Determining the cointegrating rank in nonstationary fractional systems by the exact local Whittle approach

We propose to extend the cointegration rank determination procedure of Robinson and Yajima [2002. Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems. Journal of Econometrics 106, 217–242] to accommodate both (asymptotically) stationary and nonstationary fractionally integrated processes as the common stochastic trends and cointegrating errors by applying the exact local Whittle analysis of Shimotsu and Phillips [2005. Exact local Whittle estimation of fractional integration. Annals of Statistics 33, 1890–1933]. The proposed method estimates the cointegrating rank by examining the rank of the spectral density matrix of the d$d$th differenced process around the origin, where the fractional integration order, d$d$, is estimated by the exact local Whittle estimator. Similar to other semiparametric methods, the approach advocated here only requires information about the behavior of the spectral density matrix around the origin, but it relies on a choice of (multiple) bandwidth(s) and threshold parameters. It does not require estimating the cointegrating vector(s) and is easier to implement than regression-based approaches, but it only provides a consistent estimate of the cointegration rank, and formal tests of the cointegration rank or levels of confidence are not available except for the special case of no cointegration. We apply the proposed methodology to the analysis of exchange rate dynamics among a system of seven exchange rates. Contrary to both fractional and integer-based parametric approaches, which indicate at most one cointegrating relation, our results suggest three or possibly four cointegrating relations in the data.     

The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model $X_t=\gamma Z_t+Y_t$, where $Z_t$ belongs to a large class of deterministic regressors and $Y_t$ is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression, and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are ${\chi }^2$-distributed.     

Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks

We introduce deep habits into a sticky-price sticky-wage economy and examine the resulting models ability to account for the impact of monetary policy shocks. The deep habits mechanism gives rise to countercyclical markup movements even when prices are flexible and interacts with nominal rigidities in interesting ways. Key parameters are estimated using a limited information approach. The deep habits model can account very precisely for the persistent impact of monetary policy shocks on aggregate consumption and for both the price puzzle and inflation persistence. A key insight is that the deep habits mechanism and nominal rigidities are complementary: the deep habits model can account for the dynamic effects of monetary policy shock at low to moderate levels of nominal rigidities. The results are shown to be stable over time and not caused by monetary policy changes.     

Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model

We extend the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH) model for daily stock return data with long memory in return volatility of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996) by introducing a possible volatility-in-mean effect. To avoid that the long memory property of volatility carries over to returns, we consider a filtered FIEGARCH-in-mean (FIEGARCH-M) effect in the return equation. The filtering of the volatility-in-mean component thus allows the co-existence of long memory in volatility and short memory in returns. We present an application to the daily CRSP value-weighted cum-dividend stock index return series from 1926 through 2006 which documents the empirical relevance of our model. The volatility-in-mean effect is significant, and the FIEGARCH-M model outperforms the original FIEGARCH model and alternative GARCH-type specifications according to standard criteria.     

Continuous‐time models,realized volatilities,and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns

We provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous‐time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance. Our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures and non‐parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high‐frequency intra‐day data. A sequence of simple‐to‐implement moment‐based tests involving various transformations of the daily returns speak directly to the importance of different distributional features, and may serve as useful diagnostic tools in the specification of empirically more realistic continuous‐time asset pricing models. On applying the tests to the 30 individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, we find that it is important to allow for both time‐varying diffusive volatility, jumps, and leverage effects to satisfactorily describe the daily stock price dynamics. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adaptation investments and homeownership

This article develops a model where ownership improves the efficiency of the housing market as it enhances the utility of housing consumption for some consumers. The model is based on an extended Hotelling–Lancaster utility approach in which the ideal variant of housing is obtainable only by adapting the home through a supplementary investment. Ownership offers low costs of adaptation, but has high contract costs compared with renting. Consumers simultaneously choose housing demand and tenure, and because of the different cost structure only consumers with strong preferences for individual adaptation of the home choose ownership. This article analyses the consumer’s optimization. The model provides an explanation for the observation that homeowners typically live in larger dwelling units than tenants. It also provides an explanation for a high price of housing services tending to reduce homeownership rates.     

The causal effect of board size in the performance of small and medium-sized firms

Empirical studies of large publicly traded firms have shown a robust negative relationship between board size and firm performance. The evidence on small and medium-sized firms is less clear; we show that existing work has been incomplete in analyzing the causal relationship due to weak identification strategies. Using a rich data set of almost 7000 closely held corporations we provide a causal analysis of board size effects on firm performance: We use a novel instrument given by the number of children of the chief executive officer (CEO) of the firms. First, we find a strong positive correlation between family size and board size and show this correlation to be driven by firms where the CEO’s relatives serve on the board. Second, we find empirical evidence of a small adverse board size effect driven by the minority of small and medium-sized firms that are characterized by having comparatively large boards of six or more members.     

Prices and Information Under Imperfect Competition

Imperfectly competitive product markets cannot be informationally efficient as private information has strategic implications interfering with price adjustment. This is illustrated in a duopoly model with sequential price setting where private information either leads to prices not being adjusted to all available information or to adjusted but biased prices.     

Young tourists visiting strip clubs and paying for sex

Little is known about young adults’ use of strip clubs and prostitution during their holidays abroad. This study examined this issue with a sample of 1125 Danish tourists between the ages of 16 and 34, and sought data about the frequency with which they paid for sex and attended strip clubs while they were on holiday. The tourists were surveyed at a Bulgarian airport before their return trip home. The incidence of strip-club patronage during holiday was 48% for men and 8% for women. Of the men, 12.5% reported paying for sex during their holiday. Among the men paying for sex, 47% reported having done it for the first time. Among the men who attended strip clubs, 32% reported having done it for the first time. Strip-club patronage and paying for sex were both associated with higher levels of drinking, use of Viagra^®, and with having done the same thing before the holiday. Paying for sex was uniquely associated with non-use of condoms with one or more sexual partners. The results of this study can be interpreted as part of a wider culture of commodified debauchery, which predominates many nightlife resorts.     

Dynamic Costs of the Draft

Abstract. We propose a dynamic general‐equilibrium model with human capital accumulation to evaluate the economic consequences of compulsory services (such as military draft or social work). Our analysis identifies a so far ignored dynamic cost arising from distortions in time allocation over the life cycle. We provide conservative estimates for the excess burden that arises when the government relies on forced labor rather than on income taxation to finance public expenditures. Our results suggest that eliminating the draft could produce considerable dynamic gains, both in terms of GDP and lifetime utility.