Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absence of much in the way of domain knowledge, we prepared the forecasts under the assumption that no domain knowledge was available. This removes what we believe is one of RBF’s primary advantages. We had to re-calibrate some of the rules relating to causal forces to allow for this lack of domain knowledge. Second, automatic identification procedures were used for six time-series features that had previously been identified using judgment. This was done to reduce cost and improve reliability. Third, we simplified the rule-base by removing one method from the four that were used in the original implementation. Although this resulted in some loss in accuracy, it reduced the number of rules in the rule-base from 99 to 64. This version of RBF still benefits from the use of prior findings on extrapolation, so we expected that it would be substantially more accurate than the random walk and somewhat more accurate than equal weights combining. Because most of the previous work on RBF was done using annual data, we especially expected it to perform well with annual data. 相似文献
Rapid consolidation in the hospital industry, as health care markets respond to consumer pressures for more cost-effective delivery of health care services, has focused increased attention on antitrust enforcement theories and actions. This paper reviews the Federal agency challenges of four recent hospital mergers that have all been denied by the courts, but for varying reasons. Questions raised include the appropriate definition of the product and geographic markets, the extent of realizable merger-specific efficiencies and the influence of non-profit status on hospital behavior. The lack of conclusive empirical economic evidence on these topics undoubtedly contributes to the current divergence of opinion among regulators, courts and hospitals. This paper also identifies how each of the subsequent papers in this special issue contributes valuable findings to inform the lively debate. 相似文献
Religious tourism in Italy has always been an attractor at an international level. For many centuries, it has been entirely represented by the Christian pilgrimage to St. Peter’s Basilica. In recent decades, however, the religious scenery has changed deeply, and now includes even non-Christian religions and spiritualities. In this paper we compare two (very different) Buddhist centers, both located in places of Italy where tourism is not (or is no more) a significant component of the local economy. Buddhist centers are increasingly becoming popular tourist attraction: our purpose is to investigate to what extent and under which conditions they can be actors of local tourism development. The most significant of these conditions seems to be the nature of the center itself, ranging from a hermitage relatively unconcerned about any quantitative development, to a structure where spiritual ends are reconciled both with expansion and with economic integration within the local community. 相似文献
This paper considers the post‐war development of asset management practices among Australian life insurers, which have historically been among the largest institutional investors in Australia. A complex process of adaptation and organisational restructuring allowed life insurers to transform from basic investors of policy‐holders’ funds to large multifaceted institutional investors in just three decades. Three stages in the development of investment practices are identified. These phases trace the process of expanding existing knowledge bases; diversification; and the acquisition of new skills; consolidation and the integration of these skills into institutional structures; thus completing one cycle of organisational learning and setting the stage for the next. 相似文献
Since the 1990s financial sector regulation in Australia has treated credit unions and building societies the same as banks under the designated title of authorized depository institutions. This allows credit unions to choose between different organizational structures: cooperative; convert to customer‐owned banks or to demutualize. This article utilizes semi‐structured interviews to analyse the key motivations for organizational change. It examines a number of credit unions and their conversion experience to customer‐owned banks. It finds that adaptation of the credit union model was necessary to change customer perceptions, ensure future growth in the customer base and assets, and facilitate access to capital raisings with the credit rating of a bank. Despite this change customer‐owned banks retain the core principals of mutuality. 相似文献
This study examined the effects of a mentoring curriculum embedded within a recreation program on youth's self-regulation. Self-regulation scores were collected on 64 youth participants: 29 in the comparison group and 35 in the treatment group. Using the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Functions (Guy, Isquith, &; Gioia, 2004Guy, S., Isquith, P., &; Gioia, G. (2004). Behavior rating inventory of executive function—self-report version: Professional manual. Lutz, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources.[Google Scholar]) as a measure of self-regulation, scores were collected pre-, middle, and postrecreation program. Results indicated significant (p <. 008) differences among the treatment and comparison conditions with the treatment site exhibiting greater increases in self-regulation over time compared with the comparison site. Implications from the study suggest that recreation programs are well positioned to incorporate formalized mentoring that supports the development of self-regulation in youth. 相似文献
Sri Mulyani's resignation as finance minister in May disturbed markets and aroused concern about the government's commitment to reform. This concern was partly alleviated by the appointment of two well-respected individuals as finance minister and deputy finance minister. Further progress with reform will depend heavily on this new team and other key officials. Strong presidential support will also be needed to resist attempts by parliament to interfere excessively with the finance ministry's work.
The economy continued its steady recovery from the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC), but the recovery could still be jeopardised if sovereign debt concerns in Europe persist and block the rebound in global trade and commodity prices. Inflation continues to accelerate, suggesting little room for complacency on monetary policy. Fiscal policy, on the other hand, remains conservative. The higher deficit in the revised 2010 budget is not excessive, and is unlikely to be realised in any case. The real budget challenge is to spend budgeted amounts fully and well. The new five-year plan is also conservative and does little to clarify spending priorities, including for the president's ‘connectivity’ agenda.
Despite the GFC, poverty continued to decline, thanks largely to the uninterrupted expansion of GDP and to cash transfers to the poor. Unemployment also continued to fall, although particular groups suffered slight increases in unemployment (young workers 15–25 years old) and somewhat larger reductions in working hours (urban, non-poor, and male-headed households). Nevertheless the large and sustained deceleration of manufacturing growth and the closely related dramatic shift of employment from the formal to the informal sector provide cause for concern. Distortionary labour market policies may help to explain both.
A new mining law significantly alters the legal environment for firms in this industry, and also introduces long discredited policies intended to ‘increase value added’ by requiring the domestic processing of minerals. A new law on local government taxes attempts to reduce uncertainty for citizens and investors, but the nature of overall spending by local governments is of much greater importance for the investment climate. The central government has recently been seeking to restore the role of the ‘missing intermediate’ level of government and to boost the centre's indirect control over local governments through provincial governments and governors. This strategy is unlikely to succeed, but it highlights the conflicting requirements for provincial governors to act as agents of the central government while also being accountable to their provincial electorates. 相似文献