Using managers' expectations for ex-ante policy evaluation: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

Evaluation of the impacts of government policies during an economic crisis is often delayed until the outcomes are realized. Policies can be better guided if they can be evaluated amid a crisis, before the realization of outcomes. This study examines whether survey data on the expectations of small business managers can help evaluate two high-stake subsidies for firms amid the COVID-19 crisis in Japan, namely, Subsidy Program for Sustaining Businesses (SPSB) and Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS). We evaluate the accuracy of managers' expectations, estimate the impact of subsidies on the expected firm survival, and compare it with the estimated impact on realized survival. We find that the managers' expectations on their future sales, survival rate, and the possibility of receiving these subsidies predict the realized outcomes, although they were highly pessimistic about their survival rates. We find that the estimated impacts of the SPSB on the expected survival rates have the same sign as the estimated impact on the realized survival rates, but the size is more than twice because of the pessimism on survival. The estimated impacts of the EAS are both insignificant. Therefore, although its impact may be overestimated, managers' expectations are useful for selecting an effective policy.     

Behind the ‘creative destruction’ of human diets: An analysis of the structure and market dynamics of the ultra-processed food manufacturing industry and implications for public health

A global transition towards diets increasingly dominated by ultra-processed foods (UPFs) has occurred in recent decades to the detriment of public health and the environment. This study aimed to examine long-term trends in the structure and market dynamics of the global UPF manufacturing industry as part of broader efforts to understand the drivers of this transition. Using diverse methods, metrics and data sources, we examined several dimensions (e.g., industry concentration and profitability) according to an adapted structure–conduct–performance model. We found that the global UPF manufacturing industry has evolved to become a major component of global food systems, with its longstanding dominant corporations becoming some of the system's largest accumulators of profit and distributors of capital. It follows that reversing the global UPF dietary transition will require structural and regulatory changes to ensure that population diets, and food systems more broadly, are not subordinated to the interests of powerful for-profit business corporations.     

Risk premia in the term structure of crude oil futures: long-run and short-run volatility components

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This paper studies how volatility affects the risk premium in crude oil futures through a discrete-time term structure model with long-run and...     

The importance of morality for collective self-esteem and motivation to engage in socially responsible behavior at work among professionals in the finance industry

Public comments criticizing the honesty and trustworthiness of Professionals in Finance (PIFs) are commonly seen as a way to motivate them towards engaging in more socially responsible business practices. However, the link between public views of this professional group, the self-views of individual group members, and their motivation to engage in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities has not been empirically examined. In this research, we draw on Social Identity Theory (SIT) and the Behavioral Regulation Model for social evaluation (BRM) to examine how the self-views of individual group members relate to perceived characteristics of their professional group, indicating Competence and Morality. In two studies (N = 123, 191) we examined whether the self-views of high-profile and general PIFs are affected by other people's perceptions of the honesty and trustworthiness of this professional group. The results offer support for our reasoning derived from SIT and the BRM. In both studies, we first demonstrate that public concerns about the group's lack of honesty and trustworthiness impact on the moral self-views of financial professionals. Subsequently, we employ an experimental design to reveal that reinforcing moral criticism leveled at the group only reduces the motivation of individual group members to engage in CSR activities, while group-level moral affirmation enhances this motivation. The results of both studies converge to demonstrate how public critique on the moral behavior of their professional group relates to the self-views and behavioral motives of PIFs. We consider the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.