relation between volume and realized volatility. In contrast to prior studies, we decompose realized volatility into two major components: a continuously varying component and a discontinuous jump component. Our results confirm that the number of trades is the dominant factor shaping the volume–volatility relation, whatever the volatility component considered. However, we also show that the decomposition of realized volatility bears on the volume–volatility relation. Trade variables are positively related to the continuous component only. The well-documented positive volume–volatility relation does not hold for jumps.     

UML modelling concepts of HAZOP to enhance the ability to identify emerging risks

Unified Modelling Language (UML) has a graphical notation for 13 different types of diagrams and can be used as a general modelling tool. Well-known examples of diagram types are class diagrams for modelling classes that can be instanced into objects, state machine diagrams for modelling states in systems and activity diagrams for modelling process flows. A literature survey shows that UML has been used to model concepts and methodologies of risk assessment and risk management. One example is the Coras Framework. The international standard CEI IEC 61882 Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies describes concepts for investigating and detecting possible hazards in systems. In CEI IEC 6882, guide words like ‘More’ and ‘Less’ are applied to system parameters to invoke deviations in the system and assess possible hazards due to the deviation from the design intent. In this paper, we have used UML to model concepts of CEI IEC 61882 Hazards and operability studies. Diagrams of UML were used to show dependencies and relations between parts of the target system and concepts of CEI IEC 61882. Extensions of UML are suggested to better capture and display the concepts of CEI IEC 61882, the results of a HAZOP study and emerging risk. These extensions are referred to as UML for emerging risks (UML-ER).