关于完善佛山市基层农业公共服务体系的调研报告

本文以佛山市基层农业技术推广、动植物疫情防控、农产品质量监管三大体系为研究重点,基于调研各区（未含顺德区）、镇（街道）获取的基本数据,深入剖析基层农业公共服务体系存在的问题,提出改进工作的相关建议。     

Stock Markets,Banks and Long Run Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis

The aim of this paper is to investigate the long run relationship between the development of banks and stock markets and economic growth. We make use of a Johansen-based panel cointegration methodology allowing for cross-country dependence to test the number of cointegrating vectors among these three variables for 5 developing countries. In addition, we test the direction of potential causality between financial and economic development. Our results conclude to the existence of a single cointegrating vector between financial development and growth and of causality going from financial development to economic growth. We find little evidence of reverse causation as well as bi-directional causality. We interpret this as evidence supporting the significance of financial development for economic development although banks and stock markets may have different effects depending on the level of economic development.     

Testing the dynamic specification of an econometric model with an application to Belgian data

In this paper, we analyze the Final Equation and Transfer Function form associated with a linear dynamic simultaneous equation model and use the empirical findings as a guidance to a structural form specification in accordance with the information in a sample of monthly Belgian data.     

United States and German Real Capital Formation and Social Investment in the Sciences and Humanities

Two rules for optimizing economic growth are applied to the United States and Germany. One application is to test both against the Golden Rule of Capital Accumulation, and the other is to measure social investment in the sciences and humanities against Euler’s equation.     

The lucas supply function and the feasibility of monetary stabilization policy with rational expectations

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Effektivität systematischer (d. h. regelgebundener) Geldpolitik in einem makroökonomischen Modell mit einer Lucas-Angebotsfunktion, rationalen Erwartungen und asymmetrischer Information. InMcCallum (1980) wurde dieses Modell anhand der Methode der unbestimmten Koeffizienten gelöst und gezeigt, daß die Notenbank die Varianz des Outputs durch die Wahl des Politikparameters in einer einfachen Geldmengenregel (autoregressiver Prozeß erster Ordnung) beeinflussen kann. Die Auswirkungen von monetären Schocks können dabei zwar gedämpft, aber nicht vollständig eliminiert werden.In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das Modell anhand der Methode der forward looking solutions gelöst und gezeigt, daß esunendlich viele Geldmengenregeln gibt, welche den Output von Geldangebots- und Güternachfrageschocksperfekt abschirmen. Produktivitätsschocks können hingegen nur kurzfristig neutralisiert werden.

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I am indebted to H. Frisch, Ch. Peutl, and unknown referees for their valuable comments and suggestions.     

Adjustment costs and time-to-build in factor demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry

In order to explain cyclical behavior of factor demand, the static neoclassical model of the firm has been extended to include either adjustment costs (e.g. Lucas (1967)) or time-to-build considerations as in Kydland and Prescott (1982). This paper presents an intertemporal factor demand model which accounts for adjustment costs and gestation lags. The closed form solution of the model is a highly restricted vector ARMA-process that is estimated using quarterly data for the manufacturing industry in the U.S., 1960–1988. The main conclusion is that both sources of dynamics of factor demand are identifiable and found to be empirically of importance.     

Judgment aggregation: (im)possibility theorems

The aggregation of individual judgments over interrelated propositions is a newly arising field of social choice theory. I introduce several independence conditions on judgment aggregation rules, each of which protects against a specific type of manipulation by agenda setters or voters. I derive impossibility theorems whereby these independence conditions are incompatible with certain minimal requirements. Unlike earlier impossibility results, the main result here holds for any (non-trivial) agenda. However, independence conditions arguably undermine the logical structure of judgment aggregation. I therefore suggest restricting independence to “premises”, which leads to a generalised premise-based procedure. This procedure is proven to be possible if the premises are logically independent.