Adjustment costs and time-to-build in factor demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry

In order to explain cyclical behavior of factor demand, the static neoclassical model of the firm has been extended to include either adjustment costs (e.g. Lucas (1967)) or time-to-build considerations as in Kydland and Prescott (1982). This paper presents an intertemporal factor demand model which accounts for adjustment costs and gestation lags. The closed form solution of the model is a highly restricted vector ARMA-process that is estimated using quarterly data for the manufacturing industry in the U.S., 1960–1988. The main conclusion is that both sources of dynamics of factor demand are identifiable and found to be empirically of importance.     

Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?

Abstract. This paper deals with a critical assessment of the ‘non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (NAIRU) for Germany. There are quite a few obstacles to perceiving the NAIRU as an easy‐to‐use analytical instrument: the possibility of a non‐vertical Phillips curve, the occurrence of shocks and hysteresis effects, and the (mis‐)measurement of important variables, cointegration issues and a time variability of the NAIRU. A new attempt is made to estimate a NAIRU for Germany using direct measures of inflationary expectations. However, by any method, the NAIRU is very hard to determine and subject to considerable arbitrariness.     

关于完善佛山市基层农业公共服务体系的调研报告

本文以佛山市基层农业技术推广、动植物疫情防控、农产品质量监管三大体系为研究重点,基于调研各区（未含顺德区）、镇（街道）获取的基本数据,深入剖析基层农业公共服务体系存在的问题,提出改进工作的相关建议。     

Beyond survival: the implementation of new forms of work organization in the UK and German steel industries

This paper outlines and analyses the major changes in work-force organization that have been introduced by British and German steel producers in the past decade, against a backcloth of retrenchment in the industry, new product development and technological change. Including multiskilling, a reduction in demarcation and team–working, these changes have had a major effect upon the composition of the work–force and the nature of work undertaken at the shopfloor level.

While these changes have had a common broad trajectory, they have been introduced at a different pace and in different forms. The contrasts are provided not only at the international level, but between plants in the same countries. The paper further outlines the response of trade unions to these changes and the implications for industrial relations at the shopfloor level.     

Energy Prices and Carbon Taxes under Uncertainty about Global Warming

This paper extends the strategic interactions between producers of fossil fuels concerned about their profits and a taxing government concerned about the consumers’ welfare for uncertainty: global warming follows an Itô -process. Stochasticity requires to differentiate between reversible and irreversible emissions in contrast to the deterministic version. The unconstrained (= reversible) case allows for a closed form solution but not the more realistic and constrained case. Nevertheless interesting analytical properties (e.g. about when to stop emissions, implicit conservation due to monopolistic supply) are derived and complemented by a numerical example.     

如行家般看奥运开闭幕式

当2004年雅典奥运会闭幕式上的希腊女孩以最自然纯朴却又动人的方式“吹灭”主火炬时，全世界人的目光追随着前北京市长王岐山手中飘扬的奥林匹克五环旗聚焦北京。对于那届奥运会，人们永远不会忘记那梦幻光影下的希腊众神和水面上“熊熊燃烧”的奥林匹克五环，当然，还有完美诠释希腊人对奥林匹克深刻理解的点火仪式。在那届奥运会的闭幕式上，北京以8分钟表演正式登场。当中国演员们走下奥林匹克体育场的舞台，2008年北京奥运会将以一场怎样的仪式和演出开场，就成为全世界人们关注的焦点。     

Hysteresis in economic relationships: An overview

I am grateful for helpful comments to G. Heidbrink, J. Möller, H.J. Ramser, W. Scheremet, and W. Smolny (University of Konstanz).