An integrative analysis of business bankruptcy in Australia

This paper proposes an integrative and dynamic approach for analyzing business failure. The simultaneous estimation results obtained with Australian data indicate significant associations between bankruptcy rates in different industries. Most of these associations are positive and hence implying that bankruptcy in one industry can inflict a ‘domino’ effect on other industries. The estimated significant negative association between current and lagged bankruptcy rates in the industries under consideration lend support to the survival of the fittest hypothesis. The estimation results also highlight the important effects of industry, domestic and international economic conditions on bankruptcy rates.     

The fragility of a discipline when a model has monopoly status

We consider the consequences of a scientific literature with only one model of an important phenomenon. The falsification of the model would mean falsification of the science. Scientists who would prefer not to have their discipline falsified will be tempted to find ad hoc explanations to excuse the failure. To test this hypothesis we propose a study of the economic forecasts of the comparative Soviet and American growth rates in the years before a public choice model of central planning was a viable alternative to the public interest model. JEL Code A11, B23 Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the University of Manitoba Economics Department Retreat in October 2005 and at the Center for Study of Public Choice Wednesday Seminar in November 2005. We thank the participants for their suggestions. All the remaining errors are our responsibility.     

THE COUPON EFFECT ON TERM PREMIUMS

Monthly holding period returns for U.S. Treasury bills and notes of identical maturity indicate a significant coupon effect upon term premiums. Hotelling's T² test of the vectors of mean term premiums indicates that term premiums are not statistically significant for notes but are significant for bills. Mean-variance and stochastic dominance criteria indicate an investment preference for bills over notes on a pretax basis. Because the data set is Treasury bills and notes, which are identical except for coupon level, these results are evidence of a coupon effect on term premiums.     

Economical evaluation of greenhouse layout design

This paper offers mutual exchange of knowledge and expertise between agriculture and production-economy by economical evaluation of greenhouses. Greenhouses are Hi-Tech horticulture farms, in which advanced technological infrastructure increase production efficiency by providing optimal growing conditions. However, this infrastructure involves high capital investments. There are other cost sources, of which labor is dominant, generally in horticulture and in greenhouses in particular. Efficient use of space and labor are often conflicting goals in greenhouse layout design. In this paper, these conflicts are presented and illustrated, and tools are developed to evaluate layout design by the resultant annual operational profit, thus enable comparison of alternative layouts. To increase accessibility, spreadsheet software is used for the calculations. Further, the spreadsheet is designed to support WHAT-IF analyses. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated via numerical analyses of layout design of an actual greenhouse for pepper growing using the Holland method. Evidently, the layout design can have significant effect on the economical efficiency of the greenhouse—annual profit increases by, at least 12%, and up to 40%! The tradeoff between space utilization and resource utilization; e.g., labor, is common to all greenhouses, whether vegetables, flowers or other plants are grown in them and the tools presented herein can be easily modified to any desired case.     

Real Longevity Insurance with a Deductible: Introduction to Advanced-Life Delayed Annuities (ALDA)

Abstract

This paper explores the financial properties of a concept product called an advanced-life delayed annuity (ALDA). The ALDA is a variant of a pure deferred annuity contract that is acquired by installments, adjusted for consumer price inflation, and pays off toward the end of the human life cycle. The ALDA concept is aimed at the growing population of North Americans without access to a traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plan and the implicit longevity insurance that a DB plan contains. I show that under quite reasonable pricing assumptions, a consumer can invest or allocate $1 per month, while saving for retirement, and receive between $20 and $40 per month in benefits, assuming the deductible in this insurance policy is set high enough. The ALDA concept might go a long way in mitigating the psychological barrier to voluntary lump-sum annuitization.     

Art. 19 der Wet op de Coöperatieve Vereenigingen

Amsterdam, 16 Mei 1913     

The religious factor in private education

We quantify the religious factor in private education in the United States by calibrating a political economy model of school choice—among public, private-nonsectarian and subsidized religious schools—in which parents differ in their incomes and in their preferences for religious education. This shows strong latent demand for religious schooling, conditioned on current subsidized tuition levels in parochial schools, which is suppressed by the need to “pay twice” for private education. Applying the results of the calibration to gauge the effect of means-tested school voucher programs on religious and nonsectarian private enrollment, we find that when the amount of the voucher is relatively small, including subsidized religious schools in such programs is necessary for providing low-income families effective access to private education.     

The Poverty of Politics: How Income Redistribution Hurts the Poor

In spite of the significant research literature identifying a tradeoff between income redistribution and economic growth, massive public programs have been implemented to help the poor by transferring income to them. Since Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty began in 1964, over 3.5 trillion dollars have been transferred. However, the possibility that everyone, including the poor, may in fact be made worse off by the transfer has largely been ignored. With a simple algebraic model, the authors demonstrate that, over time, both high and low-income groups are harmed by redistribution. In addition, social mobility, as well as political concerns with relative poverty and international income redistribution increases the damage to all income groups produced by redistribution.