Asymmetric response of the US–India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries

The relationship between the trade balance and the exchange rate continues to attract attention by international economists and has entered into new territory, mostly due to advances in econometric methods. The introduction of asymmetric error‐correction modelling and asymmetric cointegration using the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, Springer, 2014, 281) as compared to the symmetric and linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, 289) has led us in a new direction to discover relatively better results. We apply these methods to the bilateral trade balance model of each of the 68 industries that trade between India and the USA. The nonlinear approach not only provides more support to the J‐curve effect, but also yields support in favour of short‐run and long‐run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in most of the industries.     

The J-Curve: Evidence from Industry-Level Data Between the U.S. and Indonesia

Empirical studies on the impact of currency devaluation or depreciation on the trade balance still continue to occupy the literature. These studies have evolved from using aggregate to disaggregated data. The findings, however, have been mixed. Previous research using aggregate trade flows of Indonesia with the rest of the world or bilateral data between Indonesia and the U.S. as one of its major trading partners found no significant relation between rupiah-dollar rate and Indonesia’s bilateral trade balances. In this article, we disaggregate the trade flows between Indonesia and the U.S. by commodity and show that the trade balances of at least nine out of 23 industries react to exchange rate changes favorably in the long run.     

US–Thailand trade at the commodity level and the role of the real exchange rate

Previous studies that have investigated the impact of real depreciation of the Thai baht on Thailand's trade flows have either used aggregate trade data between Thailand and the rest of the world, or between Thailand and its major trading partners. These studies have provided mixed results. In this paper, we disaggregate the trade flows between Thailand and its major trading partner, the US, by commodity and investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the export earnings of 118 American exporting industries and the outpayments of 42 American importing industries. While most industries are affected in the short run, the short-run results last into the long run in several small industries. The inpayments of large exporting industries and the outpayments of large importing industries are not affected. Economic activity seems to be the major long-run determinant of the performance of most industries.     

Exchange‐Rate Risk and Japanese–Thai Industry Trade

Over the past decade, many papers have studied the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on international trade, particularly at the bilateral level for large numbers of individual industries. This is necessary because the underlying theory is ambiguous and because earlier papers failed to uncover significant results at a higher degree of aggregation. This paper examines the case of Japan and Thailand over the period from 1970 to 2010. We find that slightly more than half of 117 export industries and 54 import industries are affected by volatility in the short run. In the long run, 6 export and 2 import industries are affected positively, and 22 export and 9 import industries are affected negatively. Small Japanese export industries are more likely to be negatively affected, while imports show no differences regarding industry size. In a sectoral analysis, we find some evidence that Japanese exports of manufactures and certain machinery and transport equipment might be relatively more affected by the exchange‐rate risk. Raw material imports are least affected. These findings therefore suggest which industries might benefit most by a policy promoting a stable yen.     

Is there J-Curve effect in Africa?

The J-Curve is a term used to describe the post-devaluation behavior of the trade balance, i.e., initial deterioration followed by an improvement. Previous research has tested the phenomenon for many developed and developing countries. However, African nations have not received any attention on this regard. In this paper, we test the hypothesis for nine African countries of Burundi, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Africa, and Tanzania for which quarterly trade data were available. After using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling, we were unable to find any support for the J-Curve.     

Gaining from disorder: Making the case for antifragility in purchasing and supply chain management

The purchasing and supply chain management (P&SCM) discipline assumes that supply chains are fragile systems, hence taking a “negative” approach toward disorder. Building on Taleb’s concept of antifragility—the ability to gain from disorder rather than avoiding it—, we challenge this traditional assumption. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed that some companies were indeed able to gain from disorder, whereas some of those that focused too much on robustness and resilience lost ground. Building robust and resilient supply chains may no longer be enough to thrive in today’s highly volatile business world. This article sparks a new debate by introducing antifragility to the P&SCM literature and provides new directions for future research.     

The Effect of Perceived Corporate Social Responsibility and Sustainable Human Resources on Employee Engagement with the Moderating Role of the Employer Brand

Employee Responsibilities and Rights Journal - Employee Engagement (EE) is an important aspect of human resources management, which is instrumental in the financial success of an organization....     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-China commodity trade

Previous research that considered the response of the trade balance between Malaysia and China to exchange rate changes used a linear model and did not find any significant long-run link. Suspecting that the results suffer from aggregation bias as well as ignoring nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate, we consider the trade balance of 59 industries that trade between the two countries and use a nonlinear ARDL model to show that almost a third of the industries are affected by ringgit depreciation against the yuan, in an asymmetric manner. The largest industry, which accounts for more than 25% of the trade, is found to benefit from ringgit depreciation while not being hurt by appreciation. In total, 15 industries that account for 40% of the trade enjoy this property.     

Real and nominal effective exchange rates in MENA countries: 1970–2004

The main purposes of this article are 3-fold. First, we construct measures of real and nominal effective exchange rates for 14 Middle East and North African countries over the 1970–2004 period. Second, we test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) by applying the ADF and KPSS tests to the real effective exchange rates. Finally, we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling to show that nominal devaluation leads to real devaluation in the short-run as well as in the long-run in many of the countries.