Predictive Modeling in Long-Term Care Insurance

The accurate prediction of long-term care insurance (LTCI) mortality, lapse, and claim rates is essential when making informed pricing and risk management decisions. Unfortunately, academic literature on the subject is sparse and industry practice is limited by software and time constraints. In this article, we review current LTCI industry modeling methodology, which is typically Poisson regression with covariate banding/modification and stepwise variable selection. We test the claim that covariate banding improves predictive accuracy, examine the potential downfalls of stepwise selection, and contend that the assumptions required for Poisson regression are not appropriate for LTCI data. We propose several alternative models specifically tailored toward count responses with an excess of zeros and overdispersion. Using data from a large LTCI provider, we evaluate the predictive capacity of random forests and generalized linear and additive models with zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and Tweedie errors. These alternatives are compared to previously developed Poisson regression models.

Our study confirms that variable modification is unnecessary at best and automatic stepwise model selection is dangerous. After demonstrating severe overprediction of LTCI mortality and lapse rates under the Poisson assumption, we show that a Tweedie GLM enables much more accurate predictions. Our Tweedie regression models improve average predictive accuracy (measured by several prediction error statistics) over Poisson regression models by as much as four times for mortality rates and 17 times for lapse rates.     

Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence

We examine the short-term price reaction of 424 UK stocks to large one-day price changes. Using the GJR-GARCH(1,1), we find no statistical difference amongst the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the Single Index, the Fama–French and the Carhart–Fama–French models. Shocks ?5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of 1% for all the models. Whilst shocks ?−5% are followed by a significant one-day CAR of −0.43% for the Single Index, the CARs are around −0.34% for the other two models. Positive shocks of all sizes and negative shocks ?−5% are followed by return continuations, whilst the market is efficient following larger negative shocks. The price reaction to shocks is unaffected when we estimate the CARs using the conditional covariances of the pricing variables.     

Moral Repair in the Workplace: A Qualitative Investigation and Inductive Model

The topic of moral repair in the aftermath of breaches of trust and harmdoing has grown in importance within the past few years. In this paper, we present the results of a qualitative study that offers insight into a series of key issues related to offender efforts to repair interpersonal harm in the workplace: (1) What factors motivate offenders to make amends with those they have harmed? (2) In what ways do offenders attempt to make amends? (3) What outcomes emerge from attempts to make amends? Drawing from the findings, we build an inductive model intended to guide future business ethics and management inquiry and research in this area.     

The Impact of Religion on the Going Concern Reporting Decisions of Local Audit Offices

We extend research on the effects of local audit office characteristics on audit quality by investigating whether audit offices in highly religious U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) exhibit going concern decisions that reflect heightened professional skepticism relative to audit offices in less religious MSAs. Prior research links religiosity to risk aversion and ethical development and suggests audit practice offices in more religious MSAs are more likely to issue going concern opinions because they will assess the effects of mitigating factors in a more skeptical manner. Our results indicate that audit practice offices located in highly religious MSAs are more likely to issue going concern audit opinions, consistent with a more skeptical assessment of mitigating factors. Additional tests provide direct evidence consistent with the argument that these audit offices are more risk averse in issuing going concern opinions. Our findings are relevant to auditors, audit clients, researchers, and regulators.     

Diversification Bias and the Law of One Price: An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds

Individual investors select high-fee index mutual funds despite the fact that the future payouts are nearly identical. The authors offer an explanation for this violation of the law of one price based on investor desire to diversify. While diversification in some settings may be beneficial, in the case of assets with identical payouts, fee minimization is the only rational strategy. The evidence confirms that investors diversify by selecting multiple higher fee funds rather than minimizing fees when investing in index mutual funds.     

Asymmetric competition and collection rates differentials: determinants of prices in international telephone service markets

The paper investigates determinants of pricing in international telephone service markets. The analysis—focused on 24 worldwide national markets—shows the impact of several telecommunications-specific and macroeconomic variables on collection rate differentials and traffic imbalance between countries. An econometric model is aimed at performing quantitative analysis and providing support to future telecommunications policies.     

Asymmetry in mobile access charges: is it an effective regulatory measure?

This paper analyses the regulation of the market of voice call termination on mobile networks, by considering the remedy of asymmetric access charges and the hypothesis of discriminatory retail pricing. In the two way interconnection, the operators revenue depends on two factors: the retail price and the access charge. If the retail prices are different between calls that terminate on the same network (on-net) and calls that terminate on the rival network (off-net), the competition is more complex, involving positive networks externalities for the incumbent operator. In order to reduce the competitive disadvantage for new entrants and smaller operators many European regulation authorities have introduced the remedy of asymmetric access charges. This paper is aimed at analysing the effectiveness of this regulatory measure, assuming that operators are differentiated in terms of brand loyalty and cost structure.     

The Influence of Reputation and Sector on Perceptions of Brand Alliances of Nonprofit Organizations

Brand alliances long have been used in the private sector and are being more frequently engaged by nonprofit organizations. It is assumed that the alliance benefits both organizations, particularly the focal nonprofit organization that strategically forms the partnership. But care must be taken in selecting partners. A quasi‐experimental design examines the relationship between partner reputation and sector (private or nonprofit) on subject willingness to contribute to a focal nonprofit organization. Partner public reputation was systematically varied using created organizations and a positive reputation enhanced willingness to contribute. Partnering with private sector organizations was only slightly less desirable than nonprofit organizations.     

From waste to hydrogen: An optimal design of energy production and distribution network

This paper focuses on evaluating the economic potential and infrastructure requirements of hydrogen production from agricultural residues, a representative green energy pathway. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming model is constructed for finding the most efficient and economical configuration of the whole pathway. Using northern California case studies, we found that hydrogen from agricultural wastes can be delivered at costs similar to producing hydrogen from natural gas, a non-renewable energy source. The potential impact of this energy pathway on local freight transport is also discussed depending on the choice of hydrogen delivery mode.     

School foodservice employees’ beliefs about local produce use at work and home

Sustainability practices are becoming an essential part of foodservice businesses. Schools often purchase local produce and use it in school meals as part of their sustainability efforts. School foodservice employees play an important role in the effectuation of these efforts and understanding their perceptions is important. A questionnaire was used to assess foodservice employees’ beliefs regarding the quality and benefits of local produce use in schools. Results indicate differences in employees’ perceptions regarding benefits and quality of local produce based on their perception of the importance of purchasing local produce for home use.