Do dark pools amplify volatility in times of stress?

In this article, we explore the relationship between trading on dark pools and equity volatility in the context of the recent concerns about increase in frequency of market shocks combined with changes in market microstructure. In order to understand the potential role of dark pools in times of stress and implications for financial stability, it is essential to investigate the relationship between investor trading preferences and market volatility. For our analysis, we use data on daily trading volumes of FTSE100 stocks on dark and lit order books. We find evidence that dark pool trading has explanatory power in predicting volatility, implying that dark pools may affect the dynamics of price formation through liquidity. Our findings suggest that increased use of dark pools does not increase volatility, but may in fact lower it. Thus, dark pools may not be significantly detrimental to market stability in times of stress. This highlights the need for further analysis of the effects that shifting financial market structure might have on financial stability.     

A quantitative approach to multinational production

I examine new data on the number and revenues of foreign affiliates of multinational firms across a large number of country pairs. The data shed light on the behavior of the intensive and extensive margins of multinational production (MP). To capture the patterns observed in the data, I build and calibrate a multi-country general-equilibrium model of MP that combines a Lucas (1978) span-of-control with an Eaton and Kortum (2002) type model, and includes both fixed and variable costs of opening affiliates abroad. I use the calibrated model to calculate the gains that a country would experience from liberalizing access to foreign firms. Those calculations suggest that the welfare losses of closing up to foreign firms would be around 4%, while the gains of liberalizing access to foreign firms would be large, particularly if the variable – rather than the fixed – component of MP costs were lowered.     

Integrated variance forecasting: Model based vs. reduced form

This paper compares model-based and reduced-form forecasts of financial volatility when high-frequency return data are available. We derived exact formulas for the forecast errors and analyzed the contribution of the “wrong” data modeling and errors in forecast inputs. The comparison is made for “feasible” forecasts, i.e., we assumed that the true data generating process, latent states and parameters are unknown. As an illustration, the same comparison is carried out empirically for spot 5 min returns of DM/USD exchange rates.It is shown that the comparison between feasible reduced-form and model-based forecasts is not always in favor of the latter in contrast to their infeasible versions. The reduced-form approach is generally better for long-horizon forecasting and for short-horizon forecasting in the presence of microstructure noise.     

Participation in Workplace Pension Schemes and the Effect of Provision: Evidence from the United Kingdom*

This study investigates the effect of public policies enforcing workplace pension plan provision on participation rates. Using British data covering almost two decades (1992–2009), I identify the potential opt‐in rate among private sector workers who have not been offered a workplace pension plan, had they been offered the opportunity to join such a saving scheme. I find that universal provision of workplace pension schemes alone could generate a major impact on pension coverage.     

A Dynamic Model of Firm Valuation

We propose a dynamic version of the dividend discount model, solve it in closed form, and assess its empirical validity. The valuation method is tractable and can be easily implemented. We find that our model produces equity value forecasts that are very close to market prices, and explains a large proportion of the observed variation in share prices. Moreover, we show that a simple portfolio strategy based on the difference between market and estimated values earns considerably positive returns. These returns cannot be simply explained either by the Fama‐French three‐factor model (even after adding a momentum factor) or the Fama‐French five‐factor model.     

Structural estimation of stock market participation costs

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers' decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor income; however, it varies substantially over consumers' life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers' life cycle.     

Ownership structure and investment finance in transition economiesA survey of evidence from large firms in Hungary and Poland1

Using survey data on 157 large private Hungarian and Polish companies this paper investigates links between ownership structures and CEOs’ expectations with regard to sources of finance for investment. The Bayesian estimation is used to deal with the small sample restrictions, while classical methods provide robustness checks. We found a hump‐shaped relationship between ownership concentration and expectations of relying on public equity. The latter is most likely for firms where the largest investor owns between 25 percent and 49 percent of shares, just below the legal control threshold. More profitable firms rely on retained earnings for their investment finance, consistent with the ‘pecking order’ theory of financing. Finally, firms for which the largest shareholder is a domestic institutional investor are more likely to borrow from domestic banks.     

Management Buyouts and Human Resource Management

This paper reports the findings from a survey of the effects of management buyouts on human resource management (HRM). Buyouts resulted in increased employment, the adoption of new reward systems, and expanded employee involvement. These developments support the resource‐based view that buyouts develop internal assets over agency theory predictions that managers will adopt a cost reduction approach. The type of buyout influences the subsequent development of HRM. Buyouts report more commitment‐orientated employment policies where employees own shares, and where the buyout pursues a ‘buy and build’ corporate strategy and adopts a business strategy of enhancing customer service and developing markets.     

A Dynamic Model of the Firm: Structural Explanations of Key Empirical Findings

We derive a dynamic model of the firm in the spirit of the trade‐off theory of capital structure that explains firm behavior in terms of firm characteristics. We show our model is consistent with many important findings about the cross‐section of firms, including the negative relations between profitability and leverage, and between dividends and investment‐cash flow sensitivities. The model also explains the existence of zero‐debt firms and their observed characteristics. These results have been used to challenge the trade‐off theory and the assumption of perfect capital markets. We revisit these critiques and provide structural explanations for the regularities we replicate.     

Performance and size: empirical evidence from Portuguese SMEs

This article studies the relationship between company size and performance for small and medium-sized Portuguese companies. Using dynamic panel estimators, we conclude that performance is related positively to size. This relationship suggests the greater relevance of scale effects, diversification and the greater ability of larger companies to cope with market changes. Furthermore, our empirical results show that performance is persistent, not showing discontinuity, suggesting that small and medium-sized Portuguese companies are relatively successful in coping with possible scenarios of aggressive competition. Debt and level of fixed assets influence performance negatively, and separation of management and ownership influence performance positively. Liquidity, risk and ownership control are not relevant in explaining the performance of small and medium-sized Portuguese companies.