Revisiting purchasing power parity in G6 countries: an application of smooth time-varying cointegration approach

This study revisits purchasing power parity (PPP) for the G6 countries (i.e., Canada, Italy, Japan, France, Germany, the UK) using smooth time-varying cointegrating approach, proposed by Park and Hahn (Econom Theory 15:664–703, 1999). Using monthly data over the 1971M1–2013M12 period, our empirical results indicate that PPP holds in two out of six countries (i.e., France and Germany).     

Inequality and growth in the United States: is there asymmetric response at the state level?

A previous study that tried to assess the impact of economic growth on income inequality in the U.S. used state-level data and an ARDL panel model to conclude that economic growth worsens income inequality in the U.S. In this article, we use the same data set but an ARDL time-series model applied to each state in the U.S. to show that the above conclusion is only valid in 20 states. Additionally, we use a nonlinear ARDL approach to show that the effects are asymmetric in the short run as well as in the long run. Significant long-run asymmetric effects reveal that in 28 states both an increase and a decrease in real output have worsened income distribution.     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey?

As a result of the research conducted by Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell (1963), most studies estimating the demand for money today do include the exchange rate in their specification to account for currency substitution. Previous studies that did this for the Turkish demand for money assumed that exchange rate changes do have symmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey. In this article, we question this assumption. By using the nonlinear ARDL approach, we show that indeed exchange rate changes do have short-run and long-run asymmetric effects on the M1 demand for money. Introducing nonlinearity also yields a stable money demand.     

Economic uncertainty,monetary uncertainty and the Korean demand for money

Economic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty are said to affect public’s holding of money in either direction. In this paper, we consider the Korean demand for money, and after including two GARCH-based measures of output uncertainty and monetary uncertainty, we show that both measures exert significant effects on the demand for money in Korea in the short run. However, only the adverse effects of output uncertainty lasts into the long run. Indeed, including the two uncertainty measures yield a stable demand for money in Korea.     

The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances

Previous studies that have assessed the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on Turkey’s trade balance with its major partners relied upon a linear adjustment process that could not find much support for favorable effects of exchange rate changes. In this paper, once we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via the partial sum concept and introduce nonlinearity into the estimation and testing procedure, we show that the effects of exchange rate changes are asymmetric. More precisely, while lira appreciation does not have any significant effects on Turkey’s bilateral trade balances, lira depreciation has significantly favorable effects on Turkey’s trade balance with its European partners (France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Great Britain).     

Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Japan

Previous studies that assessed the effects of currency depreciation on the domestic production of Japan did not find any significant long-run effects. Using the linear ARDL approach we first confirm previous findings. We then argue and show that failure to find any significant link between the value of the yen and Japanese domestic production is due to assuming a linear adjustment mechanism or symmetric effects of exchange rate changes. Once we use the nonlinear ARDL approach we show that indeed exchange rate changes do have asymmetric effects on domestic production in Japan. Not only we observe adjustment asymmetry, but also short-run asymmetry that lasts into the long run. In the long run while strong yen seems to hurt domestic production in Japan, weak yen seems to have no effect.     

S-Curve at the industry level: evidence from US–UK commodity trade

Backus et al. in (Am Econ Rev 84(1): 84–103, 1994) found that the cross-correlation function between terms of trade and trade balance resembles the letter S and labeled it the S-curve. Support for S-curve is rather weak in some cases, most notably US when aggregate trade data are used. Empirical regularities based on aggregate trade data may suffer from a potential bias stemming from aggregation. Indeed, by employing US bilateral trade data excellent support for the S-curve is recovered. The support, however, was rather weak at the level of US–UK bilateral trade. Suspecting aggregation bias again, we employ US–UK trade data at the industry level and find overwhelming support for the S-curve. Furthermore, commodity attributes play no role. Valuable comments of an anonymous referee are greatly appreciated. Any error, however, is ours.     

Accidents airline safety perceptions and consumer demand

This paper assesses the impact of perceptions about the safety level of airlines on enplanement. Consumer perceptions are specified with a Poisson distribution that updates over time. Using two different empirical specifications via a pooled generalized least squares procedure with fixed effects; we find no statistical evidence of a correlation between the perceived level of safety and enplanement. However, under an alternative specification in which the severity levels of accidents are ranked, we find that safety perceptions about accidents with minor injuries have no statistically significant impact on enplanement, while perceptions about accidents with serious injuries and fatalities lead to cumulative decreases in enplanement.     

The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S.

Several studies in the literature have tried to assess the impact of real depreciation of the Canadian dollar on the Canadian trade balance. They have either relied on the trade data between Canada and the rest of the world or between Canada and her major trading partners. In this paper we consider the trade between Canada and her major trading partner, the U.S. However, unlike previous research, we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity. We use export and import data over the period 1962–2004 from 152 commodities and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling and show that real depreciation of the Canadian dollar has short-run effects on the trade balance of two-thirds of the industries. However, only in 50% of the industries, the short-run effects translate into the long-run favorable effects.