Stationary and Non-stationary Simultaneous Switching Autoregressive Models with an Application to Financial Time Series

A common observation among economists on many economic time-series, including major financial time-series, is the asymmetrical movement between the downward phase and the upward phase of their sample paths. Since this feature of time irreversibility cannot be described by the Gaussian ARMA, ARIMA or ARCH time-series models, we propose stationary and non-stationary simultaneous switching autoregressive (SSAR) models, which are nonlinear switching time-series models. We discuss some properties of these time-series models and the estimation method for their unknown parameters. The asymmetrical conditional heteroscedasticity can be easily incorporated into the SSAR models. We also report a simple empirical result on Nikkei 225 Spot and Futures indices by using a non-stationary SSAR model.
JEL Classification Numbers: C22, C32.     

Effects of Jumps and Small Noise in High-Frequency Financial Econometrics

Several new statistical procedures for high-frequency financial data analysis have been developed to estimate risk quantities and test the presence of jumps in the underlying continuous-time financial processes. Although the role of micro-market noise is important in high-frequency financial data, there are some basic questions on the effects of presence of noise and jump in the underlying stochastic processes. When there can be jumps and (micro-market) noise at the same time, it is not obvious whether the existing statistical methods are reliable for applications in actual data analysis. We investigate the misspecification effects of jumps and noise on some basic statistics and the testing procedures for jumps proposed by Ait-Sahalia and Jacod (Ann Stat 37–1:184–222 2009; 38–5:3093–3123 2010) as an illustration. We find that their first test (testing the presence of jumps as a null-hypothesis) is asymptotically robust in the small-noise asymptotic sense against possible misspecifications while their second test (testing no-jumps as a null-hypothesis) is quite sensitive to the presence of noise.     

Do deeper regional trade agreements enhance international technology spillovers?

We examine whether regional trade agreements (RTAs) enhance international technology spillovers using a panel of patent citation data for 114 countries/regions for the period 1991–2007. We use patent citations as a proxy for technology spillovers. The focus of this study is on whether the depth of regional integration matters for technology spillovers among member countries/regions of RTAs. The depth of integration is measured by the extent to which an RTA includes legal obligations outside the current mandate of the World Trade Organization. We find that the depth of integration actually influences technology spillovers and that a deeper integration in a broad sense has a greater impact on technology spillovers than do technology‐related provisions.     

Comparative statics for oligopoly: A generalized result

We perform comparative statics for a general model of asymmetric oligopoly and derive a concise formula for the response of one firm to a marginal change in its rival’s strategic variable, taking into account the responses of all other firms. We obtain the conditions under which the sign of this response coincides with that of the mixed second-order partial derivative of the firm’s payoff function. We then propose a distinction between gross and net strategic relationships (i.e., strategic substitute and complement).     

Correlated performance of firms in a transaction network

The correlation of firms’ performance on a transaction network is studied by analyzing financial and transaction data. Statistically significant correlation coefficients are obtained as evidence for the firm interactions. The firm interactions are taken into account in the basic equation of firm activity. Forty percent of residuals are explained by considering the firm interactions. The overall structure of the transaction network, i.e., the connectivity of industry sectors, is analyzed.     

Strategic policy for product R&D with symmetric costs

Abstract.  In this paper I examine strategic policy for product R&D in an international duopoly where domestic and foreign firms are identical. It is shown that strategic R&D policy is described by a subsidy schedule contingent on firms' quality choices. Unilateral policy enables its domestic firm to produce a high‐quality product, making equilibrium outcome unique. With two active governments, in equilibrium they implement different subsidy schedules. Two equilibrium outcomes exist, which are identical except for the identity of the countries. Thus, both countries have an equal chance to become the high‐quality exporter. Both Bertrand and Cournot cases are examined. JEL classification: F12, F13
Politique stratégique pour le R&D dans le développement de nouveaux produits quand les coûts sont symétriques.  Ce mémoire examine la politique stratégique pour le R&D dans le développement de produits nouveaux dans un duopole international où les entreprises domestique et étrangère sont identiques. On montre que cette politique est décrite par cédules de subventions qui dépendent des choix du niveau de qualité des entreprises. Une politique unilatérale permet à l'entreprise domestique de manufacturer un produit de haute qualité– ce qui engendre des résultats d'équilibre uniques. Si deux gouvernements sont actifs, en équilibre, ils mettent en place des cédules de subventions différentes. Deux résultats d'équilibre existent qui sont identiques sauf pour l'identité des pays. Donc les deux pays ont une chance égale de devenir l'exportateur du produit de haute qualité. On examine les cas de figure à la Bertrand et à la Cournot.     

Policy Interventions for Industrial Network Formation: Contrasting Historical Underpinnings of the Small Business Policy in Japan and the United States

This article examines the role of policies in promoting inter-firm networks, by contrasting policy frameworks for small businesses in Japan and the United States. While the policies in two countries share similarities in many respects, different historical underpinnings have led small business policies to play different roles in economies of Japan and the United States. This paper analyzes how Japan's small business policy came to encourage inter-firm collaborations over the course of its history, while policies in the United States have not had explicit orientation toward the development of inter-firm networks until the 1990s.     

Target Costing Performance Based on Alternative Participation and Evaluation Methods: A Laboratory Experiment

This paper deals with the motivational impacts of alternative participation and performance-evaluation methods on the cost- reduction performance of product designers in the product development process. Alternative participation methods for establishing the target cost consist of the participative and the nonparticipative approaches. Also, the alternative performance-evaluation methods include evaluations based on only the controllable item measure and on both controllable and uncontrollable items measures. To test the hypothesis which are proposed with respect to the above impacts, a laboratory experiment was conducted on 120 subjects. When participation and performance evaluation factors are considered separately, the cost-reduction performance of product designers is improved if they can participate in the target-setting process and are evaluated by their controllable item information. In investigating their joint influence, it is found that the combination of the participative method and controllable item and nonparticipative and uncontrollable item information have improved cost-reduction performance. Among all the independent variables, controllable item information is the most dominant variable as it has the strongest influence on cost reduction. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ON THE INFORMATIONAL EFFECT OF SHORT‐SALES CONSTRAINTS: EVIDENCE FROM THE TOKYO STOCK EXCHANGE

Using a database of stock lending fees for Japanese centralized margin transactions, I show that short‐sales constraints reduce the adjustment speed of stock prices to negative information before the announcements of revised earnings forecasts disclosed by firms in the Tokyo Stock Exchange from July 1998 to December 2001. I find that the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the stocks with high short‐sales costs are insensitive to negative information on pre‐announcement days, but the CARs of these stocks become significantly lower than the CARs of the stocks with low short‐sales costs when the announcements reveal negative information to the public.