越南企业准备好了吗？

公众舆论普遍认为“入世”将给越南带来更多外国直接投资，但是，越南当地的企业家该如何面对外来挑战？[编者按]     

Political Economy of Industrial Development in Vietnam’s Telecommunications Industry: A Rent Management Analysis

This article contributes to the current debate in economics on the uses and benefits of rents and rent seeking. On the one hand, public choice and neoliberal scholars highlight the redistributive and damaging aspects of rent seeking, thus rendering the policy suggestion to completely eradicate rents and rent seeking in an economy. On the other hand, institutional and development economists point out the inherent theoretical inconsistencies shown in the earlier models, and suggest that certain types of rent and rent seeking could be growth-enhancing. Using the Developmental Rent Management Analysis, this article assesses the industrial development of the telecommunications industry in Vietnam using two case studies. Qualitative research points out a number of rent management factors contributing both to the industry’s failure before the early 2000s and its subsequent success thereafter. The successful development of the telecommunications industry was fundamentally based on (i) favorable political support for rent creation, (ii) an effective structure of rent allocation and implementation, and (iii) credible incentives and pressures that encouraged local firms’ industrial upgrading. The Vietnamese experience suggests that rents can be developmental, conceivably side-by-side with rent seeking, cronyism and corruption.     

Tariff escalation and invasive species damages

We investigate the interface between trade and damages from invasive species (IS), focusing on escalation in tariffs between raw-input and processed-good markets, and its implication for IS-based damages. The current tariff escalation in processed agro-forestry products motivates our analysis. Tariff escalation exacerbates the likelihood of IS introduction by biasing trade flows towards increased trade of primary commodity flows and against processed-product trade. We show that a reduction of tariff escalation, by lowering the tariff on processed goods increases allocative efficiency and reduces IS-based damages, a win-win situation. We also identify policy menus for trade reforms involving tariffs on both raw input and processed goods leading to win-win situations.     

Does Public Country-by-Country Reporting Deter Tax Avoidance and Income Shifting? Evidence from the European Banking Industry*

In this study, we examine the effect of increased tax transparency on the tax planning behavior of European banks. In 2014, the European Union introduced public country-by-country reporting requirements to the banking industry. Treating this new requirement as an exogenous shock, we find limited evidence consistent with a decline in income shifting by the banks' financial affiliates in the post-adoption period (starting from 2015). We do not, however, find robust evidence of a significant change in the consolidated book effective tax rates among the affected banks. Our findings suggest that increased transparency from public country-by-country reporting can deter tax-motivated income shifting but that it did not appear to materially influence the banks' overall tax avoidance. Our findings have policy implications for the ongoing debate between the European Parliament, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and accounting standard-setting bodies on whether to require multinationals to publish country-by-country reports.     

Growth, volatility and stabilisation policy in a DSGE model with nominal rigidities and learning-by-doing

The paper aims to analyse the question of how cyclical fluctuations might affect long run growth. The analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for an imperfectly competitive economy with fully optimising agents. The model is characterized with nominal rigidities, an endogenous technology, and multiple shocks. It predicts either a negative or positive relationship between short run volatility and long run growth depending on the source of shocks and the reaction of the central bank. The model also shows that, even when the negative relationship exits the policy that is designed to stabilise short run volatility may either increase or decrease growth depending on the source of shocks.     

Secrecy of Bank of Japan’s Yen intervention: Evidence of efficacy from intra-daily data

This paper examines the intraday effectiveness of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s foreign exchange interventions over the period May 13, 1991–March 16, 2004. The existing literature has generally failed to provide a comprehensive study on the effects of the BOJ’s interventions, and particularly, the efficacy of public and secret operations. By dividing a 24-h trading day into three horizons, we show that the intraday evidence on the effects of official interventions documented in prior studies primarily came from publicly known interventions. In the case of secret interventions, although there were no clear impacts on the first moment of exchange rate returns, we found significant second moment responses. Specifically, covert operations were able to reduce the Yen/USD return volatility during both Tokyo and subsequent overnight market hours. Furthermore, our extended model on secret interventions reveals that when the BOJ completely concealed its transactions, undetected interventions were shown to be most effective in both reversing undesired trends and reducing excess return volatilities. On the other hand, those interventions that were rumoured were not as effective. Finally, the interventions conducted during the periods of ‘oral interventions’ were in general more effective in moving the exchange rate in the desired direction.     

Sending Vietnamese Rice Farmers Back to School: Further Evidence on the Impacts of Farmer Field Schools

This study evaluates the impact of farmer field schools (FFS) on knowledge, insecticide use, and yield using a nonconsecutive, two‐year panel data that allows one to control for nonrandom selection. Regression analysis using a difference‐in‐difference approach indicates FFS training did not result in statistically significant impacts on insecticide use and yield over the period of time examined. However, there is some evidence that FFS had an “initial” knowledge impact, but it was not sustained over time. Retraining FFS graduates may be an attractive option to help maintain knowledge and improve performance over time, but we do not find empirical evidence on the effectiveness of this strategy based on a small sample of retrained farmers. La présente étude examine l’impact du programme Champ‐École‐Paysan (CEP) (Farmer Field Schools – FFS) sur l’acquisition des connaissances, l’utilisation d’insecticides et le rendement, à l’aide de données de panel non consécutives recueillies sur une période de deux ans et permettant de maîtriser la sélection non aléatoire. Une analyse de régression utilisant la méthode de différence de différences a révélé que la formation offerte dans le cadre du programme CEP n’a pas eu d’impact statistiquement significatif sur l’utilisation d’insecticides ni sur le rendement au cours de la période visée par l’étude. Toutefois, il semble que le programme CEP a eu un impact sur l’acquisition des connaissances au début, mais que cet impact n’a pas été soutenu au fil du temps. Le recyclage des participants au programme CEP peut constituer une option intéressante pour le maintien des connaissances et l’amélioration du rendement au fil du temps. Par contre, l’étude d’un petit échantillon de producteurs recyclés n’a pas fourni de preuve empirique permettant de croire à l’efficacité de cette stratégie.     

Corporate governance and risk management: The role of risk management and compensation committees

This paper examines the role of compensation and risk committees in managing and monitoring the risk behaviour of Australian financial firms in the period leading up to the global financial crisis (2006–2008). This empirical study of 711 observations of financial sector firms demonstrates how the coordination of risk management and compensation committees reduces information asymmetry. The study shows that the composition of the risk and compensation committees is positively associated with risk, which, in turn, is associated with firm performance. More importantly, information asymmetry is reduced when a director is a member of both the risk and compensation committees which moderate the negative association between risk and firm performance for firms with high risk.     

The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns: New Evidence from an Emerging Market

Over 300 factors have been found to explain the cross-section of expected stock returns. Empirical studies also show that findings from multifactor asset-pricing models have not been consistent in an emerging market. Using DuPont analysis and a residual income valuation model for 284 nonfinancial companies on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange during the period 2008–2014, findings suggest that the return on equity and its change are informative for stock returns in Vietnam. In addition, the level of capital turnover, financial cost ratio (FCR), and changes in capital and in the FCR contain incremental explanatory power for stock returns.