从债法视角论倒签提单行为的法律性质

作为国际贸易实践中极为普遍的运输单据欺诈之一,倒签提单行为法律性质的认定在审判实践中往往引起诸多争议。倒签提单行为衍生自国际贸易合同和海上货物运输合同,其本身不能脱离合同而独立存在,因此从债法角度分析倒签提单的法律性质将更为清晰。倒签提单行为的通常情形是违约行为,构成特例侵权行为;倒签提单的行为人在整体上应当承担违约责任,在特例中才能构成违约责任和侵权责任的竞合。     

早期河北乡村合作社农贷机制实证研究

河北的乡村合作事业起源于1923年华洋义赈会创办的信用合作社。在其早期发展中,完全凭借社会团体及农民的积极参与,建立了一套有效的农贷管理与风险防范机制,第一次实现了农业贷款的低风险运作,并取得了良好的社会效应,成为近代合作金融领域社会力量主导模式成功的典范。     

现阶段财政政策与货币政策协调配合的几个问题

本文分析了宏观间接调控所主要依仗的财政、货币两大政策的异同及协调配合的必要性,提出财政政策侧重于调结构和货币政策侧重于调总量的分工,并具体讨论了在国债、财政存款、外汇储备等"结合部"领域的合理协调,最后强调了优化我国两大政策协调配合所应注重的制度建设问题。     

代际支持、女性劳动供给与中国性别工资差异收敛−基于性别分工的视角

我国"男主外、女主内"的性别分工观念年深日久,但相比世界很多国家,女性劳动参与率反而很高、性别工资差异也较低,中国文化中长期承袭着父辈对子女代际支持的传统可能是缓解女性劳动供给约束的重要动因.文章构建考虑父辈代际支持的家庭劳动供给模型,利用中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),分析了父辈时间支持和经济支持对子女,特别是女性劳动力的劳动供给和工资收入的影响与机制.研究发现,父辈的时间支持明显缓解女性劳动参与的时间约束,提高其劳动供给和工资收入,但没有发现对男性有显著影响,故有利于性别工资差异收敛;而父辈的经济支持均未发现对子女的劳动参与和工资收入有显著影响.此外,对城乡进行区分后发现,父辈时间支持对城镇女性的作用比农村女性更强.文章的研究有助于加深对我国劳动力市场中女性劳动供给行为和性别工资收敛性的理解,对进一步完善劳动就业制度也有一定启示.     

创新引领城市高质量发展:创新原理、思路与要领的探讨

紧紧抓住创新的"第一动力"和乘数放大效应,引领超常规、可持续发展,是中国优化城市与区域发展战略的重点和内在要求.本文从创新的意义与相关学理剖析入手,从新供给经济学的分析视角切入,提出经济发展供给侧创新作用原理的理论模型与量化表达,形成以"守正出奇""守正创新"支持高质量发展潜力释放思路要领的框架性认识.结合中国当下发展新形势,以创新引领城市高质量发展这一命题,指出需以制度创新、科技创新和管理创新相结合,以供给侧结构性改革为主线,针对中国新型城镇化战略的客观要求,从国土开发顶层设计入手,动态优化各地定制化解决方案,并把握高质量发展的共性要求,以宜居宜业改善民生为核心优化公共服务供给,把握好制造业的提质增效升级发展,优化收入分配推进城乡一体共赢.此外,要抓住已涌现的"一带一路"建设与"新老基建"等发展机遇,注重新型城镇化中的有效投融资,西部城市需在应对挑战中把握后发优势,以"有效市场+有为、有限政府"组合打开活力潜力空间,推进中国经济社会实现弥合"二元经济"的新型城镇化和城乡一体化之现代化愿景.     

Foreign direct investment and China's regional income inequality

China's widening regional income inequality coupled with its pronounced regional disparity in foreign direct investment stock since 1990 has claimed the attention of many scholars. While some researchers confirm regional disparity in China's foreign direct investment, others attribute the widening regional income inequality to this regional disparity. This paper thus assesses the impacts of China's stock of foreign direct investment on its regional income inequality using simultaneous equation model and the Shapley value regression-based decomposition approach. Our results suggest that China's stock of foreign direct investment has accounted for merely 2% of its regional income inequality. Furthermore, the contribution ratio of per capita foreign direct investment stock to China's regional income inequality has relatively been on a steady decline since 2002. The decomposition results also reveal that provincial per capita physical assets account for over 50% of the nation's income inequality and 65% of the increases in income inequality since 1990. The other two important determinants of regional income inequality are province location and educational level. However, educational level is found to have a decreasing effect on regional income inequality.     

Estimation of Binary Response Models With Endogenous Regressors

This paper reviews six approaches to binary response (y₁) structural forms with an endogenous regressor y₂: (i) the two‐stage least squares estimator‐like substitution approach, (ii) the control function approach, (iii) the system reduced‐form approach, (iv) the artificial instrumental regressor approach, (v) the transformed‐response instrumental variable estimator approach and (vi) the classical maximum likelihood estimator approach. The applicability of the six methods differs greatly, depending on whether y₂ is a continuously distributed random variable or a discrete transformation of a latent . We conduct a real‐data‐based simulation study, and provide an empirical illustration. Our overall recommendation is using (i) and (ii), as the others have undesirable features such as analytic complexity in (iii), computational difficulty in (iv) and (vi), and poor finite‐sample performance in (v).     

Effects of government spending shocks in China,Japan, and Korea

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the effects of government spending shocks on various key macro variables in China, Korea, and Japan using structural VAR models. The main empirical findings are as follows. Government spending multipliers of all three countries are far larger than 1 in recent years. The effectiveness of fiscal expansion has not changed markedly in China but substantially increased in Korea (after the Asian financial crisis) and Japan (during zero lower bound period). Increases in the effectiveness of fiscal expansion are associated with changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy regimes and institutions of these countries. Among the three countries, the government spending multiplier is relatively large in China but relatively small in Japan in recent years. Although the effects on exchange rate and trade balance vary across countries and sample periods, real exchange rate tends to depreciate, whereas trade balance tends to improve under flexible exchange rate regimes. Some empirical findings are consistent with standard theory, but others are not.

Abbreviations: NK: New Keynesian VAR: Vector Autoregressive ZLB: Zero Lower Bound     

The effect of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of trade

This study examines the impact of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Since trade data contain excessive zero trade flows, we adopt recently suggested Poisson and Gamma pseudo maximum likelihoods. ???Our finding shows that immigrant stock in South Korea has significant effect on both the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Immigrants’ network seems to decrease variable as well as fixed costs of trade.     

中国石油进出口分析及相关问题探讨

本世纪以来,我国石油进口量和进口额快速上升,引起国内外的关注。从能源/石油消费弹性系数、石油在一次能源消费构成中份额的变化,以及处于工业化初级阶段且人均耗油量很低的国情出发,文章认为我国有降低能源/石油消费弹性系数和大幅提高其利用效率的空间,但存在着增加石油消费量和进口量的刚性需求。十余年来,我国石油进口量和金额的双攀升不但没能制约经济发展、反而成为促进其快速增长的因素之一。预测近中期我国油气进口量和进口依存度仍将持续上升,且在2015-2020年可能成为世界油气第一进口国。为此,应提高国内油气产量和使用效率,生产和出口高附加值产品;以广义多元化的方式保障油气进口。文章还认为,进口量和进口依存度的大小与能源安全不存在简单的对等关系,建设足够的储备和参与国际合作是最重要的能源安全保障措施。