Least squares, preliminary test and Stein-type estimation in general vector AR(p) models

In the general vector autoregressive process AR ( p ), multivariate least square estimation (LSE)/maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of a subset of the parameters is considered when the complementary subset is suspected to be redundant. This may be viewed as a special case of linear constraints of autoregressive parameters. We incorporate this nonsample information in the estimation process and propose preliminary test and Stein-type estimators for the target subset of parameters. Under local alternatives their asymptotic properties are investigated and compared with those of unrestricted and restricted LSE. The dominance picture of the estimators is presented.     

Shocking Stories

The paper provides a survey of methods that decompose multivariate series into permanent and transitory components by using ideas drawn from the co-integration literature. We adopt a two stage procedure to effect the decomposition. In the first stage a basic set of permanent and transitory components is formed by using standard definitions of the shocks which they are constituted from. The resulting measurements are not unique and further information needs to be employed to get uniqueness. Such information can come in many forms but a particularly important one involves the values of the long-run multipliers for permanent shocks that are available from many calibrated models. A comparison of the methods of effecting the decomposition is performed using a well known data set.     

(Non-)Existence of Equilibria in Multicommunity Models

This paper reconsiders equilibrium existence in models with migration and voting over local public goods. We show that under some straightforward assumptions on preferences and income distributions, the basic structure of multicommunity models (i.e., perfect mobility, majority rule, single crossing property) implies that no equilibrium with jurisdictions conducting different policies can exist. Stratification equilibria—with sorting of the population according to income classes—are therefore not as natural as is sometimes suggested. Mechanisms that can serve to support stratification (i.e., tight housing markets, returns to scale in the provision of publicly consumed goods) are discussed.     

The effect of physician advice on alcohol consumption: count regression with an endogenous treatment effect

Although there are encouraging trends, alcohol abuse continues to be a significant public health problem. Econometric studies of alcohol demand have yielded a great deal of information for alcohol abuse prevention policy. These studies suggest that higher alcohol taxes and stricter drunk‐driving policies can reduce heavy drinking and drunk driving. In this paper we explore the role physician advice plays in the campaign to prevent alcohol‐related problems. Compared to alcohol taxation, physician advice is a more precisely targeted intervention that does not impose extra costs on responsible drinkers. Compared to the resource costs of arresting, processing, and punishing drunk drivers, physician advice may be a lower‐cost intervention. To provide a basis for alcohol policy analysis, we use an alcohol demand framework to test whether physician‐provided information about the adverse consequences of alcohol abuse shifts demand to more moderate levels. There are three aspects of our alcohol demand model that complicate the estimation: (1) the dependent variable is non‐negative (it is a count variable—number of drinks consumed); (2) a non‐trivial number of sample observations have zero values for the dependent variable; and (3) because the data we use is non‐experimental, the treatment variable indicating receipt of advice from a physician may be endogenous. We implement an estimation method that is specifically designed to deal with these three complicating factors. Our results show that advice has a substantial and significant impact on alcohol consumption by males with hypertension, and that failing to account for the endogeneity of advice masks this result. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Customers of performing arts organisations: are subscribers different from nonsubscribers?

The subscribing customers of performing arts organisations are an indispensable, but frequently maligned source of patronage for the arts. This paper reviews some of these criticisms in the arts literature and assesses previous research on subscribers. Audience studies of the customers of cultural organisations have generally focused on usage differences (eg nonusers, frequent users) rather than subscriber/nonsubscriber differences. Based on theories of relationship marketing, the paper describes how relational subscribers may differ from nonsubscribing customers who frequent the arts but are more transactional in their exchanges with the cultural organisation. The results of a survey of subscribing and nonsubscribing customers of a repertory theatre company are presented to show differences between these two types of customer. Subscribers have higher levels of satisfaction, trust and commitment, and have more positive intentions of supporting and donating to the organisation. The arts patronage goals of subscribers are more congruent with the goals of the cultural organisation. Subscribers are more satisfied with familiar than with famous performers, and are comfortable with diversity in the choice of repertoire. Other factors examined include differences in overall involvement with the category of theatre, perceptions of risk and value, use of information sources, and reasons why some customers choose not to subscribe. The paper concludes with discussion of the importance of relationship marketing and subscribing customers for the performing arts organisation. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications     

Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates

We perform out-of-sample predictions on several dollar exchange rate returns by using time-delay embedding techniques and a local linear predictor. We compared our predictions with those by a mean value predictor. Some of our predictions of the exchange rate returns outperform the predictions of the same series by the mean value predictor. However, these improvements were not statistically significant. Another interesting result in this paper which was obtained by using a recently developed technique of nonlinear dynamics is that all exchange rate return series we tested have a very high embedding dimension. Additionally, evidence indicates that these series are likely generated by high dimensional systems with measurement noise or by high dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems, that is, nonlinear deterministic systems with dynamic noise.     

Ordering univariate distributions by entropy and variance

This paper examines the role of variance and entropy in ordering distributions and random prospects. There is no universal relation between entropy and variance orderings of distributions. But we place their relationship in the context of a stronger ordering relation known as dispersion ordering. Further, some conditions are identified under which variance and entropy order similarly when continuous variables are transformed. We also analyze parametric changes which do not disturb the agreement between these rankings. The results are conveniently tabulated in terms of distribution parameters.