The effects of Federal funds rate surprises on S&P 500 volatility and volatility risk premium

In this paper, we examine the effects of expected and surprise components in Federal funds target rate changes on realized and implied volatility. We find that surprise changes in the target rate significantly increase volatility. Consistent with the efficient market hypothesis, our analysis suggests that the expected component of a target rate change as well as the target rate change itself, do not significantly affect volatility. We also show that larger than expected decreases in the Federal funds target rate tend to lower the volatility risk premium.     

Unification of Dual Foreign Exchange Markets

In this paper I investigate the impact of overnight floating of the official rate and easing foreign exchange restrictions on post-unification domestic inflation rate. After analysing the behaviour of an economy under dual foreign exchange markets, an official market with a crawling foreign exchange rate and a free illegal parallel market. The paper also shows that maintaining a unified free exchange rate depends on the degree of foreign exchange restrictions under dual foreign exchange system and on the level of the official reserve that prompts foreign exchange liberalisation policy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Portfolio diversification: the influence of herding,status-quo bias,and the gambler’s fallacy

This experimental study examines the influence of herding [following the majority of fellow gamblers or the most successful gambler (guru)], status-quo bias, and the gambler’s fallacy on diversification behavior. We find that neither herding nor status-quo bias contributes significantly to non-optimal portfolio choices. The gambler’s fallacy, however, plays an important role in these decisions. Many subjects appear to find patterns in a history of random events and then use these “patterns” to infer the sequence of future events. The gambler’s fallacy is significantly responsible for the fact that the optimal structure of a portfolio is considered in only 37.7% of all choices made by an investor.     

The association between non-financial performance measures in executive compensation contracts and earnings management

Executive compensation, especially cash bonus compensation, has come under fire by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US Federal government, and the media for its role in the current economic crisis. Specifically, the SEC has argued that some compensation packages provide incentives for risk-taking that may undermine shareholder value over the long-term. Short-term incentive payments to executives in the form of cash bonuses are mostly contingent on reaching targets of accounting-related measures or financial performance measures (FPMs). However, the incentives from these payments may lead to accrual manipulation and earnings management (EM). Alternative measures are non-financial performance measures (NFPMs). We expect that firms that employ NFPMs in bonus contracts will have a lower prevalence of EM, since these measures tend to focus executives on the long-term. In this paper, we examine the type of performance measures used by firms in the S&;P 500 index in their cash bonus compensation. We find that firms that use both FPMs and NFPMs have lower discretionary accruals compared to firms that use only FPMs, consistent with lower income-increasing EM. However, we do not find evidence of a reduction in EM behavior using the incidence of meeting or just beating analyst earnings benchmarks, another common EM proxy. In additional tests on a subset of firms with equity offerings, in which incentives for income-increasing manipulation are likely high, we find that firms with NFPMs have lower discretionary accruals. The implication is that NFPMs can be used in compensation contracts to reduce EM behavior and mitigate erroneous executive compensation. This is important to investors as well as regulators, especially in light of the recent debate on compensation reform.     

Alumni Orientation: Development of the Construct

The aim of this article is to conceptualize and empirically examine the constructs that constitute the concept of Alumni Orientation (AO). Using a discovery-oriented approach, conducted by supplementing educational and marketing literatures with in-depth interviews from 22 alumni personnel in six different UK universities, the author identified three second-order formative constructs and three first-order reflective constructs to measure the concept of AO. The study then developed a self-administrated survey to validate the six identified constructs that form AO. Through using rigorous statistical analysis, the study confirms that the measurement instrument for AO is the 48 items that can be validly and reliably measured using the nine multi-item components of: Case for Support; Alumni Database Management; Social Media Management; Financing Event Management; Financing Publication Management; Promoting Best Practices of Event Management; Promoting Best Practices of Publication Management; Intrafunctional Coordination; and Interfunctional Coordination.     

Foreign capital inflows,domestic savings and the price of political stability in the sudan: Weisskopf revisited

This paper reworks Weisskopf's estimates of the effect of foreign capital inflow on domestic savings for a later time period. The Sudan is presented as an example of a public sector dominated economy, dependent on one major export crop and politically unstable. While Weisskopf's savings function had an indication of a negative relationship between public sector savings and official foreign capital inflow, problems of collinearity between the independent variables cast doubt on its utility for analysis of economies dependent on limited primary exports. The negative relationship between public sector savings and official is explained in terms of the expansion of the state's bureaucracy and military.