Bayesian inference in threshold stochastic frontier models

In this paper, we generalize the stochastic frontier model to allow for heterogeneous technologies and inefficiencies in a structured way that allows for l     

Measuring Uncertainty for New Zealand Using Data‐Rich Approach

This paper develops two state‐of‐the‐art uncertainty indices for New Zealand by exploiting two separate data‐rich environments. The first index follows the methodology outlined in Jurado, Ludvigson and Ng (2015) to construct an estimate of uncertainty based on a large New Zealand macro dataset. The second index is constructed based on freely accessible and real time Google Trends data to provide a real‐time and freely‐accessible measure of uncertainty as in Castelnuovo and Tran (2017) and Shields and Tran (2018). Both indices do a reasonable job measuring uncertainty in New Zealand. VAR evidence documents significant impacts of uncertainty shocks on GDP in New Zealand.     

Building a computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy

In this paper, we develop a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium tax model for Italy allowing for a number of fiscal tools. We illustrate the methodology for modelling and accommodating the full range of direct and indirect taxes into the national general equilibrium model. In particular, we build a commodity tax matrix by commodity, source, user and tax type; and a production tax matrix by industry and tax type. We also put a special emphasis on the institutional sector accounts, incorporating a detailed system of equations. Our model provides a powerful tool for acquiring new insights in fiscal policy analysis, through the assessment of tailored tax reforms, which can consist of either changes in tax rates and tax bases for indirect and direct taxes. Finally, to validate the model we perform an equalizing Value-Added-Tax rates reform. We find that a budget-neutral uniform tax rate reform would be GDP and welfare improving. However, results across agents and sectors vary.     

The dynamic impact of macroeconomic factors on initial public offerings: evidence from time-series analysis

This article examines the explanatory power and the dynamic impact of macroeconomic conditions on Initial Public Offering (IPO) activities in US during the period from 1970 to 2005. Applying time-series econometric techniques, we find the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships between IPO activities and selected macroeconomic variables. Stock market performance and volatility are shown to play the most important role in the timing of IPOs. The Fed funds rate and the 10 year US Treasury Bond (TB) yield play a comparable role in determining the amount of proceeds raised in the IPOs. There also exist different short-run dynamic adjustment mechanisms between IPOs and macroeconomic factors towards the long run equilibrium path and they are mostly completed within the period of 6 months to 1 year. The results have some useful implications for forecasting IPO activities.     

Medium,message and advertising effectiveness in the Greek processed meats industry

This paper examines the effectiveness of advertising in the fast-growing Greek processed meats sector using an unbalanced panel data set of 34 firms during the period 1983–1997. In analysing the relationship between firms' sales and advertising this study differentiates between the type/content of the advertising message and the medium used to communicate it. Advertising expenditures are disaggregated into company and product campaigns in television, radio, and print media. Empirical results strongly reject the hypothesis of homogeneous consumer response to all kinds of advertising that is implicit in studies that aggregate advertising expenditures. The results also indicate an inefficient allocation of advertising resources by the firms of the sector; advertising in the least utilized print media was determined to be by far the most effective strategy during the study period.     

Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness

This paper attempts to reconcile the high estimates of price stickiness from macroeconomic estimates of a New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with the lower values obtained from surveys of firms’ pricing behaviour. This microeconomic evidence also suggests that the frequency with which firms adjust their prices varies across sectors. Building on the insights of Carvalho (2006), we present Monte Carlo evidence that suggests that in the presence of this heterogeneity estimates of the NKPC obtained using conventional methods, such as GMM, are likely to considerably overstate the degree of aggregate price stickiness. Furthermore, if roundabout production is a characteristic of the economy the NKPC will falsely suggest that a sizeable fraction of prices are indexed to past inflation. These problems arise because of a type of misspecification and a lack of suitable instruments.     

Causality and wage price inflation in West Germany 1964–1979

Zusammenfassung Kausalit?t und Lohn-Preis-Inflation in Westdeutschland 1964–1979. — In diesem Aufsatz wird ein Vierteljahresmodell der Lohn- und PreisInflation in Westdeutschland (1964 bis 1978) entwickelt. Es verwendet das Konzept der Phillips-Kurve, betont aber die überprüfbare Lohndruck-Hypothese und enth?lt die folgenden sechs Variablen: Konsumentenpreise, Effektivl?hne, Streiks, Tarifl?hne, Nachfrage nach Arbeitskr?ften und die Geldmenge M 1. Mit Hilfe des Konzepts der Wiener-Granger-Kausalit?t und kürzlich entwickelter Methoden der multivariaten Zeitreihenanalyse entsteht ein empirisches Kausalit?tsmodell der Lohn-Preis-Inflation für Westdeutschland. Dieses Modell stützt in starkem Ma\e die Lohndruck-Theorie und weist der Geldversorgung eine unbedeutende Rolle zu. Eine zweiseitige Kausalit?t besteht zwischen den Effektiv- und den Tarifl?hnen, so da\ es unangebracht ist, zeitlich verteilte Lags anzunehmen für die Tarifl?hne in der Lohngleichung oder umgekehrt für die Effektivl?hne in der Gleichung der Tarifl?hne. W?hrend sich als Hauptursache der Lohninflation die Inflationserwartungen und die Tarifl?hne identifizieren lassen, geh?ren zu den wichtigsten Ursachen der Preisinflation die erwarteten Preissteigerungen und die Erh?hung der Kapazit?tsauslastung.

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Résumé Causalité et l’inflation de prix et de salaire en Allemagne de l’Ouest 1964–1979. — Dans cet article l’auteur formule un modèle trimestriel de l’inflation de salaire et de prix pour l’Allemagne de l’Ouest sur la période de 1964.1 à 1978.4. Le modèle utilise les éléments fondamentaux de la courbe de Phillips, mais souligne l’hypothèse testable des déterminants de ?wage-push? et consiste de six variables économiques principales: les prix de consommation, les salaires nominaux, les grèves, les salaires contractuels minimum, la demande de la main-d’oeuvre et les disponibilités monétaires (M1). L’auteur applique le concept de causalité de Wiener-Granger aussi bien que des méthodes des séries chronologiques multivariates développées récemment et obtient un modèle empirique de causalité. Le modèle fortement supporte la théorie de ?wage-push? et révèle un r?le insignifiant des disponibilités monétaires. Une causalité deux-voies peut être observée entre les salaires nominaux et les salaires contractuels minimum. Par conséquent, il n’est pas indiqué de spécifier une structure des décalages retards distribués pour les salaires contractuels dans l’équation de salaire ou, qui est équivalent, pour les salaires nominaux dans l’équation de salaires contractuels minimum. Pendant que l’inflation anticipée et les salaires contractuels sont regardés comme les causes principales de l’inflation de salaire les facteurs décisifs de l’inflation de prix incluent les augmentations des prix attendues et l’augmentation de l’utilisation des capacités.

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Resumen Causalidad e inflation salarios-precios en Alemania Occidental 1964–1979. — En este artícule se formula un modelo trimestral de inflatión de salarios y precios para Alemania Occidental en el período 1964.1 a 1978.4. Este modelo se basa en la racionalidad de la curva de Phillips pero pone enfasis en la hipótesis comprobable de determinantes de presión de salarios y consiste de seis variables económicas importantes: precios al consumidor, salarios monetarios, huelgas, tasas de salarios mínimos negociados, demanda por trabajo y oferta de dinero M1. Usando el concepto de causalidad Wiener-Granger y métodos de series de tiempo multivariables desarrollados recientemente se obtiene un modelo empérico causal de inflatión salarios precios para Alemania Occidental. Este modelo da fuerte apoyo a la teoría de presión de salarios y revela un papel insignificante para la oferta de dinero. Hay una doble causalidad (o de feedback) presente entre salarios monetarios y tasas salariales minimas negociadas y, tomo tal, la práctica de especificar una estructura de rezago distribuida para estas tasas salariales en la ecuación de salarios, o equivalentemente, para salarios monetarios en la ecuación de tasas salariales mínimas negociadas es inapropiada. Mientras que las principales causas de la inflatión salarial se pueden identificar como inflatión anticipada y tasas salariales mínimas negociadas, las principales causas de la inflatión de precios incluyen aumentos de precios esperados y el aumento de la capacidad utilizada.

     

On the choice of functional form in stochastic frontier modeling

This paper examines the effect of functional form specification on the estimation of technical efficiency using a panel data set of 125 olive-growing farms in Greece for the period 1987–93. The generalized quadratic Box-Cox transformation is used to test the relative performance of alternative, widely used, functional forms and to examine the effect of prior choice on final efficiency estimates. Other than the functional specifications nested within the Box-Cox transformation, the comparative analysis includes the minflex Laurent translog and generalized Leontief that possess desirable approximation properties. The results indicate that technical efficiency measures are very sensitive to the choice of functional specification. Perhaps most importantly, the choice of functional form affects the identification of the factors affecting individual performance – the sources of technical inefficiency. The analysis also shows that while specification searches do narrow down the set of feasible alternatives, the identification of the most appropriate functional specification might not always be (statistically) feasible. First version received: November 1999/Final version received: July 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  The authors wish to thank Almas Heshmati, Robert Romain, and an anonymous referee for insightful comments and suggestions. Special thanks go to the associate editor who handled the paper, and whose careful reading and suggestions have improved the paper substantially. The second author wishes to acknowledge the financial support from “President SSHRC” from the University of Saskatchewan. The usual caveats with respect to opinions expressed in the paper apply. Senior authorship is shared. This is University of Nebraska-Lincoln Agricultural Research Division Article No. 13270.     

Has Reality Television Come of Age as a Promotional Platform? Modeling the Endorsement Effectiveness of Celebreality and Reality Stars

Reality television programming (RTVP) was once simply an innovative entertainment phenomenon. But RTVP also has recently evolved into a mainstream promotional platform. Two new forms of celebrities arose during this progression: “reality” and “celebreality” stars. This study, which is grounded in connectedness theory, addresses an unresolved issue related to the use of celebrity endorsers, that is, how endorsers’ status as reality or celebreality stars influences viewers’ perceptions of, beliefs about, and purchase intentions toward products they endorse. These relationships were examined through SEM, as were the effects of viewers’ connectedness to RTVP stars and their perceptions regarding whether RTVPs are authentic. Four primary findings emerged. The observation that reality impacted viewer connectedness and that connectedness and authenticity impacted viewers’ purchase intentions (endorsement effectiveness) revealed various practical and theoretical contributions, as did the observation that endorsers’ celebreality or reality star status moderated each of these relationships.