Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth in Guyana: An Empirical Assessment using DOLS and Error Correcting Methodologies

This paper uses econometric techniques in the area of time series analysis to examine the relationship between economic performance and trade liberalization in Guyana. For this study, the base model underlying the analysis is a traditional per worker production function that has been augmented to include trade liberalization and other factors like human capital and exports. The results from this study suggest that when viewed from the long-run and short-run perspective trade liberalization has enhanced the economic performance of Guyana. Indeed, in this study both measures of trade liberalization - the average import tariff rate and the dummy variable representing the change in quota and import licensing measures, among other things - were statistically significant and correctly signed.     

The long-horizon returns behaviour of the Portuguese stock market1

In the last few years several research studies have challenged the traditional weak-form efficiency tests of the stock market. These studies suggested an alternative to the random walk model, containing temporary and permanent components. If stocks follow such a model then the traditional tests, using returns computed for short intervals would be unable to detect them. To investigate the evidence for such models in the Portuguese stock market ten stock indexes were created. This is a pioneer study of the Portuguese stock market, and uses nominal, real and excess returns, computed for longer horizons. Three methodologies were used: variance ratios, ordinary least squares regressions and weighted least squares regressions. The statistical significance of the results was studied using traditional parametric tests as well as non-parametric tests. The evidence is mixed, as the presence of tendencies towards mean aversion and mean reversion were detected. Results also show that the evidence is very sensitive to the methodology used and the signifcance tests performed. These results, however, do not necessarily reject the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis.     

A Behavioral Model of Unemployment,Sociotropic Concerns,and the Political Economy of Trade Policy

We present a behavioral model in which agents are concerned about the scarring effects from unemployment for themselves and others and explore the manner in which unemployment matters for trade policy. We derive three policy implications: the government has an incentive to increase employment in sectors characterized by “good jobs,” where the good job/bad job characterization depends on an industry's job creation and destruction rates; the government has an incentive to pursue this policy in a gradual fashion by channeling new and unemployed workers into the appropriate sector; and opposition to trade liberalization can be reduced by welfare state policies.     

A vertical social accounting matrix of the U.S. economy

Abstract

This article presents an adaptation of the square social accounting matrix used in economic planning and programming to the rectangular or vertical transaction matrix used in post Keynesian monetary economics. The objective is to obtain a simple and intuitive framework to organize macroeconomic data in terms of the main institutional sectors of the economy, showing how production, distribution, demand, and financing are inter-related. The article presents the social accounting matrix of the U.S. economy as an example and use it to analyze the trends in net lending and household net income since 1960.     

Living conditions of mine workers from eight mines in South Africa

Poor living conditions are a consequence of the history of the South African mining industry (SAMI), despite legislation having been implemented to attempt to address this challenge. This paper describes the living conditions of mine workers from eight mines in South Africa in 2014, and assesses changes made over the previous decade. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected at three platinum, two gold, one coal, one diamond, and one manganese mine in 53 interviews with mine management, 11 interviews with labour representatives, 14 focus groups with mine workers, and 875 questionnaires completed by mine workers. The use of single-sex hostels and hostel room occupancy rates has reduced, while the use of living-out allowances (LOAs) has increased. Problems included the high proportions of informal accommodation; a lack of access to water, sanitation, and electricity; and poor roads. While improvements to the living conditions in the SAMI are evident, challenges still remain.     

Sawmill production in the interior of British Columbia: A stochastic ray frontier approach

We examined the productive efficiency of the interior sawmilling industry in British Columbia using stochastic frontier analysis. Prior sawmilling studies using this method have neglected the multi-output nature of sawmills. To accommodate both lumber and chips as outputs, we used a ray production function and adopted it into the stochastic frontier framework. A translog functional form was specified with three inputs (i.e., capital, labour, and roundwood) and applied to five years (2003–2007) of mill specific production data. The ray production function is flexible allowing factor productivity to vary with the output mix. Results indicated the presence of both economies of scale and technical inefficiency. This suggested that a long-run equilibrium had not yet been reached during this time and might explain recent restructuring occurring in this region.     

Immigration and labour-market outcomes in the United States: a political-economy puzzle

Based on a larger survey of the literature (Gaston and Nelson,2000), this paper argues: (i) that econometric research uniformlyfinds very small labour-market effects of immigration; (ii)that labour and trade economists have differed in their interpretationof this finding; and (iii) that this difference is driven exclusivelyby different dimensionality assumptions (with labour economistspreferring a 1-sector x m-factor model and trade economistsan n-sector x m-factor model). It is then argued that the tradeeconomists' model, along with its presumption of factor-priceinsensitivity to immigration is the more useful as a presumptiongenerator. The paper concludes with a discussion of the political-economyimplications of these results.     

A multinomial logit approach to exchange rate policy classification with an application to growth

We model a country's de jure exchange rate policy as the choice from a multinomial logit response conditioned on the volatility of its bilateral exchange rate, the volatility of its international reserves, and the volatility of its effective exchange rate. The category with the highest predictive probability implied by the logit regressions serves as our de facto exchange rate policy. An empirical investigation into the relationship between the de facto classifications and GDP growth finds that growth is higher under stable currency-value policies. For non-industrialized countries, a more nuanced characterization of exchange rate policy finds that those who exhibit ‘fear of floating’ experience significantly higher growth.     

How Advergame Content Influences Explicit and Implicit Brand Attitudes: When Violence Spills Over

Well-liked advergames foster favorable brand attitudes. Research has been conducted on games where the content offers positive associations (e.g., racing: speed) that may transfer to the brand. Yet games may offer negative associations (e.g., combat: violence). Using the affect transfer and associative-propositional evaluation models, we test the influence of game content (combat, racing) on implicit and explicit brand attitudes. Results of an experiment showed that negative content resulted in less favorable attitudes toward the game and the implicit (unfamiliar) brand attitudes. The relationship between content and explicit attitude toward the brand was mediated by attitude toward the game.