财政可持续性与地方政府教育努力程度*

财政可持续性是影响政府教育努力程度的重要因素。本文基于2015—2019年城市面板数据测算了地方政府的财政可持续性指标，考察了财政可持续性对地方政府教育投入水平的影响。研究发现：我国大部分地级市都处于财政可持续状态，地方政府逐年上升的财政可持续性风险将降低政府教育努力程度，这一效应在东部地区和中部地区以及经济较发达城市尤为显著。     

Maximum utility portfolio construction in the forward freight agreement markets: Evidence from a multivariate skewed t copula

We form portfolios consisting of diverse quarterly forward freight agreement (FFA) contracts to maximize the market participant's expected utility. The empirical findings indicate that individual FFA returns display clear autocorrelation, seasonality, fat tail, and heteroscedasticity. The multivariate positively skewed t copula is suggested for constructing maximum utility FFA portfolios, implying that the constituent FFA returns exhibit higher correlations when they rise together. The out-of-sample trading strategy performance metrics and various robustness checks further indicate that the aforementioned copula performs best and robustly for all portfolios. These findings provide profound methodological and managerial implications for market participants to improve risk management.     

数字经济公平征税的若干问题探析

以数字经济为主体的全新经济发展形态,必将主导形成全新特征的"下一代经济全球化"。现行国际税收规则在数字经济环境下缺失更广泛的公平性,从而造成更为严重的税收治理矛盾,由征收数字服务税的无序博弈演变成全球经济贸易争端的风险日益增大。世界亟须制定有利于数字经济发展的国际税收新规则,公平透明的数字经济税收规则制定主导权决定"下一代经济全球化"及未来经济社会发展的主动权。为此,作为全球经济总量及数字经济规模第二大经济体的中国,应秉持多边主义,通过全球多边协商形成共识,构建公平、中立、透明、稳定的数字经济时代新型国际税收规则,在"十四五"数字经济快速发展的关键五年,在数字经济税收规则建立中扮演主导者而不是跟随者的身份,牢牢把握"下一代经济全球化"的主动权。     

Is idiosyncratic asymmetry priced in commodity futures?

In this article, we use a recently introduced asymmetry measure, IE, to measure the idiosyncratic asymmetry of commodity futures returns and find that idiosyncratic asymmetry negatively and significantly predicts commodity futures returns cross sectionally. Furthermore, we find that a long–short trading strategy based on idiosyncratic asymmetry generates significant abnormal returns, which cannot be explained by traditional risk factors in commodity futures and persists up to 12 months. Moreover, idiosyncratic asymmetry appears to be a priced factor in commodity futures with significant risk premium. Finally, we confirm that IE is better at capturing the pricing effect of idiosyncratic asymmetry than the traditional skewness measure.     

市场声誉惩罚失灵的中国方案及其价值——基于环保失信联合惩戒实践的证据

本文以资本市场所反映出的环境违法违规声誉惩罚为测度对象，理论分析并实证检验了我国具有创新性的失信联合惩戒制度缓解市场声誉惩罚失灵问题的逻辑和机制。实证证据表明：(1)在市场声誉惩罚失灵的环境领域，我国环境违法违规上市公司受到了显著的声誉惩罚，达到市值的-1.52%,占比总惩罚的98.06%。(2)环保失信联合惩戒制度是我国环境违法违规受到声誉惩罚的决定性因素，是我国资本市场所反映出的总惩罚效应的主要来源。(3)对比国内外相关研究，环保失信联合惩戒制度克服了我国以往对环境违法违规企业惩罚不当的问题，将环境违法违规成本提高至与主要发达国家可比的水平。