Statistical Inference,Learning and Models in Big Data

The need for new methods to deal with big data is a common theme in most scientific fields, although its definition tends to vary with the context. Statistical ideas are an essential part of this, and as a partial response, a thematic program on statistical inference, learning and models in big data was held in 2015 in Canada, under the general direction of the Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute, with major funding from, and most activities located at, the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences. This paper gives an overview of the topics covered, describing challenges and strategies that seem common to many different areas of application and including some examples of applications to make these challenges and strategies more concrete.     

Maintaining a Flexible Payout Policy in a Mature Industry: The Case of Crown Cork and Seal in the Connelly Era

This case study suggests that the payment of cash dividends may not be essential to the long-run success of even mature companies. A mature company in a mature industry, the Crown Cork and Seal Company did not pay any common dividends during John Connelly's 33-year tenure as chairman and CEO. During that period (from 1957 to 1990), the company used stock repurchases along with a compensation policy featuring low executive salaries and generous executive stock options to motivate and execute a focused business strategy. Under the leadership of Connelly, Crown was rescued from what appeared to be certain bankruptcy to become one of the most profitable firms in its industry. Debt was immediately paid down, preferred stock was retired, and the firm's operations were revamped and streamlined. Instead of following the diversification strategies of larger industry peers, Crown's strategy was focused and driven by profit margin and customer service. This strategy eventually led Crown to invest internationally and acquire one of its major rivals. In addition to significant equity ownership by Crown's management and board members, the company's board had a remarkable number of “outsiders” and representatives from international operations, creating a culture that was outward-looking as well as cohesive. And without paying a dollar of dividends—a practice that many finance scholars believe imposes a necessary discipline on mature companies—Crown both preserved its financing flexibility and produced a remarkable record of increases in both profits and market value.     

Motivations of Australian Listed Companies Effecting Share Buy-Backs

The bulk of prior research on share buy-backs has been undertaken in the U.S. As the legislative environment and capital market perception of buy-backs in Australia are different to the U.S., it is both desirable and necessary to examine the motivations of Australian share buy-backs. Contemporary Australian financial press reports, the U.S. financial management literature and anecdotal evidence provide numerous feasible motivations for a company to undertake a buy-back. In an Australian context, this article considers the following: (a) the development of the legislative framework relating to share buy-backs and why some forms of buy-back are preferred over others; (b) a set of potential motivations (reasons) for Australian companies undertaking a buy-back; and (c) the actual motivations as provided in ASX announcements by forty-four listed companies effecting sixty-seven share buy-backs over the period 1990 to 1995. Results reveal that motivations differ depending on the type of buy-back and are reasonably consistent across time. The two prime motivations for on-market buy-backs are: (a) signalling of future expectations (underpricing), and (b) an attempt to increase financial performance (EPS) and/or position (NAB/share). For selective buy-backs, the main purpose is to remove specific shareholders from the share register. Employee buy-backs are generally seen as an off-market means of providing a market for the company's shares. Finally, the overriding motivation for equal access buy-backs is as an alternative to dividends.     

The Real Estate Investor

This case study chronicles the entrepreneurial and real estate investment activities of a recent Ph.D. graduate in business administration. The protagonist learns that clear focus is necessary for entrepreneurial success and that trust does not mix with entrepreneurship and negotiation. Ethics are sometimes problematic for entrepreneurs.     

Consumers' perceptions of mail‐order speciality foods

The objectives of the study are to examine consumers' perceptions of speciality food mail‐order products on the basis of a mail survey of “active” and “inactive” mail‐order shoppers. The paper identifies a profile of mail‐order shoppers, examines the influence of perceived risk and the effectiveness of risk relievers, derives the dimensions of perceived benefits and establishes consumer segments based upon benefits sought.

The results reveal a distinct profile of active in‐home shoppers with resped to demographic and lifestyle variables.

Shoppers perceive higher levels of risk with mail‐order shopping compared to in‐store shopping. Appropriate risk relievers are identified for both active and inactive groups.

Consumers' perceptions of the benefits of mail‐order emphasis quality, uniqueness and convenience. However, underlying these attributes are four main dimensions of customer relations and service, convenience, nostalgia and uniqueness.

Furthermore, it is possible to identify two segments of active mailorder shoppers in terms of a produd‐oriented group and a mail‐order‐oriented group.     

Problems and Risks in the Purchasing of Consultancy Services

This article integrates some of the literature relevant to the purchasing of industrial professional services with a view to highlighting the risks and dificulties involved. Many factors con- tribute to increasing the risk involved in the decision, including: the characteristics of services; the high financial risk; the conflict of interest; the length of purchase commitment; organisational risks, the inexperience of decision makers; the conspicuousness of the decision and extent of linked decisions. The decision making process can involve eight stages; problem identification, determining if the problem is to be handled internally or ex- ternally, identifying possible consultants, searching for information about consultants, evaluating consultants, selecting consultants, managing the project and reviewing the consultant's performance. The paper takes the buying process as it main framework and integrates the risks and problems encountered as well as discussing practical ways to overcome them.     

Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970

Output growth estimates for regions of the UK are currently published at an annual frequency only, released with a long delay, and offer limited historical coverage. To improve the regional database this paper develops a mixed-frequency multivariate model and uses it to produce consistent estimates of quarterly regional output growth dating back to 1970. We describe how these estimates are updated and evaluated on an ongoing, quarterly basis to publish online (at www.escoe.ac.uk/regionalnowcasting ) more timely regional growth estimates. We illustrate how the new quarterly data can contribute to our historical understanding of business cycle dynamics and connectedness between regions.     

Optimal social security claiming behavior under lump sum incentives: Theory and evidence

Many Americans claim Social Security benefits early, though this leaves them with lower monthly payments throughout retirement. We build a lifecycle model that closely tracks claiming patterns under current rules, and we use it to predict claiming delays if, by delaying benefits, people were to receive a lump sum instead of an annuity. We predict that current early claimers would defer claiming by a year given actuarially fair lump sums, and the predictions conform with respondents' answers to a strategic survey about the lump sum. In other words, such a reform could provide an avenue for encouraging delayed retirement without benefit cuts or tax increases. Moreover, many people would still defer claiming even for smaller lump sums.     

Male Consumer Decision-Making Styles

The neglect of men in consumer decision-making research is lamentable given the clear evidence that they are an important shopping group and are likely to make shopping decisions differently from women. This study addresses the subject of male decision making using Sproles and Kendall's () Consumer Styles Inventory (CSI). All of the original eight traits and four new traits namely; store-loyal/low-price seeking, time-energy conserving, confused time-restricted and store-promiscuity were identified for men. The study also demonstrated the potential of the CSI for segmenting markets as meaningful and distinct groups of buyers with different decision-making styles were identified. The findings suggest that retailers should appeal to their buyers by improving the efficiency of the shopping process and value perceptions when dealing with male shoppers.