Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models

We propose an early warning system to timely forecast turbulence in the US stock market. In a first step, a Markov-switching model with two regimes (a calm market and a turbulent market) is developed. Based on the time series of the monthly returns of the S&P 500 price index, the corresponding filtered probabilities are successively estimated. In a second step, the turbulent phase of the model is further specified to distinguish between bullish and bearish trends. For comparison only, a Markov-switching model with three states (a calm market, a turbulent bullish market, and a turbulent bearish market) is examined as well. In a third step, logistic regression models are employed to forecast the filtered probabilities provided by the Markov-switching models. A major advantage of the presented modeling framework is the timely identification of the factors driving the different phases of the capital market. In a fourth step, the early warning system is applied to an asset management case study. The results show that explicit consideration of the models’ signals yields better portfolio performance and lower portfolio risk compared to standard buy-and-hold and constant proportion portfolio insurance strategies.     

货币传导异质性与实体经济流动性配置的“马太效应”

货币政策支持实体经济高质量发展的关键在于疏通货币政策传导机制,引导流动性进入重点领域和薄弱环节,因此货币资金的配置效率至关重要。本文基于交互效应面板分位数回归,测度货币政策对实体企业流动性的异质性效应。研究发现:在样本期内,实体经济流动性配置陷入了资金越充裕的企业越易于获得融资,越易于获得融资的企业资金越充裕的窘境。这种流动性配置的“马太效应”具体表现为,货币政策对尾部企业的支持力度不及头部企业的一半;虚拟经济对尾部企业的“分流效应”高达头部企业的3倍,从而强化了流动性配置的失衡。因此,当前密集出台的一系列普惠政策有助于提升流动性配置效率,进一步完善调控模式的关键在于健全现代化金融体系,增强货币政策的靶向性和针对性。     

试谈素质教育中实践能力的培养

素质教育的目的是全面贯彻党的教育方针,提高国民素质,培养学生的创造精神和实践能力。而实践能力是人的能力的重要成分,是学会做事的具体体现,是学生生存发展的需要。教育要注重知行统一,坚持教育教学与生产劳动、社会实践相结合,增强学生解决实际问题的本领和自主探究学习的能力。     

引入外资对银行风险承担的影响研究——基于我国153家商业银行的经验证据

文章基于中国153家商业银行2001-2017年的非平衡面板数据,采用双重差分模型研究了引入外资对银行风险承担的影响.实证结果表明:引入外资降低了中国商业银行的风险承担,外资股东发挥了积极的外溢效应和监督作用;外资持股比例与中国商业银行风险承担之间呈非线性的U型关系;引入外资影响中国商业银行的商业模式,引入外资的银行的非利息收入占比下降、非存款类负债占比上升,收入结构注重稳健且融资结构得到优化.上述研究结论的政策启示为:积极学习境外金融机构的先进知识和技术,建立可持续发展的合作伙伴关系;高度重视金融稳定,对外资进入中国银行体系实行分类管理;适度稳妥地推进中国银行业对外开放,把握好金融开放与金融安全之间的战略平衡.     

Seemingly inconsistent analyst revisions

In about 20%–30% of cases where an analyst revises two outputs (namely, earnings estimates, target prices, or stock recommendations) simultaneously, the two estimates are revised in opposite directions. Existing literature notes that these inconsistent outputs are widespread, and concludes that they are lower-quality, driven by strategic bias, and are viewed as less valid by investors. We find that these characterizations are generally inaccurate. Apparent inconsistency is largely driven by accounting and economic factors, with only limited evidence that investment banking-related conflicts play a role. Moreover, inconsistent outputs are neither less accurate than consistent outputs nor do they resolve less investor uncertainty upon their release. Overall, our results suggest that researchers should be cautious in interpreting the correlation between analyst outputs as a measure of bias or quality, and in using a single analyst output as a proxy for an analyst's overall views.     

人才培养目标与教学管理水平的关系整合——以高职土建类专业为例

高职土建类专业人才培养目标与教学管理有着密切的关系。教学管理对人才培养目标的实现产生多方面的影响,主要体现在目标管理、过程管理、绩效管理三个方面,在明确学生学习目标、激励学生学习动力、调动学生学习积极性、引导学生全面发展等方面具有举足轻重的作用。为了更好地实现人才培养目标,应实现教学管理重心从传统的过程管理向目标管理和绩效管理的根本性转变。     

On a general periodic preventive maintenance policy incorporating warranty contracts and system ageing losses

In this paper, a general periodic preventive maintenance (PM) policy for a repairable revenue-generating system is developed and studied. We define ‘ageing losses’ as the difference in revenues generated by an ideal system (no ageing) and a real system that ages over the same period of consideration. It is assumed that preventive maintenance slows the system deterioration process and therefore reduces ageing losses. The proposed model is general in the sense that (1) both the warranty contracts and system ageing losses are incorporated in the maintenance cost modeling and (2) the implementation of PM actions does not have to be strictly periodic. A cost model is developed for the buyer under two decision variables—the calendar time of the first PM and the degree of each PM. Numerical examples are then presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analyses are further conducted to investigate the impact of model parameters on optimal solutions.     

文化金融合作区的发展模式与运营机制研究

本文在分析文化金融合作内涵与要素的基础上,比较了文化金融合作区的发展模式,围绕文化产业链和价值链,从协作、对接、中介服务及保障四个层面,阐述了文化金融合作区的运营机制,最后从产业政策、产业生态和产业特色三个角度,提出了我国文化金融合作区的发展思路与对策。     

新机制下新建天然气管道运价和效益分析——《天然气管道运输价格管理办法(试行)》剖析之二

在新的管输定价管理办法下,对于新成立企业和现有企业来说,同样规模的新建管道项目,管输运价和经济效益明显不同.新管输企业新建管道项目在投产前后分别采用项目评价法和服务成本法定价,现有企业新建管道项目并入在役管道作为一个运营整体核定管输运价.因建设期、达产期、增值税抵扣、运营负荷等因素的影响,新建管道项目评价期的财务内部收益率均无法达到项目基准收益率.新政策将对管道企业的运营带来显著压力,对管道行业的投资将产生明显的导向性.     

水工建筑的基础灌浆施工技术研究

在建筑行业当中,水工建筑的基础施工质量会影响整体质量.本文采取文献研究法来探究水工建筑中基础灌浆施工技术的应用及其相关事项,从而探究其发展的途径.本篇文章将通过水工建筑的基础灌浆施工技术的介绍,分析该技术在水工建筑实际中的使用效果,讲述其主要内容,并对该项技术进行一系列分析和研究,分析不同地点使用基础灌浆施工技术的要点.在满足人民对建筑要求及需求的同时,做到对水工建筑的质量提供有效保障.