外汇交易操作风险分析

作为区别于信用风险、市场风险的第三类风险,操作风险受到了越来越多的重视.本文在对外汇交易过程中产生的操作风险进行分析的基础上,给出了外汇交易操作风险的管理措施和方法.     

The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets

This study examines the relationship between expected stock returns and volatility in the 12 largest international stock markets during January 1980 to December 2001. Consistent with most previous studies, we find a positive but insignificant relationship during the sample period for the majority of the markets based on parametric EGARCH-M models. However, using a flexible semiparametric specification of conditional variance, we find evidence of a significant negative relationship between expected returns and volatility in 6 out of the 12 markets. The results lend some support to the recent claim [Bekaert, G., Wu, G., 2000. Asymmetric volatility and risk in equity markets. Review of Financial Studies 13, 1–42; Whitelaw, R., 2000. Stock market risk and return: an empirical equilibrium approach. Review of Financial Studies 13, 521–547] that stock market returns are negatively correlated with stock market volatility.     

是无形资产还是有形资产--土地使用权价值评估中的困惑及其解析

文章认为作为用益物权的土地使用权,因其资产形态不清、界定不明给资产评估造成了困惑和不便.文章主张,土地使用权的价值应尽量使用市场法进行评估.在市场数据难以获取的情况下,选择收益法也不失为次优的解决方式.文章建议将土地使用权作进一步细致的划分,如划拨土地使用权、出让土地使用权、土地作价出资权(或入股权)、租赁权、一定程度的转让权和破产清算时处置土地的权利等,从而根据其权利内涵的不同,确定其评估价值.     

企业接受捐赠的会计处理探析

财政部、国家税务总局《关于执行〈企业会计制度〉和相关会计准则问题解答(三)》(财会[2003]29号)对企业接受捐赠的会计处理在《企业会计制度》的基础上予以进一步明确。但仔细分析不难发现,目前的会计处理仍然存在两大问题:一是违背了会计核算的基本原则之一——配比原则;二是混淆了负债与所有者权益的界限。本文通过分析税收法规和会计制度的相关规定,拟探讨一下其中问题所在,并提出建议。相关法规和制度的规定与分析(一)税收法规的规定与分析按《国家税务总局关于执行〈企业会计制度〉需要明确的有关所得税问题的通告》(国税发[2003]45号…     

外国石油公司动态（2005年8月）

雷普索尔与Hunt石油公司签署秘鲁LNG出口协议；壳牌加拿大Athabasca油砂项目需大幅增加投资；雷普索尔与Gas Natural SDG成立LNG合资公司；挪威国家石油公司与阿尔及利亚签署合作协议；TNK-BP将投资2．7亿美元开发东西伯利亚油田；壳牌与CHOREN合作首次开发商业性太阳能燃料；壳牌将在2006年出售LPG资产；壳牌获得波弗特海勘探区块重返阿拉斯加；克尔-麦吉以35亿美元出售北海石油资产；俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司签署首个LNG交换协议；优尼科公司股东大会投票批准与雪佛龙合并；道达尔收购Deer Creek能源全部股份；埃克森美孚公司向Grupa Lotos公司出售加气站；Gazprom今年上半年净收入增加40．7％；埃尼获得路易斯安那州LNG终端再汽化能力；埃尼获得印度两个勘探许可证股权；埃克森美孚退出印尼亚齐海上区块A；壳牌等三家公司共同赢得爱尔兰深水勘探许可证；安纳达科购买雷佛龙在墨西哥湾勘探项目20％～25％股权；BP在安哥拉超深水31区块获得第八个发现。     

Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default

This article investigates the impact of spatially correlated unobservable variables on the refinancing, selling and default decisions of mortgage borrowers. Virtually the entire mortgage literature acknowledges that borrower-specific characteristics, such as culture, education or access to information, play an important role in mortgage termination decisions. While we do not observe these variables directly, we note that borrowers of similar background tend to cluster together in neighborhoods. We estimate a competing risks hazard model with random effects using a three-stage maximum likelihood estimation approach. We utilize the space-varying coefficient method to modify the covariance structure according to the spatial distribution of the observations. Beyond a significant improvement of the model performance, this yields a number of insightful implications for mortgage termination behavior. For instance, borrowers of the affluent "West Side" of Los Angeles County both refinance and move at a higher rate than predicted by the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. At the same time, borrowers from some lower-valued neighborhoods tend to stay longer than expected with their mortgages and properties.     

A Reexamination of Housing Price and Household Consumption in China: The Dual Role of Housing Consumption and Housing Investment

It is important to investigate the correlation between housing price and household consumption to gain an understanding of the behavior of the economy and effectively handle the consequences of economic development. In the last two decades, the accumulation of housing wealth by Chinese households has not been effectively transmitted to their final consumption. We discovered that the sustained increase in household wealth and housing-ownership rate in China has been accompanied by a decrease in consumption rate. We also identified a negative correlation between housing price and household consumption for both the homeowners who own one housing unit and those who own two units of housing. We investigated this phenomenon in China both theoretically and empirically by capturing the dual nature of housing as a consumption good and an investment vehicle. We found that the demand for second housing units is motivated by increasing housing consumption demand rather than pure investment needs. To explain the mechanisms that drive household-consumption behavior, we also explored the effects on household consumption of China’s educational system, marriage market and ageing society, as well as future housing-market uncertainty. The implications of government intervention in the housing market are discussed.     

Pricing mortgage insurance contracts under housing price cycles with jump risk: evidence from the U.K. housing market

Previous studies have investigated the determinants of housing price cycles in the housing market; however, we observed the phenomenon of housing price jumps in the 2007 subprime crisis. This paper presents a discussion on the housing price cycle and abnormal price jumps to describe the behavior of housing prices in the United Kingdom. The empirical results show that the impact factors of housing cycles are market risk and the switching factor. Furthermore, the impact factors of jump risks include the bursting of the housing bubble and financial crises. Therefore, in this paper, we employ the Markov switching model with jump risks to value the MI contracts and analyze the influences of housing price cycles, jump risks, risks of market interest rate, and the prepayment risks on MI premiums. The results of sensitivity analysis show that more volatile housing price index returns, as well as longer periods of higher volatility in housing prices, raise MI premiums. Moreover, the MI premium is positively related to the absolute value of the average jump amplitude and the shock frequency of abnormal events. There is the tradeoff between the market interest rate and the prepayment risk. The influences of market interest rate are different on MI premium with/without prepayment risks.     

Short Positions in the First Principal Component Portfolio

Insurance companies and pension plans typically hold well-diversified equity portfolios. These institutions are also often restricted from taking short positions. The diversification requirement operates on the portfolio level, while the short sale constraint is at the individual security level. We examine an investment strategy that exposes a tension between these two requirements. This strategy uses the first principal component to construct the portfolio and by design meets the first requirement. Empirical portfolios based on the first principal component do an excellent job of capturing market exposure and minimizing diversifiable risk. However, in practice such portfolios sometimes contain a few short positions. So this strategy does not always meet the second requirement. We examine which features of stock returns give rise to short positions when a portfolio is based on the first principal component, and we are able to identify the characteristics of the stocks that are responsible for the short positions. These stocks tend to have negative correlations with the majority of other stocks. In contrast such stocks would typically be held long in a Markowitz portfolio. We discuss and explain this puzzle.