Intensidad en empleo a largo plazo del crecimiento del producto sectorial en Túnez

Se examina la capacidad a largo plazo de Túnez de generar empleo. Con datos de panel de 15 sectores económicos de 1983–2010, los autores estiman sus elasticidades producto‐empleo a largo plazo utilizando el estimador de media grupal. Según sus resultados, la política económica debería orientarse a los sectores más intensivos en empleo: servicios y manufacturas exportadoras. Destaca la incapacidad del sector minero de absorber mano de obra, por lo que la inversión en el mismo no será productiva; asimismo, el crecimiento sin empleo a largo plazo de la hotelería y restauración induce a pensar que deberían fomentarse más las actividades paraturísticas que las turísticas.     

Consideration of technological and environmental heterogeneity in cost efficiency analysis

In order to evaluate and compare the efficiency levels across banking industries, we adopt the meta-frontier model that can assess the technological difference among countries. Given the importance of country specific conditions, we include in our analysis the different specificities of each country to incorporate the technological as the environmental differences in the evaluation of banking efficiencies. Using data on the banking industries of several countries in the MENA region, over the period 1991–2011, the results of the efficiency scores corrected by the technological and environmental gap led us to conclude that Egyptian banks are the most efficient in terms of cost compared with banks in other countries. Egyptian banks enjoy a very favourable banking technology. Our results support the hypothesis that traditional techniques of efficiency analysis based on the efficiency scores of a specific and pooled frontier tend to mystify efficiency levels and may incorrectly identify efficient banks. This paper contributes to the efficiency literature by incorporating technological and environmental heterogeneities in the evaluation of efficiency. This helps to characterize the production process of a bank and provides common standards by which the efficiencies of banks in different countries can be compared in a meaningful way with each other.     

Migration and employment interactions in a crisis context

This article analyses how a crisis impacts labour markets in origin countries through migration channels. For this purpose, we develop a novel dynamic general equilibrium model with a focus on the interlinkages between migration, the labour market and education. The main innovation of the paper is the retrospective modelling in general equilibrium of the impact of an economic crisis to isolate the impact of migration on local unemployment. The impact of the crisis on education decision is captured through endogenous returns to education. The simultaneity of the crisis in Tunisia and its partners worsened the labour market situation mainly through the increase in labour supply. The main result of this study is that migration is indeed one of the main determinants of the unemployment increase and that remittances have a higher impact than the variation of emigration flows. The low skilled bear the highest costs in terms of unemployment and wage decline.     

Business Cycle Asymmetries and Nonlinearity in UAE Macroeconomic Time Series

This study investigates the dynamic behaviour of macroeconomic time series variables of the United Arab Emirates. We first examined whether there are non‐Gaussian characteristics associated with the macroeconomic variables of the United Arab Emirates. Through application of the BDS nonlinearity test, our results indicated that there is a substantial nonlinear dependence in the data set for all the variables. We also assessed the asymmetric behaviour of these variables by exploring whether they exhibit two particular forms of asymmetry, which are deepness and steepness asymmetries. These results have shown that there is no empirical evidence of business cycle asymmetry in all the variables at any conventional level of significance in the sample period. Also, through application of further robust testing, our findings indicate the presence of pro‐cyclical asymmetry in some of the variables and at the same time indicate the presence of asymmetries in the volatility.     

A unified approach to ruin probabilities with delays for spectrally negative Lévy processes

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we unify two popular approaches for the definition of actuarial ruin with implementation delays, also known as Parisian ruin. Our new definition of ruin includes both deterministic delays and exponentially distributed delays: ruin is declared the first time an excursion in the red zone lasts longer than an implementation delay with a deterministic and a stochastic component. For this Parisian ruin with mixed delays, we identify the joint distribution of the time of ruin and the deficit at ruin, therefore providing generalizations of many results previously obtained, such as in Baurdoux et al. (2016) and Loeffen et al. (in press) for the case of an exponential delay and that of a deterministic delay, respectively.     

An enhanced approach for Trend Impact Analysis

Decision makers in governments, corporations and institutions all need to forecast the future. Usually, traditional quantitative forecasting techniques are applied for this purpose. But the limitation of such methods is well known since all quantitative methods that are built solely on historical data (whether time-series or causal methods) produce forecasts by extrapolating such data into the future ignoring the effects of unprecedented future events that could cause deviation from the original surprise-free forecast if they were to occur. In the meanwhile, pure qualitative methods that don't utilize historical data miss its sound foundation. In the field of future studies, attempts are often made to combine quantitative and qualitative approaches using various hybrid methods such as Trend Impact Analysis. This paper introduces an advanced algorithm to enhance Trend Impact Analysis that adds another level of sophistication to the current algorithm. This advanced algorithm takes into account not only the impact of unprecedented future events' occurrences on the future trend, but also the different severity degrees with which the event might occur. This idea of severity degrees is novel, and its implementation is the main contribution of this paper.     

Credit risk,owner liability,and bank loan maturities during the global financial crisis

We relate credit risk and owners’ personal guarantees to bank loan maturities during the global financial crisis. The findings, which remain robust to reverse causality, show that firms rated as low risk, with a strong relationship with the bank, whose owners provided personal guarantees and with large loan sizes obtained longer maturities. Banks with larger nonperforming loans provided loans with shorter maturities. Firms with low‐ and high‐risk ratings that provided owners’ personal guarantees obtained longer maturities. These findings shed additional light on the relationship between risk and loan maturities and the role of personal guarantees in reducing information asymmetries.