Total factor productivity growth in banking: The Israeli banking sector 1979–1982

The primary focus of this paper is the modeling and estimation of total factor productivity growth in banking. The measured total factor productivity growth is decomposed into its main components: 1) scale economy and output growth, 2) branching effect, and 3) technological change effect. Our findings indicate that total factor productivity grew at an annual average rate of 7.8% for the 1979–1982 period but this growth has slowed down to only 2.9% for the 1981–1982 period. Scale economy and output growth have contributed to about four-fifths of the growth, whereas branch growth and technical change have contributed to one-fifth of the growth. An important observation is the increasing importance of both branch growth and technical change throughout the period, especially for smaller banks.The refereeing process of this paper was handled by J. van den Broeck.     

Combinatorial agency

We study a combinatorial variant of the classical principal-agent model. In our setting a principal wishes to incentivize a team of strategic agents to exert costly effort on his behalf. Agents? actions are hidden and the principal observes only the outcome of the team, which depends stochastically on the complex combinations of the efforts by the agents. The principal seeks the mechanism that maximizes the principal?s net revenue given an equilibrium behavior of the agents. We investigate the structure of the optimal mechanism for various production technologies as the principal?s value from the project varies. In doing so we quantify the gap between the first-best and second-best solutions. Our results highlight the qualitative and quantitative differences between production technologies that exhibit complementarities and substitutabilities between the agents? actions. In comparing the first best with the second best we highlight the role of effort monitoring by the principal. As we shall see, the benefit from monitoring crucially depends on the underlying technology, with the two polar cases being perfect substitution and perfect complementarity.     

Determinants of internal migration in Israel: expected returns and risks

A multinomial logit model of place-to-place migration focusing on economic, geographic and demographic factors is applied to empirical data on inter-regional migration in Israel in 1980. It explains 75% of the (cross-sectional) variance in the data. The results presented in this paper depart from previous empirical work due to its industrialized context and its focus on risk aversion as a determinant of the migration decision. The results support the Harris–Todaro (1970) hypothesis, and indicate that regional similarities in the structure of industrial employment promote migration.     

Recent Progress on Endogeneity in Choice Modeling

We describe recent progress in several areas related to endogeneity, including: choice set formation and attention to attributes; interactions among decision-makers; respondents' strategic behavior in answering stated preference choices; models of multiple discrete/continuous choice; distributions of willingness-to-pay; and methods for handling traditionally endogenous explanatory variables.     

Consideration set influences on consumer decision-making and choice: Issues,models, and suggestions

This paper affords a stylized view of individual consumer choice decision-making appropriate to the study of many marketing decisions. It summarizes issues relating to consideration set effects on consumer judgment and choice. It discusses whether consideration sets really exist and, if so, the factors that affect their composition, structure, and role in decision-making. It examines some new developments in the measurement and modeling of consideration set effects on decision-making. The paper concludes with suggestions for needed research. The authors wish to acknowledge the numerous ideas and perspectives contributed by the other members of the Banff Symposium workshop:Mukesh Bhargava (University of Alberta),Bill Black (Louisiana State University),Gary Gaeth (University of Iowa),Hotaka Katahira (University of Tokyo, Japan),Gilles Laurent (Centre HEC-ISA, France),Irwin Levin (University of Iowa),David Midgley (Australian Graduate School of Management),Thomas Novak (Southern Methodist University), andJames Wiley (University of Alberta). This paper has benefited greatly from their contributions.     

Life‐Cycle Patterns of Interest‐Rate Mark‐Ups in Small‐Firm Finance*

We derive empirical implications from a theoretical model of bank–borrower relationships. The interest‐rate mark‐ups of banks are predicted to follow a life‐cycle pattern over the age of the borrowing firms. Because of endogenous bank monitoring by competing banks, borrowing firms initially face a low mark‐up, and thereafter an increasing mark‐up as a result of informational lock‐in, until it falls for older firms when the lock‐in is resolved. By applying a large sample of predominantly small unlisted firms and a new measure of asymmetric information, we find that firms with significant asymmetric‐information problems have a more pronounced life‐cycle pattern of interest‐rate mark‐ups. Additionally, we examine the effects of concentrated banking markets on interest‐rate mark‐ups. The results indicate that the life cycle of mark‐ups is mainly driven by asymmetric‐information problems and not by concentration. However, we find evidence that bank market concentration matters for older firms ? 2 Correction added after online publication on 20^th February 2012; the original text read ‘However, we find evidence that bank market concentration for older firms’, omitting the word ‘matters’.
     

Mechanisms for a spatially distributed market

We consider the problem of a spatially distributed market with strategic agents. A single good is traded in a set of independent markets, where shipment between markets is possible but costly. The problem has previously been studied in the non-strategic case, in which it can be analyzed and solved as a min-cost-flow problem. We consider the case where buyers and sellers are strategic. Our first result gives a double characterization of the VCG prices, first as distances in a certain residue graph and second as the minimal (for buyers) and maximal (for sellers) equilibrium prices. This provides a computationally efficient, individually rational and incentive compatible welfare maximizing mechanism. This mechanism is, necessarily, not budget balanced and we also provide a budget-balanced mechanism (which is also computationally efficient, incentive compatible and individually rational) that achieves high welfare. Finally, we present results for some extensions of the model.     

A diffusive wander through human life

Moshe Milevsk takes a random walk through the human life cycle and reflects on how quantitative finance is transforming thefield of personal wealth management.