Plucking models of business cycle fluctuations: Evidence from the G-7 countries

Friedman's `plucking' model, in which output cannot exceed a ceiling level but is occasionally plucked downward by recessions, is tested using Kim and Nelson's formal econometric specification on output data from the G-7 countries. Considerable support for the model is obtained, leading us to conclude that during normal periods, output seems to be driven mostly by permanent shocks, but during recessions and high-growth recoveries, transitory shocks dominate. During these periods macroeconomic models that emphasise demand-oriented shocks, rather than real business cycle type models, may thus be more appropriate. First Version Received: September 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001     

Crisis and recovery in office markets

From 1987 to 1993, U.S. office markets were in a depression similar in length and magnitude to that of the 1930s. Vacancy rates doubled, development nearly halted, and prices and rents fell precipitously. A disaster of this magnitude requires multiple causes. Poor tax policies in Washington were important causes, as was a pervasive tendency of developers and others to overforecast the growth of office employment. However, the difference between this and earlier postwar office recessions appears to be explained mostly by the effects of the microchip revolution, which entered a new phase starting in the mid-1980s. The paper concludes with relatively optimistic notes on the likely demand growth that will result from the new and improved services that the microchip revolution will permit.     

Transferable development rights markets

Several legislative proposals utilizing the concept of transferable development rights have been advanced in recent years. A chief claim made by their proponents is that the concept enables the same kind of constructive land market intervention as direct land-use controls but without an inequitable distribution of development gains. The validity of this claim is established for certain circumstances in this paper and two specific cases where the concept may be useful are described.     

Great ratios and Common Cycles: Do They Exist for the UK?

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions between postwar, quarterly UK consumption, investment and income within a VAR framework. Use is made of two developments which allow sets of restrictions to be tested and imposed, and which potentially make the VAR framework much more economically interpretable. One set is placed by neoclassical growth theory and involves the presence of common stochastic trends linking the secular movement of the series (i.e. the great ratios), while the other set is placed by notions of common, or more generally, codependent cycles which have their origin in ideas of comovements between growth rates. Evidence is found to support the existence of the great ratios for the UK, and evidence is also found of a codependent cycle of order one in the growth rates of consumption, investment and income, so that although the cycles are not exactly synchronized, the response of the three growth rates to a shock will be similar from two quarters after the shock has occurred. Moreover, it is lagged consumption shocks that are primarily driving the cycle.     

MODELLING THE TREND: THE HISTORICAL ORIGINS OF SOME MODERN METHODS AND IDEAS

The development of the methods of correlation and regression analysis at the turn of the 20th century led to their use in attempting to identify relationships between economic variables. However, caution was soon expressed that correlating series with ‘secular’ trends was likely to be misleading. After some discussion of methods, linear detrending by least‐squares estimation became the default method. By the 1920s, however, some voices of dissent expressed the view that linear detrending was likely to be inappropriate in some, even many, cases. This led to a number of innovative methodological developments, including rolling window estimation, moving integration, non‐linear trends, structural breaks, sigmoid‐type smooth adjustment functions, the beginnings of stochastic trend modelling and the construction of ‘smoothers’ and filters. Although generally failing to have an impact at the time, all substantially predate their current use in econometrics. This paper establishes precedence for these ideas and recreates some of the empirical examples and early simulations.     

Wet and wild: results from a pilot study assessing injuries among recreational water users in Western Australia

To identify, describe and compare injuries among three water sport activities: kite surfing (KS), personal watercraft (PWC) and towed water sports (TWS). The study was a cross sectional, online survey. The setting was on Perth, Western Australia's popular beaches and riverbanks. Main outcome measures were number of injuries and level of severity; level of exposure and protection measures. Overall, 43% reported at least one injury in the past 12 months, a rate of 22.3 injuries per 100 h. Kite surfers were more likely to report an injury than PWC or TWS. One-half of injuries occurred while on the water. Most injuries were caused by landing awkwardly (56%) and/or trying new tricks (41%). Despite 90% of respondents having used at least one personal protective equipment (PPE) item, half (49%) reported always using a personal floatation device. This study provided information on KS, PWC and TWS injuries as well as a range of safety behaviours. It is recommended that these results form the basis of further research to reduce injury rates and encourage the use of PPE items.     

Does dispositional mindfulness moderate how individuals engage in their passions? An investigation into video games

ABSTRACT

The Dualistic Model of Passion (DMP) is an emerging framework in social psychology that assesses individuals’ passion for an activity. Although a passion parallels the definition for a serious leisure activity, the DMP further differentiates between a harmonious (HP) versus an obsessive (OP) passion, which are associated with adaptive versus maladaptive outcomes, respectively. Building on recent research in the area of mindfulness and the growing interest in problem video gaming, the present study explores the effect of dispositional mindfulness on reports of HP and OP. An online sample of adult video game users (N = 1,124; 68.95% male) completed assessments of their passion for video gaming as well as their dispositional mindfulness. Results revealed a negative association between dispositional mindfulness and OP for video gaming, but no association between dispositional mindfulness and HP for video gaming. Further, a moderation effect was found such that high dispositional mindfulness appears to protect against internalizing an OP for video gaming. Finally, results from a latent profile generally supported the role dispositional mindfulness plays in reducing the severity of OP for video gaming. The implications for theory and positive video game engagement are discussed.