社交指数、风险倾向与创业

创业不仅是经济持续增长的动力,也是新常态下我国经济增长方式转变的重要源泉。从个人社交指数和风险倾向着手,分析其对个人创业的影响,同时考虑政府干预、市场成熟度和产权保护水平对社交指数和风险倾向与创业之间的调节作用,并将个人特质和区域因素作为控制变量纳入分析框架,运用CGSS 3年的数据进行实证分析。结果表明,个人社交指数对创业具有正向影响,个人风险倾向对创业的影响存在区域异质性。在农村地区,个人风险倾向对创业活动具有正向影响,即风险倾向越高,创业概率越大;而在城镇,个人风险倾向对创业的影响为负。在制度环境层面,政府干预和市场成熟度对创业具有负向影响,产权保护水平与创业之间存在“倒U型”关系,制度环境对社交指数与创业之间的关系具有调节作用,较高政府干预力度和较低市场成熟度使社交指数与创业负相关,而产权保护水平的调节作用则较弱;制度环境对风险倾向的调节作用较弱。     

Timing decisions of new product preannouncement and launch with competition

We develop a game-theoretic model to study the timing of new product preannouncement and launch under competition. We derive firms’ optimal timing choices and conducted a numerical analysis to evaluate the role of various factors. Our analytical and numerical results showed that anticipated competitor’s timing choices are the most significant factors. A firm should not preannounce early unless the preannouncement is effective in creating pent-up demands. However, the preannouncement and launch should be rushed if the quality or profit margin of the new product is high, and postponed if the market share of the existing product is high. The market leader should preannounce earlier in a simultaneous game than in a sequential game, but the opposite for the market follower. Data collected from the microprocessor industry validated our model.     

城市产业发展战略的三大课题

城市发展战略是城市管理导引的主导性环节。城市产业发展战略是城市发展战略的核心内容。在当前形势下,我国城市产业发展战略面临以下三大课题:面对“入世”对我国提出的挑战和机遇,城市产业应提出“应对战略”;面对知识经济的到来和我国与发达国家存在的差距,城市产业应提出“追赶战略”;面对我国城市产业发展自身长期存在的不协调和不适应问题,城市产业应提出“调整战略”。     

The customer consequences of returns in online retailing: An empirical analysis

Pressure continues to build on the operations management function to facilitate system and firm level benefits. In the online marketplace, one area of growing interest is that of product returns. Though commonly viewed as a cost center from an operations perspective, operations’ actions have the potential to strongly influence future customer buying behavior in several ways. Using an archival database of actual purchase and returns history provided by a moderately sized online retailer, this study examines the relationship between a customer's experience of product returns, and subsequent shopping behavior. Employing transaction cost, consumer risk, and procedural justice theories, we demonstrate that the returns management process, rather than being regarded as an afterthought to the production and deployment of goods, can significantly and positively influence repurchase behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that certain customers should be considered for prioritization in the returns process. We suggest ways through which operations managers can take care in discharging their responsibilities in this area – to make returns processing more than simply a “necessary cost of doing business” rather, using it to their advantage in engendering repeat and increased purchase behavior.     

Adverse selection as an explanation of credit rationing and different lender types

An adverse selection model is utilized to demonstrate that informational asymmetry may make it wealth optimal for the financial intermediary (FI) to credit ration and to rationalize the existence of different lenders in the credit market. The crucial assumption is that borrowers differ in their tolerance for a lender-imposed default penalty, the severity of which also varies with the lender. The credit rationing portion proves that the FI will: 1) be forced by a binding regulatory constraint to overinvest in capital; 2) ration its worst risk class borrowers; 3) establish its optimal loan interest rate on the basis of the average quality of its loans and the interest rate elasticity of the borrower demand in its best risk category; and 4) decrease the total loan volume and increase the loan interest rate due to an increase in the capital requirement, but the effect on the default risk quality of its loan portfolio is ambiguous. The existence result is that if a lender has a high default penalty, he can charge a lower rate and attract only “good” borrowers, i.e., heterogeneous lender types encourage the screening of borrowers and vice versa.     

Sibling gender and wage differences

Family influences on economic performance are investigated. In particular, sibship sex composition is related to hourly wages using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. The wages of men are increasing in the proportion of siblings who are brothers, but the wages of women are insensitive to sibling gender. Nonwage outcomes are generally unaffected. Contrasts by age structure and demographic group are also presented. The analysis addresses econometric challenges like the endogeneity of fertility and selection into the workforce. In addition, mechanisms such as labour market interactions, human capital investment and role model effects are documented. A questionnaire on job search indicates a same-gender bias in the use of brothers and sisters in obtaining employment. Developmental and psychological assessments suggest that brothers may be associated with worse childhood home environments and more traditional family attitudes among women. The findings are policy relevant and contribute to an understanding of gender differences and earnings inequality.     

Economic evaluation of human urinary kallindinogenase for patients with acute ischemic stroke in China

Objectives: In China, both human urinary kallindinogenase (HUK) and 3-n-butylphthalide (NBP) are recommended for clinical use to improve cerebral blood circulation during an acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The objective was to evaluate the economic value of HUK vs NBP for patients with AIS from a Chinese payer’s perspective.

Methods: An economic evaluation based on data of patients who have been treated with either HUK (n?=?488) or NBP (n?=?885) from a prospective, phase IV, multi-center, clinical registry study (Chinese Acute Ischemic Stroke Treatment Outcome Registry, CASTOR) was conducted to analyze the cost and effectiveness of HUK vs NBP for AIS in China. Before the analysis, the patients were matched using propensity score. Both a cost-minimization analysis and a cost-effectiveness analysis were conducted to compare the matched pairs. A bootstrapping exercise was conducted for the matched arms to demonstrate the probability of one intervention being cost-effective over another for a given willingness-to-pay for an extra quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

Results: After propensity score matching, 463 pairs were matched. The overall medical cost in the HUK arm is USD 2,701.20, while the NBP arm is USD 3,436.83, indicating HUK is preferred with cost-minimization analysis. Although the QALY gained in the HUK arm (0.77176) compared with the NBP arm (0.76831) is statistically insignificant (p?=?.4862), the cost-effectiveness analysis as exploratory analysis found that, compared with NBP, HUK is a cost-saving strategy with the lower costs of USD 735.63 and greater QALYs gained of 0.00345. Among the 5,000 bootstrapping replications, 100% indicates that HUK is cost-effective compared with NBP under a 1-time-GDP threshold; and 97.12% indicates the same under a 3-time-GDP threshold.

Conclusion: This economic evaluation study indicates that administrating HUK is a cost-saving therapy compared with NBP for managing blood flow during AIS in the Chinese setting.     

低碳时代餐饮企业实施绿色管理与清洁生产研究

文章结合餐饮企业生产流程及排污特点,按照清洁生产原理,从提高资源利用率和减少环境污染出发,提出餐饮企业应强化绿色管理理念,实施全过程、全方位、全员参与的绿色管理,对餐饮企业实施清洁生产在生产设备、资源能源利用、环境管理方面提出技术要求。     

Fiscal Decentralization and Poverty Alleviation in a Transitional Economy: The Case of Viet Nam

Intergovernmental fiscal arrangements may play an important role in ameliorating poverty in many countries. Successful poverty alleviation generally requires both ‘capacity improving’ and ‘safety net’ policies, and both types of policies may, to some extent, be implemented through, or affected by, intergovernmental transfers. From this perspective, we analyse the efficacy of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements in poverty alleviation in a transitional economy, Viet Nam. We argue that both general and specific transfers are needed for this purpose: the former to enable all provinces to provide a given basket of public services at a given tax-price by offsetting their revenue and cost disabilities and the latter to ensure that minimum levels of those public services provided by lower levels of government are targeted to the poor throughout the country.