To go or not to go: travel constraints and attractiveness of travel affecting outbound Chinese tourists to Japan

The fast growth of the Chinese economy has transformed Chinese outbound tourism into one of the major players in the tourism industry worldwide. However, Chinese outbound tourists may still encounter travel constraints in some countries, such as Japan, which has had a close and complicated relationship in history with China. This study adopted the qualitative approach by applying focus group and in-depth interviews to investigate and triangulate the travel barriers affecting Chinese outbound travel to Japan. The findings indicated that domestic nationalist sentiment played a key constraining role in influencing Chinese outbound travel decision-making, followed by current political factors, while quality products and service, as well as social environment encouraged tourists to travel. This research also found that visitors and non-visitors have perception differences in terms of travel barriers and attractiveness of travel.     

Impact of financial/economic crisis on demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong

The main objectives of this study are (1) to identify the factors that influence the demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong and (2) to generate quarterly forecasts of that demand to assess the impact of the ongoing financial/economic crisis. The demand for four types of hotel room from the residents of nine major origin countries is considered, and forecasts are generated from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2015. Econometric approaches are employed to calculate the demand elasticities and their corresponding confidence intervals, which are then used to generate interval demand predictions. The empirical results reveal that the most important factors in determining the demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong are the economic conditions (measured by income level) in the origin markets, the price of the hotel rooms and the ‘word of mouth’ effect. Demand for High Tariff A and Medium Tariff hotel rooms is estimated to have experienced negative annual growth in 2009 due to the influence of the financial/economic crisis, whereas that for High Tariff B hotel rooms is thought to have grown in 2009 after having decreased in 2008. The demand for tourist guesthouse rooms is expected to be the least affected by the crisis. Overall demand is predicted to recover gradually from 2010 onwards.     

Assessment of the Partnership Quality between Travel Agencies and Health Care Organizations on the International Medical Tourism Market in Taiwan

The medical tourism literature lacks insight into related issues of these types of partnerships. Those that integrate multiple perspectives into one research framework are especially rare. This study evaluated and compared the influence of external environment uncertainty, trust, and resource dependence perspectives on the quality of interorganizational partnerships in the international medical tourism market and quantified these elements using external environment uncertainty assessment on the international medical tourism development. The research sample was based on a survey from 161 travel agency managers in Taiwan. This study found that external environment uncertainty has direct negative impact on trust and resource dependence has a positive influence on interorganizational partnership. Moreover, trust has a significant impact on partnership quality while resource dependence does not. Therefore, medical travel agents should extend their network of trustworthy health care organization partners in order to improve performance, decrease their self-risk, collect information, and avoid missed opportunities.     

中国区域金融发展差异与地区经济发展——基于我国东西部面板数据的实证分析

本文基于我国东、西部1978—2007年省际面板数据,运用面板单位根检验、协整检验及误差修正模型,对我国东、西部区域金融发展与其产业结构、城市化及经济增长之间的长期和短期关系进行了比较研究。研究表明,东西部区域金融发展与其产业结构、城市化及经济增长之间关系具有明显的区域差异:(1)东部的金融发展,不论在长期还是短期,均能助推其产业结构优化升级、城市化进程和经济增长,但在促进经济增长过程中也带来了通货膨胀的负效应;(2)西部的金融发展在长期能引导产业结构升级、城市化进程及经济增长,但短期因果关系不成立;(3)西部金融发展对城市化的边际贡献较小。在此基础上,提出了相应政策建议。     

新型农村合作医疗与个人缴付额的操作:以广东为例

探讨新型农村合作医疗个人缴付额更合理、有效的确定方法,以进一步体现其积极、公平的实际效果。运用回归分析方法通过筛选解释变量提出了估计一个地区农民年均医疗费用的计算公式;分析了现行的新型农村合作医疗个人缴付额安排的不足,尤其是在科学性和合理性方面的不足;并依据所提出的计算公式重新构建了若干更加积极、公平的个人缴付额安排。     

我国经济结构失衡的内需与外需原因分析

我国已是一个经济大国,内需应是经济增长的主导力量。外需快速增长给我国央行货币发行与管理模式的有效性带来挑战,使我国经济结构失衡加剧,不利于实现经济增长向内需主导型模式的转变,也不利于经济发展水平与国内居民消费水平之间做到良性循环。要建立起以内需为主导的经济发展模式,就必须促进经济增长由主要依靠投资、出口拉动向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变,这是我国实现经济长期、持续、协调发展的必然要求,也是贯彻落实科学发展观的重要体现。为此,文章在分析我国经济结构失衡原因的基础上,提出通过进行出口战略性调整,＂消解并转移＂过度的外汇储备,把经济发展模式转变与政府促进公共消费联系在一起,以此作为有效扩大内需的一种调控手段。     

行为金融学理论综述

证券市场上的种种异象使得人们对主流金融学产生了质疑，行为金融学应运而生。投资者心理和套利限制构成了行为金融学的两大支柱。行为金融学所提出的观点更加切合现实，而且对很多异象都做出了合理的解释。另外行为金融学还建立了自己的模型——行为组合模型与行为资产定价模型，从而成为挑战主流金融学的最大力量。     

生态资本价值的计量

随着中国市场经济的快速发展,生态资本对经济可持续发展的重要性,越来越受到人们的关注。但生态资本准确的计量一直是个难题。本文首先对生态资本的概念进行了界定,然后分析了生态资本的价值构成,最后在此基础上提出了具体的计量方法,特别是对生态资本的服务价值的计量进行了定量分析。     

基于车辆数据的k近邻联合概率数据关联算法

在交通场景中采用一些预警措施能够有效地减少交通事故发生。例如,对车辆轨迹进行跟踪并预测车辆的驾驶行为,就是一个常用的预警方法。在对车辆进行跟踪的过程中,数据关联是很重要的部分,它可以对车辆的观测点和轨迹进行关联,从而更新车辆的轨迹,完成跟踪过程。在此背景下,提出了一种新的数据关联算法,即k近邻联合概率数据关联算法(k Nearest Neighbor-Joint Probability Data Association,kNN-JPDA)。实验结果表明,该算法能够较好地解决在交通场景下车辆数据的数据关联问题,在精度以及运行效率方面都有所提高。     

简论人才流动政策的调整

人才单向流动不利于经济社会科学发展,规范和引导政府、用人单位、中介组织和人才的行为,建立互相衔接的社会保险制度,改革档案管理制度,打破身份界限,改革住房制度,建立统一的人才市场,完善人才中介服务等,确保人才“全方位自由流动”,实现人才与组织及其工作岗位的合理配置,是推动经济社会可持续发展的根本要求。