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1.
Patrick Minford Michael Wickens Yongdeng Xu 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2019,81(1):178-194
We propose a way of testing a subset of equations of a DSGE model. The test draws on statistical inference for limited information models and the use of indirect inference to test DSGE models. Using the numerical small sample distribution of our test for two subsets of equations of the Smets–Wouters model we show that the test has accurate size and good power in small samples, and better power than using asymptotic distribution theory. In a test of the Smets–Wouters model on US Great Moderation data, we reject the specification of the wage‐price but not the expenditure sector. This points to the wage‐price sector as the source of overall model rejection. 相似文献
2.
Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This paper examines the causal structure among the daily corn futures and seven cash price series from Midwestern states from January 3, 2006, to March... 相似文献
3.
In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate. 相似文献
4.
This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin). 相似文献
5.
This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government. 相似文献
6.
This study analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of subsidies to attract multinational corporations when firms are determining whether to enter or how to serve foreign markets. We show that a small FDI subsidy scheme induces consumption gains and delivers short‐term welfare improvement for the FDI host country if firms differ in productivity. However, the subsidy generates a new problem and results in the wealth reallocation effect, leading to welfare deterioration for the host country in the long run. Moreover, we find that a subsidy program induces a welfare improvement for the host country if it is offered to all domestic producers instead of foreign producers only in the host country. 相似文献
7.
如何减少欺骗是当前中国社会普遍面临的问题。文章结合社会地位理论和自我概念理论,研究了减少欺骗行为的机制。我们利用实验室实验,区分先赋性和自致性两种地位获取方式,用欺骗博弈来检验不同社会地位来源对欺骗决策的影响。结果发现,个人通过真实劳动获得的自致性社会地位可以显著减少欺骗行为;由于幸运得到的先赋性社会地位不能减少欺骗行为。同时,非物质收益的社会地位比赋予物质收益的社会地位更有效减少欺骗行为,说明物质收益是对市场化自我概念的提醒,从而无助于降低欺骗。研究结果在剔除策略性行为后依然稳健。研究有效验证了Mazar et al.(2008)关于影响欺骗行为的自我概念内在决定机制,并对各类组织提升诚信管理具有重要借鉴意义。 相似文献
8.
根据经合组织统计的各国服务贸易限制政策条款,先对具体政策条款赋值,接下来加权得到衡量服务贸易限制的STRI指标,最终检验目的 国服务贸易限制对中国企业出口规模的影响.研究发现:在控制引力模型的其他变量以及企业-产品层面的特征变量后,目的 国服务贸易限制政策显著阻碍了中国企业出口规模扩张,且阻碍作用对一般贸易企业、大中型企业更明显.对影响机制而言,服务贸易限制政策造成的固定成本阻碍了企业出口的扩展边际,而引起的可变成本阻碍了企业出口的集约边际,其中,对集约边际的阻碍作用更大;进一步对集约边际分解发现,目的 国服务贸易限制政策降低了企业出口产品数量,但提高了企业出口产品价格.另外,拓展研究发现,目的 国数字化服务贸易开放能够缓解服务贸易限制政策对企业出口的阻碍作用. 相似文献
9.
10.
This paper uses a reduced‐form approach to derive a closed‐form pricing formula for defaultable bonds. The authors specify the default hazard rate as an affine function of multiple variables which follow the Lévy jump‐diffusion processes. Because such specification allows greater flexibility in the generation of a valid probability of default, their pricing model should be more accurate than the valuation models in traditional studies, which ignore the jump effects. This paper also proposes a new method for estimating the parameters in a Lévy Jump‐diffusion process. The real data from the Taiwanese bond market are used to illustrate how their model can be applied in practical situations. The authors compare the pricing results for the influential variables with no jump effects, with jump magnitudes following the normal distribution, and with jump magnitudes following the gamma distribution. The results reveal that the predictive ability is the best for the model with the jump components. The valuation model shown in this paper should help portfolio managers more accurately price defaultable bonds and more effectively hedge their portfolio holdings. 相似文献