Biased and overconfident,unbiased but going for it: How framing and anchoring affect the decision to start a new venture

Cognitive heuristics, biases, and overconfidence have been suggested as an explanation for entrepreneurial entry. Nevertheless, empirical research on the subject has produced mixed findings and has under-explored the cognitive mechanisms leading to overconfidence in entrepreneurial settings. In two within-subject experiments, we focus on three cognitive heuristics—reference point framing, outcome salience framing, and anchoring in conjunctive events—and examine their effects on perceived risk, confidence, required and estimated probabilities of success, and the decision to start a new venture. Our findings show that reference point framing and outcome salience framing affect the decision to enter directly and indirectly via risk perception, but do not affect confidence. In addition, the effect of anchoring is contingent on the congruence between its semantic and its numeric influences. Overconfidence only obtains when the numeric and semantic influences of anchoring are aligned and aimed at enhancing the salience of potential positive outcomes, i.e., through high probabilities of success.     

运用全球趋势考察中国汽车产业

通过分析全球趋势与自己所在行业复杂而并不十分明显的相互作用方式，战略专家们可以挑战传统智慧．并更好地为不确定性未雨绸缪。     

刍议跨国并购交易中的几个关注因素

在全球经历了五次并购浪潮后，越来越多的中国公司希望通过跨国并购的形式寻求海外投资机会，实现跨越式发展。有鉴于此．中华咨询与美国波士顿商学院联合进行了跨国并购领域的专项研究，     

CSR Information Disclosure on the Web: A Context-Based Approach Analysing the Influence of Country of Origin and Industry Sector

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become a much-discussed subject in the business world. The Internet has become one of the main tools for CSR information disclosure, allowing companies to publicise more information less expensively and faster than ever before. As a result, corporations are increasingly concerned with communicating ethically and responsibly to the diversity of stakeholders through the web. This paper addresses the main question as whether CSR information disclosure on corporate websites is influenced by country of origin and/or industry sector. Analysing the websites of 127 corporations from emerging countries, such as Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Thailand and South Africa, it becomes evident that both country of origin and industry sector have a significant influence over CSR information disclosure on the web (CSRIDOW). Based on the data studied, country of origin has a stronger influence over CSRIDOW than industry sector.