Has Australia's floating exchange rate regime been optimal?

This paper develops a straightforward theoretical framework for evaluating exchange rate regime choice for small economies. It proposes that a floating exchange rate minimises national income and employment variation when real macroeconomic shocks predominate, whereas a pegged exchange rate achieves this goal should monetary shocks predominate. It then shows econometrically that, in the case of Australia, a floating exchange rate best suited the economy for the period 1985 to 2010, because real shocks were more significant than monetary shocks. Moreover, consistent with the theory, further results showing that a stronger (weaker) exchange rate correlated with positive (negative) deviations from trend GDP affirm that a floating exchange rate regime was optimal for Australia over this time.     

VOTING AND SOCIAL PRESSURE UNDER IMPERFECT INFORMATION

We develop a model in which costly voting in a large, two‐party election is a sequentially rational choice of strategic, self‐interested players who can reward fellow voters by forming stronger ties in a network formation coordination game. The predictions match a variety of stylized facts, including explaining why an individual's voting behavior may depend on what she knows about her friends' actions. Players have imperfect information about others' voting behavior, and we find that some degree of privacy may be necessary for voting in equilibrium, enabling hypocritical but useful social pressure. Our framework applies to any costly prosocial behavior.     

Gender wage gaps and economic crisis in Greece

ABSTRACT

We examine gender wage gap (GWG) in Greece for 2013, by using a survey data set. Our findings show first, that the unadjusted GWG is 15.3%, while European Commission reports a value of 15%. Secondly, we derive the ‘adjusted’ GWG, using the Oaxaca and Ransom (OR) and the Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (JMP) methods to be ranging from 10% to 13.6%. Thirdly, looking into the behaviour of the full population, we find a decreasing trend for the discrimination effects, an increasing trend for the residuals effects and a ‘random’ endowments effects while moving to higher deciles. These three effects are associated to the economic crisis 2008–2015. Fourthly, our findings do not show evidence of either a ‘glass ceiling’ effect or a ‘sticky floor’ effect. Finally, that there is strong evidence that investing in higher education reduces the wage discrimination between sexes.     

Disaggregated Earnings and Stock Prices: Evidence from International Listed Shipping Firms

The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of earnings from vessel sales on stock prices for international listed shipping firms. The empirical findings show that operating income from vessel sales has a higher power in explaining stock prices than operating earnings only as a sole piece of accounting information for future profitability, investment opportunities, and firm valuation. The testing period is from 2000 to 2009. The methodologies are those of panel cointegration and panel causality tests. The implications are very crucial, since managers may manipulate annual earnings by such non-operating activities.     

Holidays and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of Indian states

The number of holidays differs significantly across Indian states. Moreover, some of the governing political parties have been accused of using holidays as a tool either to mollify disgruntled workers or to woo voters before the state elections. In this context, this paper explores the relationship between the number of holidays and economic growth across 24 Indian states, spanning the period 2008–2016, by employing a panel model analysis. The paper presents evidence suggesting that holidays seem to affect growth negatively in the rich states but are inconsequential for the growth performance of the poor states.     

Hypothetical Bias Reconsidered: Payment and Provision Uncertainties in a Threshold Provision Mechanism

We extend research on the consequentiality of stated preference choices to a threshold provision mechanism for public goods. We develop a simple theoretical model of option price to analyze how option price varies with payment and provision uncertainty. We explore whether threshold provision contributions are similarly influenced by payment and provision uncertainty using an induced value contribution experiment. Results suggest that: (1) the probability of payment has a negative effect on contributions; (2) the probability of provision has a positive effect on contributions. We offer subjective beliefs regarding payment and provision as a plausible systematic explanation for hypothetical bias.     

Trade openness and government size of small developing countries

This paper examines the causal effect that trade openness has on government size in small developing countries (SDCs). We use the construction of the trade cost variables based on Baltic Dry Index in primary goods as instruments of trade openness to address the endogeneity issue. We find that the increase in trade openness leads to an increase in government size: a 1 percent expansion in trade openness (trade GDP ratio) raises government consumption over GDP ratio by approximately 0.1–0.2 percentage points on average. Its quantitative significance emphasizes the importance of rethinking the costs and benefits of trade openness for SDCs.     

Debreu’s social equilibrium theorem with asymmetric information and a continuum of agents

We provide several different generalizations of Debreu’s social equilibrium theorem by allowing for asymmetric information and a continuum of agents. The results not only extend the ones in Kim and Yannelis (J Econ Theory 77:330–353, 1977), Yannelis and Rustichini (Stud Econ Theory 2:23–48, 1991), but also new theorems are obtained which allow for a convexifying effect on aggregation (non-concavity assumption on the utility functions) and non-convex strategy sets (pure strategies). This is achieved by imposing the assumption of “many more agents than strategies” (Rustichini and Yannelis in Stud Econ Theory 1:249–265, 1991; Tourky and Yannelis in J Econ Theory 101:189–221, 2001; Podczeck in Econ Theory 22:699–725, 2003). To the memory of Gerard Debreu. A preliminary draft was presented in Paris, in April of 2005. I have benefited from the discussion, comments and questions of Erik Balder, Jean-Marc Bonnisseu, Bernard Cornet and Filipe Martins Da-Rocha and Conny Podczeck. A careful and knowledgeable referee made several useful comments and rescued me from a mishap.     

Chain indices of the cost-of-living and the path-dependence problem: An empirical solution

This paper proposes a new method for estimating true cost-of-living (Konüs) indices, for large numbers of commodities, using data only on prices, aggregate budget shares and aggregate expenditure. Conventional chain indices are path-dependent unless income elasticities are (implausibly) all equal to 1. The method allows this difficulty to be overcome. I show that to estimate a Konüs index, only income and not price elasticities are required. The method is applied to estimate a Konüs price index for 70 products covering nearly all the UK's Retail Prices Index over 1974–2004, using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. The choice of base year for utility has a significant effect on the index.