An Expert System Solution to Mortgage Arrears Problems

This article draws on research into the current level of provision of arrears and debt counselling in building societies, banks and finance houses and concludes that, whilst interest in a consistent and systematic approach to arrears counselling is very positive, progress towards any practical application of Information Technology in the arrears counselling process is slow. In response to this shortfall the article presents a novel approach to arrears counselling through an expert system named Personal Insolvency Strategy Counselling Expert System (PISCES). Work on PISCES at Loughborough University Banking Centre has shown that much of the expertise and knowledge of the experienced arrears counsellor can be captured within a computer-based system. An evaluation of PISCES by interested parties has confirmed that the expert system approach to arrears counselling is valid and that the PISCES system, in particular shows promise.     

Determining the antecedents for a strategy of corporate social responsibility by small- and medium-sized enterprises in the UK fashion apparel industry

This paper seeks to increase the understanding of the antecedents of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in small UK fashion garment manufacturing firms. A review of CSR practice is used to inform the theoretical development of the wider aspects of small business competitive advantage. A causal map of the antecedents of CSR in the context of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is presented which will help guide the selection of the constructs to be used for measuring the existence of CSR in SMEs in the UK fashion garment manufacturing industry. Future research will gain a greater understanding of this phenomenon through evaluating the obstacles and drivers for the implementation of a CSR strategy in small garment manufacturing businesses.     

Predicting the equity premium with dividend ratios: Reconciling the evidence

This paper evaluates the ability of dividend ratios to predict the equity premium. We conduct an in and out-of-sample comparative study and apply the Goyal and Welch (2003) graphical method to equity premia derived from the UK FTSE All-Share and the S&P 500 indices. Preliminary in-sample univariate regressions reveal that in both markets the equity premium contains an element of predictability. However, the considered out-of-sample models outperform the historical moving average only in the UK context. This is confirmed by the graphical diagnostic which further indicates that dividend ratios are useful predictors of UK excess returns. Our paper provides a possible explanation of why dividend ratios might be more informative in the UK market by linking these findings to the disappearing dividend phenomenon. Finally, Campbell and Shiller (1988) identities are employed to account for the time-varying properties of the dividend ratio and dividend growth processes. It is shown that by instrumenting the models with the identities, forecasting ability can be further improved.     

Do Minority-owned Banks Pay Higher Interest Rates on CDs?

This paper analyzes whether minority-owned banks pass along an advantage in access to governmental deposits to the communities they serve in the form of higher interest rates paid on certificates of deposit (CDs). Although academic evidence has not confirmed increased profitability or efficiency of these banks since the creation of the Minority Bank Deposit Program, their unique positioning within communities may allow them to meet the needs of a clientele with lower and less stable income, and with higher than average expected future deposit withdrawals. Data from the regulatory reports provided by minority and non-minority owned banks are analyzed using five distinct time horizons for CDs. The results suggest that Black-owned banks consistently pay higher interest rates on CDs, with a lower premium for longer-term CDs, and used the premium to cushion the ill effects of the recent financial collapse on their customers. Asian-owned banks provide a smaller premium for short-term CDs, while the remaining category of minority-owned banks, including Native American, Hispanic, and Women-owned banks, also paid a premium on CDs, but shrank that premium substantially following the financial collapse. Note also that minority-owned banks may use this funding advantage in a variety of other ways to serve their respecitive communities.     

Preferential trade agreements and the structure of international trade

In this paper we examine the impact of membership in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade between PTA members. Rather than considering the impact of PTA membership on the volume of trade we consider the impact of membership on the structure of trade. For a large sample of countries over the period 1962–2000 we find that membership in a PTA is associated with an increase in the extent of intra-industry trade. Our results indicate that this is especially the case for PTAs formed between richer countries, with the effects of PTAs between poorer countries found to be smaller.     

Management disclosure bias and audit services

This paper considers the level of bias observed in management disclosures of earnings forecasts and historic earnings data in Australian prospectuses. Management forecasts and naïve forecasts derived from managements’ normalised historic data are analysed. A key focus is upon the possible association between such forecast bias and differential audit services performed upon the data. Audit firm size and level of engagement are modelled against bias. The full sample revealed no overestimation bias for any of the forecast models, but underestimation was observed for elements of the management and random walk naïve forecasts. Cross-sectionally, a significant association was observed between forecast bias and audit firm size across all three forecast models. Specifically, the audit firm size variable (Non Big-5/Big-5) was inversely associated with the extent to which forecasted and normalised historic earnings data were upwardly biased. On the other hand, the level of engagement was not a significant discriminator for forecast bias. These outcomes are contrasted against others reported elsewhere in the literature and suggest a risk in generalising across contexts. The findings imply a level of ‘disclosure management’ regarding company IPO forecasts and normalised historic accounting data, with forecast overestimation and error size more extreme when the monitoring expertise and/or reputation of auditors is lower (JEL D80, G14, M41, N27).