Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies

A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate whether the preferred course of action is avoiding the activity without further study, engaging in the activity without further study, or conducting a test or research programme to obtain additional information and following the result. When these thresholds are low, precautionary action is more likely to be warranted. When there are multiple stakeholders, differences in their perceptions of the benefit and cost of avoidance and differences in their perceptions of the accuracy of the additional information provided by the test or research programme combine to create differences in their decision thresholds. Thus, the model allows for the rational expression of differences among parties in a way that highlights disagreements and possible paths to conflict resolution. The model is illustrated with an application to phytosanitary standards in international trade and examined in terms of recent empirical research on lay perceptions of risks, benefits, and trust. Further research is suggested to improve the elicitation of model components, as a way of fostering the legitimate application of risk-based decision analysis in precautionary policy making.     

Characteristics and Behaviour of Tourists Who Use Trails

This article documents the popularity of five types of trail-based recreation relative to other forms of recreation that tourists frequently participate in on their trips; identifies these trail users’ cross-participation in other outdoor recreation activities; and profiles the travel behaviour, media habits, trip planning behaviour, and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of day hikers and snowmobilers as two particularly large trail user segments. Findings are based on data from a household telephone survey conducted in Michigan, surrounding states, and Ontario, Canada. Hiking/backpacking was found to be the most popular natural resource-based recreation activity that respondents participated in on pleasure trips taken during the past 12 months; other forms of trail-based recreation were significantly less popular; mountain bikers participated in nature-oriented recreation activities in Michigan at levels that were similar to those of hikers/backpackers; and snowmobiling appeared to be the focus of most pleasure trips on which this activity occurred, in contrast to day hiking, which appeared to be more of an ancillary pursuit.     

INFERENCE FOR DOMINANCE RELATIONS

The use of partial orders has been popularized as a way to conduct social evaluations using only minimal normative assumptions. Generically, this process involves comparing continuously indexed curves that are uniquely determined by the cumulative distributions of the individual attributes under study. In the literature on income poverty and inequality, for example, pairwise comparisons of entire income distributions and their respective Lorenz curves are routinely performed in order to characterize rankings of poverty, inequality, and welfare. In this article, we focus on the inferential problem that arises whenever such comparisons are made in the absence of census data. Statistical inference in these situations is particularly complex due to the fact that comparing curves invariably gives rise to four possibilities: the true population curves are equal, the first curve lies below the second, the second lies below the first, or the curves cross. To address this four‐decision problem, we introduce a two‐stage test that has good power and fine control over misclassification error rates.     

Public Reactions to Policy Recommendations from the Banff-Bow Valley Study: A Longitudinal Assessment

The Banff-Bow Valley Study (BBVS), a two-year, $2.4 million project designed to formulate guidelines for the future of a major National Parks region in the Canadian Rockies, provided a comprehensive set of over 500 policy recommendations for enhancing ecological integrity and managing sustainable tourism in this popular, environmentally sensitive destination (Page et al., 1996). For these recommendations to be implemented effectively, support from a broad range of stakeholders in the Canadian citizenry is essential. Surprisingly, the BBVS itself did not explore public attitudes towards its final recommendations. In an attempt to overcome this shortcoming, the present authors undertook to assess the degree of public support for the major recomm endations of the BBVS. The total assessment consisted of a two-phase longitudinal study. Phase 1 was conducted in 1996, following the release of the BBVS recommendations. Phase 2, which sought to verify the stability of the initial results, was conducted in 2000. W hile some shifts in public support were identified, the most significant findings of Phase 1 were verified. The total study identified those recommendations most likely to be accepted or rejected by Canadians.     

Digitization of heritage collections as indicator of innovation

Heritage institutions house cultural and research content, which is the key source to stimulate soft innovation. Despite the potential, heritage collections are mostly inaccessible via digital mediums. We analyse the macro, meso and micro conditions of heritage organizations across Europe to identify the key determinants that foster soft innovation as reflected by the share of collection digitization and online publication. We find that organizations respond positively to an environment of high consumer digital literacy and sustainable resource allocation that enables slack, skilled staff and long-term strategic planning. Innovation is thus, in fact, enhanced by digital literacy from both producers and consumers.     

Building the BoP Producer Ecosystem: The Evolving Engagement of Fabindia with Indian Handloom Artisans

Recent research on the base of the pyramid (BoP) has called on firms to initiate market‐driven interventions directed at the BoP population with the objective of identifying and pursuing mutually profitable means of attaining meaningful poverty alleviation outcomes. In response, firms as well as scholars have engaged at length with the creation of new products and services for the BoP consumer but paid far less attention to the BoP producer—a member of the BoP population who creates value by producing goods and services for sale in nonlocal markets. Additionally, extant studies have largely focused on snapshot views of BoP interventions by firms, thereby limiting our understanding of the emergence of meaningful poverty‐alleviating outcomes over time from these interventions. This paper seeks to redirect attention toward the dynamic of the long‐term engagement between the firm and the BoP producer. Using rich qualitative data from Fabindia—an Indian handloom retailer—this paper examines how the engagement between Fabindia and communities of handloom artisans in India has persisted over a period of five decades. We found that, even as it encountered changes in the external environment and pursued newer organizational goals, Fabindia repeatedly renewed its engagement with handloom artisans and facilitated progression in poverty‐alleviation outcomes. Building on the insights from the case study, this paper presents a process model that highlights the role of innovative management practices in sustaining engagements between firms and BoP producers over time. Additionally, this paper proposes the concept of the “bridging enterprise”—a business enterprise that originates at the intersection of specific BoP communities and the corresponding nonlocal markets—as an interpreter and innovator reconciling the interests of stakeholders across the pyramid.     

Approach and Avoidance Motivation: Investigating Hedonic Consumption in a Retail Setting

Retail shopping studies often conclude that desirable shopper behaviors, such as spending more money, indicate underlying approach motivation, while undesirable behaviors, such as leaving the store, indicate underlying avoidance motivation. However, hedonic consumption would seem to provide an opportunity not only for approaching fun and excitement but also for avoiding problems and stress in everyday life. This study investigates approach and avoidance motivations in a hedonic consumption context. Results show that both approach and avoidance motivation lead to heightened hedonic motivations for shopping and to more positive shopper evaluations. Additional investigation reveals several differences by gender and across four shopping contexts. Several theoretical and managerial implications are offered.