Manufacturing Industries in the UK: Was there Convergence during the 1968–1992 Period?

This paper uses detailed industry level time-series data for the UK regions which suggests that convergence (at least in terms of output-per-employee) was not occurring during the period 1968–92. Based on testing for unit roots, it is found that in a majority of industries and regions growth was divergent, and consequently there is little empirical support for the neoclassical 'long‐run catch up' model.     

On the utility premium of Friedman and Savage

We re-examine the utility premium of Friedman–Savage [Friedman, Milton and Savage, Leonard J., “The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk.” Journal of Political Economy 56, 1948, pp. 279–304.]. This measure is useful in understanding risky choices. For instance its reaction to an increased wealth equates to a precautionary demand for saving. We also analyze its two components.     

Consumer Socialization and the Role of Branding in Hazardous Adolescent Drinking

This study examines the relationship between alcohol marketing and consumer socialization to alcohol brands (assessed here using aided and unaided brand recognition and brand saliency), and the associated relationship between consumer socialization and hazardous alcohol consumption among a cohort of adolescents surveyed in Scotland. The research addresses gaps in the consumer socialization literature, by examining how marketing influences brand consumer socialization, and how brand consumer socialization influences subsequent hazardous consumption behavior over time, using a robust longitudinal design that assesses causal relationships while controlling for a wide range of important confounding variables. The results demonstrate the contribution of marketing to adolescents’ brand socialization to alcohol and the impact of this socialization on subsequent drinking behaviors. Implications for marketing managers, parents, policymakers, and consumer researchers are discussed, together with suggestions for future consumer research.     

Inflation,Translation and Conflicts in Statements of Financial Accounting Standards*

This paper utilizes the concept of aggregative consistency defined in Rubinstein and Fishburn [1986], and the FASB's concept of representational faithfulness to evaluate foreign currency translation and accounting for changing prices as embodied in SFAS 70. The paper shows that SFAS 70 produces measurement errors and creates a foreign currency translation adjustment which does not reflect the effects of exchange rate changes. The conditions defined in the paper also facilitate an evaluation of the relative merits of restate/translate and translate/restate. Restate/translate can conceivably be used if there is no consolidation. In the more usual case where consolidation is required, translate/restate using the relevant shareholders' consumption index will yield aggregatively consistent values under fewer restrictive conditions.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

Rate Level Indexed Mortgages: An Evaluation

In this paper, a new and superior alternative mortgage design is presented and evaluated. The mortgage design is motivated by a desire to reduce the exposure of both borrowers and lenders to risks that result from high and variable interest rates, while at the same time providing a mechanism by which changes in the real value of payments and rates of amortization can be controlled. In addition to a theoretical discussion of the merits of this design a simulation of the mortgage's performance is provided that uses market data from the period 1965 to 1983.     

COLONIALISM AND LONG‐RUN GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA: AN EXAMINATION OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN VICTORIA'S WATER SECTOR DURING THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

Institutional change in water rights in the nineteenth century Australian colony of Victoria raised institutional efficiency, which contributed to long‐run economic growth. High‐quality human capital and the extension of voting rights (franchise) were crucial for efficient institutional change in the water sector. Quality human capital (literacy) appeared to increase the rural population's awareness of the economic impact of the existing structure of water rights that may have constrained growth in the agricultural sector and reduced investment incentives. Extension of the franchise allowed the rural population to exert political pressure for enactment of change in water rights, which resulted in efficiency‐enhancing policies and efficient institutions. The findings show these two factors were more important than Victoria's British colonial heritage in determining whether growth‐enhancing institutional change took place.     

Evaluating the Contribution of Exporting to UK Productivity Growth: Some Microeconomic Evidence

This study assesses the contribution of exporting activities to aggregate productivity growth in the UK for all market‐based sectors for the period 1996–2004, using a weighted FAME dataset. Based on decompositions of productivity growth, our findings suggest that, overall, exporting firms experience faster productivity growth than non‐exporting firms and therefore contribute more to national productivity growth. In addition, aggregate productivity for exporters benefits from a large contribution from ‘continuing’ firms improving their productivity, as well as exporters that have been taken‐over/merged or started‐up as new firms. In contrast, most of the TFP improvement for non‐exporters is attributable to lower productivity firms exiting, rather than from internal improvements or the productivity‐enhancing impact of new firms.     

Primary vs secondary prophylaxis with pegfilgrastim for the reduction of febrile neutropenia risk in patients receiving chemotherapy for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma: cost-effectiveness analyses

Objective:

Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of primary vs secondary prophylaxis (PP vs SP) with pegfilgrastim to reduce the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) in Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma (NHL) patients receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy from a US payer perspective.

Methods:

A Markov model was used to compare PP vs SP with pegfilgrastim in a cohort of patients receiving six cycles of cyclophosphamide, vincristine, doxorubicin, and prednisone (CHOP) or CHOP plus rituximab (CHOP-R) chemotherapy. Model inputs, including efficacy of pegfilgrastim in reducing risk of FN and costs, were estimated from publicly available sources and peer-reviewed publications. Incremental cost-effectiveness was evaluated in terms of net cost per life-year saved (LYS), per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and per FN event avoided over a lifetime horizon. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses were performed to assess sensitivity and robustness of results.

Results:

Lifetime costs for PP were $5000 greater than for SP; however, PP was associated with fewer FN events and more LYs and QALYs gained vs SP. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PP vs SP for CHOP were $13,400 per FN event avoided, $29,500 per QALY gained, and $25,800 per LYS. CHOP-R results were similar ($15,000 per FN event avoided, $33,000 per QALY gained, and $28,900 per LYS). Results were most sensitive to baseline FN risk, cost per FN episode, and odds ratio for reduced relative dose intensity due to prior FN event. PP was cost-effective vs SP in 85% of simulations at a $50,000 per QALY threshold.

Limitations:

In the absence of NHL-specific data, estimates for pegfilgrastim efficacy and relative risk reduction of FN were based on available data for neoadjuvant TAC in patients with breast cancer. Baseline risks of FN for CHOP and CHOP-R were assumed to be equivalent.

Conclusions:

PP with pegfilgrastim is cost-effective compared to SP with pegfilgrastim in NHL patients receiving CHOP or CHOP-R.