Evolutionary social science and universal Darwinism

How should social scientists, inclined to an evolutionary theory of aspects of human culture like science, technology, business organization and practice, react to proposals that they embrace a “Universal Darwinism”? The most prominent variety of Universal Darwinism argues for close counterparts between the variables and mechanisms of cultural evolution and biological evolution, for example proposing the concept of “memes” as units of culture. Other Universal Darwinists propose, more flexibly, that human culture and biological species both change over time through a process that involves variation and selection, but that the details of the processes may be very different. This essay argues that the narrower form of Universal Darwinism should not be acceptable to social scientists. The differences in the details of cultural evolution and biological evolution are considerable. On the other hand, if Universal Darwinism provides a roomy intellectual tent welcoming scholars studying a variety of topics, with the unifying element being a dynamic theory involving variation and selection, but with the key variables and mechanisms being recognized as perhaps differing greatly between biology and human culture, we can be happy in that camp. Evolutionary Social Science and Universal Darwinism.     

Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regressions

We propose the parametric Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression (DSUR) estimator for simultaneous estimation of multiple cointegrating regressions. DSUR is efficient when the equilibrium errors are correlated across equations and is applicable for panel cointegration estimation in environments where the cross section is small relative to the available time series. We study the asymptotic and small sample properties of the DSUR estimator for both heterogeneous and homogeneous cointegrating vectors. We then apply the method to analyse two long-standing problems in international economics. Our first application revisits the estimation of long-run correlations between national investment and national saving. Our second application revisits the question of whether the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate.     

Statistical manipulation of delphi statements: Its success and effects on convergence and stability

This paper discusses the results of an experiment to determine if manipulation of statistical feedback of Delphi statements can significantly shift the responses of a fact-probing and/or a value-probing Delphi. This shift is viewed in terms of the degree of success in achieving a desired value. Also examined was whether fact- probing or value-probing Delphis were more susceptible to statistical manipulation. The effects of the statistical manipulation on the convergence and stability of the Delphis were also investigated.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Demand for Imports in Three CARICOM Member Countries: An Application of the Bounds Test for Cointegration

This paper provides fresh estimates of income and price elasticities of import demand in Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago using a bounds test for cointegration. In addition, the paper also provides estimates of the consumption, investment, and exports elasticities of import demand. These latter elasticities were all found to be positive and statistically significant with values ranging from 0.16 to 0.55 in the long-run.     

The single family home in the investment portfolio

This article uses recent measures of the risk and return to investment in housing to estimate the effects of including a single family home in the investor portolio. We estimate the expected return and standard deviation of that return, as well as its correlation with other major investment classes.     

BP: developing excellence in the global enterprise

World-class supply management organizations like Honda of America, John Deere, Chrysler, Hewlett Packard, and Motorola all understand the power of continuous improvement in the supply base. The best supplier management and development programs help suppliers--on a long-term basis--develop their own strength and expertise in suggestion systems, new product development, and high quality production results.     

Building the dream team: don't make it a nightmare

This article covers the often overlooked area of team management concepts through a discussion of what many companies have done to implement these new concepts successfully. It describes the basics of how to and also explains why people resist the process of implementation. The main topics are (1) team formation, (2) pitfalls to avoid, and (3) team measurement.