Emerging economies in the 2000s: Real decoupling and financial recoupling

The paper documents an intriguing development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging market assets that predates the synchronized selloff during the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a common, global investor base for EM, could lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker economic ties. While an examination of the impact of alternative financial globalization proxies yield no conclusive result, a closer look at global emerging market equity and bond funds show that the latter indeed foster financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.     

Risk aversion and skewness preference

Empirically, co-skewness of asset returns seems to explain a substantial part of the cross-sectional variation of mean return not explained by beta. This finding is typically interpreted in terms of a risk averse representative investor with a cubic utility function. This paper questions this interpretation. We show that the empirical tests fail to impose risk aversion and the implied utility function takes an inverse S-shape. Unfortunately, the first-order conditions are not sufficient to guarantee that the market portfolio is the global maximum for this utility function, and our results suggest that the market portfolio is more likely to represent the global minimum. In addition, if we do impose risk aversion, then co-skewness has minimal explanatory power.     

Bonds versus stocks: Investors’ age and risk taking

It has become increasingly popular to advise investors to relocate their funds from a primarily stock portfolio to a primarily bond portfolio as they get older. However, the well-known decision rules such as mean–variance or stochastic dominance rules are unable to explain this common practice. Almost stochastic dominance (ASD) and almost mean–variance (AMV) approaches are used to examine the dominance of stock and bond portfolios. ASD and AMV rules unambiguously support the popular practice of advising higher stock to bond ratio for long investment horizons. Hence, we provide an explanation to the practitioners’ recommendation within the expected utility paradigm.     

Decision-making under uncertainty – A field study of cumulative prospect theory

The presented research tests cumulative prospect theory (CPT, [Kahneman, D., Tversky, A., 1979. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47, 263–291; Tversky, A., Kahneman, D., 1981. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211, 453–480]) in the financial market, using US stock option data. Option prices possess information about actual investors’ preferences in such a way that an exploitation of conventional option analysis, along with theoretical relationships, makes it possible to elicit investor preferences. The option data in this study serve for estimating the two essential elements of the CPT, namely, the value function and the probability weighting function. The main part of the work focuses on the functions’ simultaneous estimation under CPT original parametric specification. The shape of the estimated functions is found to be in line with theory. Comparing to results of laboratory experiments, the estimated functions are closer to linearity and loss aversion is less pronounced.     

The independent and joint effects of the skill and physical bases of relatedness in diversification

By examining the independent and joint effects of the skill and physical bases of relatedness, this study develops a multidimensional view of relatedness in diversification. The paper compares the ways the two bases identify relatedness, and examines empirically the relationship between relatedness and performance for a sample of 158 large diversified manufacturing firms. Each base of relatedness alone had no significant effect on financial performance. However, when the two approaches were combined, there was a strong positive effect on most indicators of performance. The findings demonstrate how different bases of relatedness complement and extend one another, and they clarify findings of previous studies that used a single base of relatedness. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Counterfactual analysis of bank mergers

We introduce a counterfactual analysis of banks mergers, combining the pre-merger equilibrium setting with post-merger environmental characteristics, while accounting for endogenously propagated changes in market structure. Using this procedure we are able to estimate the effects on loan flows and interest rates that would have been observed if the pre-merger equilibrium was not altered. Results are obtained for firms, households, and banks inside and outside the merging circles separately. We find that mergers increased firms’ access to credit, but had an opposite effect on households and led to a widespread decrease in interest rates.     

Consumer Skepticism of Claims in Food Ads vs. on Food Labels: An Exploration of Differences and Antecedents

Considerable evidence shows that consumers are skeptical of advertising, that is, have a tendency to doubt the truth of advertising claims. The main focus of our paper is to explore, in the context of food products, whether this typically high level of skepticism is also exhibited for product labels. In addition, we look at consumer skepticism associated with health claims in food ads and labels as well as with the Nutrition Facts Panel on food packages. Finally, we examine some individual difference factors that might influence consumer skepticism. We report the results of a large‐scale survey designed to explore these issues, and we discuss the implications of our findings for public policy and future research.     

A Model of Bargaining over Hazardous Waste Cleanup

We put forward a formal model of a bargaining problem in which two parties suspected of contaminating the environment are responsible for clean-up costs. If the parties do not negotiate an agreement on a cost allocation, one will be imposed by the government. This process is commonly used in environmental cleanups performed under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund). Passed by the US Congress in 1980 and administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), CERCLA provides the U.S. government with authority to manage releases (or threatened releases) of hazardous substances that may endanger public health or the environment. We conclude that potentially responsible parties will be induced to settle only in the face of specific allocations of clean-up and explicit threats. For example, at the Middlefield–Ellis–Whisman Superfund site in Mountain View, California, the responsibilities of the different parties for soil and groundwater contamination are understood by all, yet our negotiation model predicts that without the threat that additional costs will be imposed, agreement on the allocation of clean up costs will never be reached.     

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

We explore issues of group decision making for reducing global environmental risk, with particular reference to the political dynamics surrounding international agreements on tackling climate change. Continuing political delays in deciding to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may make it necessary to resort to high risk and controversial geo-engineering solutions, such as injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, despite the unforeseen, potentially catastrophic consequences that these entail. Advances in drama theory (dt.2) are used to analyze the prospects for agreement on reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, following the Bali agreement of December 2007. It is concluded that Western nations and emerging economies are behaving like players in a game of “chicken”, each expecting the other to take on the main burden of emissions reduction. We judge it unlikely that either will play a full part until it is too late for emissions reduction alone to avert environmental catastrophe. At that point, parties will resort to geo-engineering “fixes”, despite the risks. However, all such forecasts are conditional on decisions made and attitudes taken by political leaders and the public. Our analysis serves to pinpoint the relevant decisions and attitudes.     

Basel’s value-at-risk capital requirement regulation: An efficiency analysis

We analyze the optimal portfolio policies of expected utility maximizing agents under VaR Capital Requirement (VaR-CR) regulation in comparison to the optimal policy under exogenously-imposed VaR Limit (VaR-L) and Limited-Expected-Loss (LEL) regulations. With VaR-CR regulation the agent strategy consists of simultaneous decisions on both the portfolio VaR and on the implied amount of required eligible capital. As a result, the performance of VaR-CR regulation depends on its design (the parameter n) and the agent preferences. We show that an optimal VaR-CR regulation allows the regulator on the one hand, to completely eliminate the exposure to the largest losses, which may jeopardize the existence of the institution, and on the other hand, to restrain the portfolio exposure to all other losses. These results rationalize the current Basel regulations. However, the analysis shows also that there is an optimal level of required eligible capital from the regulator standpoint. Counter-intuitively, any requirement above this optimal level is inefficient as it leads to a smaller amount of actually maintained eligible capital and thereby to a larger exposure to the most adverse states of the world. Unfortunately, the current Basel’s range of required levels (n = 3–4) is within this inefficient range. Moreover, with an inefficient regulation the agent might employ an inefficient reporting and disclosure procedure.