基于目的地形象理论的旅游危机管理——以中国四川地震为例

旅游危机管理作为旅游业减少破坏、保障安全和抵御风险的一种重要手段,日益成为旅游研究中的一项重要内容.2008年5月,中国汶川特大地震发生后,四川旅游业受到重创,同时救援和重建工作迅速展开.本文试从旅游者对危机事件感知的角度出发,阐述了旅游目的地形象的形成机制和影响路径模式.在旅游目的形象理论的基础上,总结四川地震灾害在发作期、延续期、痊愈期的不同影响,以及目的地采取的形象塑造和危机管理的相应措施.     

BP神经网络矿产资源评价程序模块设计及其应用研究——以东天山铜镍硫化物矿床为例

在深入研究BP神经网络算法的基础上,开发BP神经网络矿产资源评价功能模块并以东天山地区铜镍硫化物矿床为例开展成矿远景区预测工作。使用MRAS软件中的特征分析功能基于相同样本数据开展预测评价,并对两种模型产生的结果进行对比分析和交叉验证。证明BP神经网络程序的正确性,同时总结BP神经网络矿产资源评价应用的关键技术要点。     

旅游资源生态位的概念及整合开发策略研究

旅游资源的整合开发利用作为现代经济背景下一种有效的旅游开发方式,为旅游目的地构建新型区域旅游系统提供了新的发展模式。尝试将生态位的概念引入区域旅游资源的整合开发利用研究,探讨了旅游资源生态位的概念及以此为基础的资源整合开发策略。     

如何构建企业与政府的和谐关系

企业家要想成就事业,有所作为,必须跟当地政府搞好关系,求得政府的支持,这是企业公关的一个大课题。首先要熟悉政府的政策和办公流程,否则就会碰壁或吃闭门羹。要跟政府建立诚信的人际关系,打造厚实的“政府背景”,事业就成功了一半。     

福建省高端装备制造业技术创新效率评价

将技术创新分为两个阶段——投入转化阶段和转化产出阶段,运用DEA两阶段法和DEAMalmquist指数法,对2008—2012年福建省高端装备制造业5个细分行业的两阶段技术创新效率进行了静态和动态评价。研究结果如下:在技术创新的第一阶段,福建省高端装备制造业的投入转化效率在很大程度上依赖于技术进步,但这种趋势在减弱;在技术创新的第二阶段,福建省高端装备制造业的转化产出效率呈下降趋势,且技术进步和技术效率对之共同发挥影响作用。     

论西部民族地区自我发展能力的提升

提升西部民族地区自我发展能力,面临着自然环境、经济、政治和思想文化等诸多因素的制约。因此,必须要调整产业结构,完善基础设施建设,增强区域的资本积累能力和要素聚集能力;完善制度,改善环境,增强区域的政府组织协调能力和人文发展能力：构建社会主义核心价值体系,增强区域的民族凝聚力和向心力;创新科技,发展教育,增强区域的智力支持力和发展持续力;合理利用资源,保护环境,增强区域的生态平衡发展能力。     

多市场接触与市场竞争行为——以中国民航运输业为例

多市场接触竞争理论考虑了同一企业在不同市场的竞争行为的关联性,大量来自西方市场的研究证明多市场接触可导致企业在竞争中"相互容忍",降低市场竞争的激烈程度.参照这些研究方法,本文运用中国国内主要定期航线市场数据,计算出航线多市场接触指数,并进行回归分析.结果显示,尽管中国国内航线市场多市场接触程度较高,但对市场竞争的实际影响微弱.研究还发现管制制度是影响中国航空公司竞争战略的重要因素.     

饭店服务质量测量方法研究综述

提高服务质量是饭店企业区别于竞争对手,获得相对竞争优势的重要手段.要改善服务质量,首先需要有效和实用的测量方法对服务质量进行可靠和准确的测量.本文对服务质量的测量方法进行了综述,分析它们在饭店业中的应用现状及问题,同时阐述了饭店服务质量测量的新趋势.     

The Essential Role of Sense of Community in a Youth Sport Program

This multiphased study identifies the salient benefits that parents seek for their families from a youth sport program. Phase 1, a preseason focus group study of parents of swimmers in three clubs (N = 15), indicated parents seek a sense of community for their children and themselves, and sense of community is linked to their desire for children to learn sport and life skills. Phase 2, a postseason survey of parents in the same three clubs (N = 129), tested the relationships among coaching quality, friendships, organizational communication, sport and life skills, sense of community, parents' satisfaction, and their repeat purchase intention. Using path analysis, sense of community was identified as the key driver of satisfaction and repeat purchase intention, with swimming improvement also having a significant effect on satisfaction. These findings highlight the central role sense of community plays for participants and their families in youth sport contexts.     

“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets

We introduce the Speculative Influence Network (SIN) to decipher the causal relationships between sectors (and/or firms) during financial bubbles. The SIN is constructed in two steps. First, we develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of regime-switching between a normal market phase represented by a geometric Brownian motion and a bubble regime represented by the stochastic super-exponential Sornette and Andersen (Int J Mod Phys C 13(2):171–188, 2002) bubble model. The calibration of the HMM provides the probability at each time for a given security to be in the bubble regime. Conditional on two assets being qualified in the bubble regime, we then use the transfer entropy to quantify the influence of the returns of one asset i onto another asset j, from which we introduce the adjacency matrix of the SIN among securities. We apply our technology to the Chinese stock market during the period 2005–2008, during which a normal phase was followed by a spectacular bubble ending in a massive correction. We introduce the Net Speculative Influence Intensity variable as the difference between the transfer entropies from i to j and from j to i, which is used in a series of rank ordered regressions to predict the maximum loss (%MaxLoss) endured during the crash. The sectors that influenced other sectors the most are found to have the largest losses. There is some predictability obtained by using the transfer entropy involving industrial sectors to explain the %MaxLoss of financial institutions but not vice versa. We also show that the bubble state variable calibrated on the Chinese market data corresponds well to the regimes when the market exhibits a strong price acceleration followed by clear change of price regimes. Our results suggest that SIN may contribute significant skill to the development of general linkage-based systemic risks measures and early warning metrics.