中国资本账户开放程度的测算

对我国资本账户开放程度的准确判断是相关理论研究和决策分析的基本前提。从名义和实际两个方面对中国的资本账户开放程度进行测度的结果表明:(1)当前我国的名义资本管制处于中等水平,而实际资本账户的开放水平要远高于名义资本账户开放水平;(2)在存在较大套利空间的情况下,即便存在较为严格的资本管制,资本管制的有效性也很难长期维持;(3)虽然资本管制程度的加强很难对实际的套利资本流动加以控制,但在资本管制措施逐渐放松以后,却很容易导致实际资本流动性的急剧提高,这一点,造成了我国当前资本管制政策的"两难"选择。     

Nonparametric Dynamic Production Analysis and the Theory of Cost

While the dynamic theory of production provides little insight towards identifying a specific functional form for the firm's technology, dynamic production analysis has been explored traditionally in a parametric framework. A nonparametric dynamic dual cost approach to production analysis is developed in this article. Recovering technological information from intertemporal cost minimizing behavior is possible without imposing a parametric functional form on the firm's technology. Nonparametric tests to analyze the structure of a dynamic technology are presented from a dynamic cost minimizing perspective. The empirical implementation of these tests is illustrated for a balanced panel data set of Pennsylvania dairy operators during the time period 1986–1992.     

Does resorting to online dispute resolution promote agreements? Experimental evidence

This paper presents an experiment performed to test the properties of an innovative bargaining mechanism (called automated negotiation) used to resolve disputes arising from Internet-based transactions. The main result shows that the settlement rule tends to chill bargaining as it creates incentives for individuals to misrepresent their true valuations, which implies that automated negotiation is not able to promote agreements. However, this perverse effect depends strongly on the conflict situation. When the threat that a disagreement occurs is more credible, the strategic effect is reduced since defendants are more interested in maximizing the efficiency of a settlement than their own expected profit. The implications of these results are then used to discuss the potential role of public regulation and reputation mechanisms in Cyberspace.     

浅谈如何提高当前消防监督执法水平

本文作者根据目前消防监督执法现状指出了当前消防监督执法过程中存在的问题,并对出现问题的原因进行了分析,最后提出了提高消防监督执法水平的几点建议。     

我国回收物流合理化的研究

通过建立家电回收物流流程模型,对整个回收物流流程的各个环节,逐一进行合理化分析,分别说明它们在我国家电回收物流合理化过程中应该采取的措施,并提出回收物流合理化流程中应该遵循的几项原则。     

The Informational Role of Product Trade‐Ins for Pricing Durable Goods

This research theorizes that sellers of durable goods can utilize inferences about the buyer's willingness to pay based not only on her decision to trade in the old good but also on its characteristics. We find empirical support for this theory using transaction data for new car purchases. The results support the notion that dealers infer a higher willingness to pay and charge higher prices to consumers who trade in a used vehicle than to those who do not. We also find that dealers charge even higher prices to those consumers who trade in used cars that are similar to the new one.     

Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle‐East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential

At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle‐East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US‐MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.     

How Do Investors Interpret Announcements of Earnings Delays?

Unlike in the case of delays of 10‐K or 10‐Q filings, the SEC does not require managers to disclose delays of earnings announcements to the public. Thus, for companies that are unable to report earnings by their expected date, managers face a decision: remain silent or announce the delay. Prior research has investigated all earnings delays, whether or not they are accompanied by announcements of the delay announcement, and found that the market reaction is slightly negative, on average, for companies that allow their expected earnings dates to pass without disclosing results. It's not clear, however, whether this negative reaction was due to the absence of news or to the information contained in the announcements of the earnings delays. The authors' recent study documents that earnings delay announcements are associated with an average one‐day abnormal stock return of a negative 6%. This statistically as well as economically significant reduction in value is consistent with anecdotal evidence in the popular business press as well as predictions of disclosure theories, in particular the explanation that concerns about legal liability and managerial reputation motivate managers to disclose bad news. The study also shows that almost all managers who announce earnings delays attempt to influence the market reaction by disclosing the underlying cause. Finally, the study shows that the market reaction to earnings delay announcements is positively related to future earnings changes, consistent with the role of these disclosures in providing a signal of deteriorating financial performance.     

国际生产与贸易格局的新变化

众所周知,二次大战以后,国际生产与贸易格局发生了重要变化:行业内贸易大量出现,"北北贸易"(发达国家之间的贸易)取代了传统的"南北贸易"(发达国家与发展中国家之间的产业间贸易),成为国际贸易的主要组成部分.为此,经济学家于20世纪70年代末提出了"规模经济"和"不完全竞争"的国际贸易新理论.