A Note on Asymmetry in Commodity Futures Markets

This study tests for asymmetry in futures price changes using commodities from a variety of groups such as agricultural, metals, and financials. Tests are used to determine whether or not prices move up in the same fashion as they move down, over varying data frequencies. The results indicate that every commodity analyzed shows at least some degree of asymmetry.
Nous avons scruté les signes éventuels d'asymétrie dans l'évolution des prix à terme de certaines catégories de produits agricoles, industriels (pétrole et métaux) et boursiers. Des tests ont été utilisés pour déterminer si les prix moment de la même façon qu'ils descendent pour diverses fréquences d'établissement des prix (quotidien, hebdomadaire, mensuel). Il ressort de ces analyses que chaque type de produit comportait au mains un certain degré d'asymétrie.     

刍议跨国并购交易中的几个关注因素

在全球经历了五次并购浪潮后,越来越多的中国公司希望通过跨国并购的形式寻求海外投资机会,实现跨越式发展。有鉴于此．中华咨询与美国波士顿商学院联合进行了跨国并购领域的专项研究,     

Role of education and extension in the adoption of technology: a study of upland rice and soybean farmers in Central-West Brazil

This paper explores reduced form determinants of the adoption of certain technologies by upland rice and soybean farmers in the Center-West region of Brazil. We merge community level data on the availability and quality of publicly provided infrastructure, principally extension, to the farm level data containing information on farmer human capital as well as land quantity and quality. By using community level measures of availability and quality of extension, we avoid problems of endogeneity of farm level measures of extension use. We find positive impacts of farmer education on the diffusion process, in accordance with other studies. We also isolate effects of the quality in regional extension investment as measured by the average experience of technical extension staff. These results indicate that investments in human capital of extension workers does have a payoff in terms of farmer adoption of improved cultivation practices.     

Neural Networks for Forecasting: An Introduction

Neural networks are nonlinear mapping structures based on the study of the human brain. They have been shown to be universal and highly flexible junction approximators to any data-generating process. Therefore, they are powerful models for forecasting purposes, especially when the underlying data-generating processes are unknown. However, the appropriate design of the network's architecture and learning rules are crucial for obtaining satisfactory results. This study discusses the scope and limitations of neural networks for forecasting problems and provides an example by designing a neural network for forecasting. It is argued that statistical theory can offer some suggestions for designing an optimal network architecture. An example comparing a neural network and ARIM model for forecasting weekly corn prices 1974 through 1993 is provided. Results show the neural network model to be more accurate than the ARIMA.     

Cost-benefit analysis of alien vegetation clearing for water yield and tourism in a mountain catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa

Economic analysis is used to assess the costs and benefits of restoration following clearing of invasive alien trees in the floristically rich Fynbos mountainous area near Franschhoek, Western Cape of South Africa. The Groot Drakenstein, Franschhoek and Jonkershoek mountains receives more rainfall than the surrounding areas and is an important source of water for the city of Cape Town. The costs of alien invasive plant removal, gully-erosion repair and reseeding with indigenous plants are considered in a case-study cost-benefit analysis of restoration, in terms of the water and tourism benefits derived. Three different options of restoration (comprehensive, moderate, basic) were analysed under three different economic scenarios (optimistic, realistic, pessimistic) and the costs of which have been weighted up against the income derived from the supply of water and tourism. The results have shown that despite the high costs of restoration, the basic restoration option costs were out-weighed by the water and tourism benefits derived. This was also true of the moderate restoration option, when evaluated under the optimistic scenario and using an 8% discount rate, or a 3% discount rate under any scenario. However, this was not the case in the moderate restoration option when using an 8% discount rate in conjunction with the realistic and pessimistic scenarios. Neither was it the case when using a 12% discount rate, irrespective of the scenario. Under no scenario was the cost of a comprehensive restoration option outweighed by the benefits quantified, irrespective of the discount rate used. It was concluded that further restoration, in addition to the mere clearing of alien invasive plants, would be economically viable under certain assumptions and conditions.     

Bringing Culture to Macroeconomics

A two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed to examine the interaction between the cultural and noncultural sectors of the economy. It stresses three aspects of cultural economics that have been much discussed in the literature: (i) the productivity lag in the production of cultural goods, described by Baumol and Bowen (1996); (ii) the role of cultural capital in production; and (iii) the treatment of cultural goods as an acquired taste along the lines of Becker’s notion of positive rational addiction. The results suggest that the more significant the role played by cultural capital in the economy, the greater will be the growth rates of output in both sectors of the economy. The model is suggestive of future research into the importance of the macroeconomy on the cultural sector, and the potential importance of the cultural sector on the macroeconomy.