Forward and spot exchange rates in a bivariate TAR framework

Structural exchange rate models explain only a small part of the movements in dollar exchange rate. Recent empirical work has focused on the failure to account for nonlinearities in the data generating mechanism, as an explanation of this bad performance. Here two bivariate threshold autoregressive models for the spot and forward exchange rates are considered. In the first model the regimes are determined by the log difference of the two rates; in the second one the regimes are driven by the forward spot no-arbitrage condition. These processes are able to capture the ‘swing’ behaviour observed in the exchange rate market. Finally the forecasting ability of the models for the dollar/DM exchange rate is evaluated by stochastic simulation.     

Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies

A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate whether the preferred course of action is avoiding the activity without further study, engaging in the activity without further study, or conducting a test or research programme to obtain additional information and following the result. When these thresholds are low, precautionary action is more likely to be warranted. When there are multiple stakeholders, differences in their perceptions of the benefit and cost of avoidance and differences in their perceptions of the accuracy of the additional information provided by the test or research programme combine to create differences in their decision thresholds. Thus, the model allows for the rational expression of differences among parties in a way that highlights disagreements and possible paths to conflict resolution. The model is illustrated with an application to phytosanitary standards in international trade and examined in terms of recent empirical research on lay perceptions of risks, benefits, and trust. Further research is suggested to improve the elicitation of model components, as a way of fostering the legitimate application of risk-based decision analysis in precautionary policy making.     

How AIS can progress along with ontology research in IS

Recent years have witnessed a strong and growing interest in the computer science (CS) and information systems (IS) disciplines in applying and extending ontological principles to various CS/IS domains such as knowledge representation, natural language processing, conceptual modeling, and IS development. Similar interest and work have also been observed in accounting information systems (AIS) research. Though ontology research in AIS has enjoyed sustained interest and produced some significant results, there is relatively little incorporation of recent developments in CS/IS ontology research into AIS. This paper provides an overview of some leading areas of ontology research in CS/IS and AIS in an attempt to bridge this gap. The main objectives of this paper are to (1) introduce CS/IS ontology research, (2) highlight areas of future research in AIS where CS/IS ontology research developments can be used to address important and pressing issues, and (3) broaden an area of research where AIS can make unique contributions to distinguish itself.     

Pricing equity options everywhere

Finite difference methods are a popular technique for pricing American options. Since their introduction to finance by Brennan and Schwartz their use has spread from vanilla calls and puts on one stock to path-dependent and exotic options on multiple assets. Despite the breadth of the problems they have been applied to, and the increased sophistication of some of the newer techniques, most approaches to pricing equity options have not adequately addressed the issues of unbounded computational domains and divergent diffusion coefficients. In this article it is shown that these two problems are related and can be overcome using multiple grids. This new technique allows options to be priced for all values of the underlying, and is illustrated using standard put options and the call on the maximum of two stocks. For the latter contract, I also derive a characterization of the asymptotic continuation region in terms of a one-dimensional option pricing problem, and give analytic formulae for the perpetual case.     

The use of organic models of control in JIT firms: generalising Woodward’s findings to modern manufacturing practices

Prior research indicates that technology plays an important role in the determination of management control systems. A fully developed JIT system represents a radical departure from the traditional approach to organising and managing mass production. In probing the management control implications of JIT, this study extends some well-established concepts from organisation theory to the modern manufacturing practices literature to develop a framework which suggests that mass production firms adopting JIT (a new technology) must abandon a mechanistic management control system and adopt an organic model of control. Findings from three case studies describing the control structures used in JIT firms are also presented as part of the theoretical and hypothesis development. In addition, survey results are reported which are highly consistent with the framework, indicating that Woodward’s findings (Industrial organization: theory and practice (2nd ed.). Oxford: Oxford University Press.) generalise (are robust) to a new technology. Finally, a preliminary examination into whether improvements in certain key areas are higher for those JIT firms utilising an organic model of management was performed and found to be consistent with expectations.     

Beyond the purchasing power parity: testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates

This paper reexamines the causality between the dollar and the yen in a multivariate framework with the aid of cointegration and error-correcting modeling for the 1951–94 period. The Phillips-Perron tests and Johansen's tests are performed. While causality from interest rates to exchange rates is found in the short run, no causality between prices and exchange rates is found in the short run. However, causality is found running from relative prices to exchange rates along with interest rates between the U.S. and Japan in the long run, which supports the long-run PPP hypothesis.     

Pricing of Foreign GAAP Earnings in U.S. Capital Market Prior to the SEC Required Reconciliation Disclosure

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires foreign registrants to include in their annual reports on Form 20-F reconciliation to U.S. GAAP of net income, earnings per share, and shareholders' equity, if materially different. Previous research indicates that foreign firms usually file their reports with the SEC near or at the deadline, that is six months after the fiscal year-end and about three months after the earnings announcement. The purpose of this study is to examine U.S. investors' ability to interpret foreign GAAP earnings before the SEC regulated disclosure becomes publicly available. Presented empirical evidence indicates that market participants are able to infer U.S. GAAP earnings from the foreign GAAP earnings at the time of initial earnings announcements.     

Call Options, Points, and Dominance Restrictions on Debt Contracts

We analyze the impact of a contract's length, callability, amortization, and original discount by arbitrage methods. Among instruments that are callable without penalty, longer instruments command a higher interest rate because the borrower possesses the option of repaying relatively more slowly. However, the rate on longer self-amortizing loans cannot be substantially larger than for shorter ones because the payments decrease with contract length. Bounds on the trade-off between points and rate for callable debt are characterized using the trade-off for noncallable debt and the property that the value of the prepayment option increases with the loan's interest rate.