The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners

Currency depreciation is said to worsen the trade balance before improving it, hence the J-curve phenomenon. Since introduction of cointegration and error-correction modelling, researchers have tried to distinguish the short-run effects of currency depreciation from its long-run effects. A few studies that have investigated the experience of Malaysia, have relied upon aggregate trade data and have found no strong support for a significant relation between the real value of the ringgit and the Malaysian trade balance. In this article, we disaggregate the data by country and consider Malaysia's bilateral trade balance with her 14 largest trading partners. Using bound testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, we provide some support for the J-curve hypothesis.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITY IN LESS-DEVELOPED AND TRANSITION ECONOMIES: A REVIEW PAPER

Abstract.  The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) has been the subject of numerous studies, many of which have been unable to prove conclusively this core principle of international finance. Although industrialized countries have received most of the attention, studies that focus on less-developed and transition economies have also attained mixed results. This study surveys trends in this branch of the literature, highlighting the econometric advances that have sought to solve this puzzle, while pointing out that more needs to be done to address the reasons that might cause PPP not to hold.     

The Japanese–U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific goods. In the short run, the opposite might even take place, as fixed quantities and rising import prices cause the trade balance to deteriorate. In this paper, we apply cointegration methodology to assess the short- and long-run impact of fluctuations in the yen–dollar real exchange rate on Japan's trade balance with the U.S. for 117 industries. We find that depreciation causes the trade balance to improve in the long-run for about one-third of Japanese industries. Most short-run effects are in the same direction, indicating a quick improvement in these industries’ trade balance, rather than a period of deterioration such as a “J-curve.”