Cementing the case for collusion under the National Recovery Administration

Macroeconomists have long debated the aggregate effects of anti-competitive provisions under the “Codes of Fair Conduct” promulgated by the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA). Despite the emphasis on these provisions, there is only limited evidence documenting any actual effects at the micro-level. We use a combination of narrative evidence and a novel plant-level dataset from 1929, 1931, 1933, and 1935 to study the effects of the NIRA in the cement industry. We develop a test for collusion specific to this particular industry. We find strong evidence that before the NIRA, the costs of a plant's nearest neighbor had a positive effect on a plant's own price, suggesting competition. After the NIRA, this effect is completely eliminated, with no correlation between a plant's own price and its neighbor's cost.     

How to Measure and Draw Causal Inferences with Patent Scope

Abstract

This paper presents an easy-to-use measure of patent scope that is grounded both in patent law and in the practices of patent attorneys. We validate our measure by showing both that patent attorneys’ subjective assessments of scope agree with our estimates, and that the behavior of patenters is consistent with it. Using our validation exercise, we find that previous measures of patent scope (i.e., the number of patent classes, the number of citations made by future patents, and the number of claims in a patent) are uninformative or misleading. To facilitate drawing causal inferences with our measure, we show how it can be used to create an instrumental variable, patent examiner scope toughness, which we also validate. We then demonstrate the power of this instrument by examining standard-essential patents. We show that an (exogenous) diminishment of patent scope leads to patents being much less likely to be declared standard essential.     

Managing Abundance to Avoid A Bust in Latin America

Latin American (LA) economies today are at a challenging juncture as key global conditions have aligned in very exceptional ways, representing a double tailwind for many countries of the region.These countries must figure out how to best respond to a sustained period of unusually easy foreign financing conditions and large capital inflows.At the same time, they face high world prices for their commodity exports, another source of abundance that is likely to be persistent but not permanent.Such conditions are, of course, in many ways favorable, creating opportunities with important upsides.But such conditions can also lead to an accumulation of important vulnerabilities for the future.There are challenges both while these conditions persist and during the transition after they end because severe dislocations and crises may arise if the good times are improperly managed.Indeed, some of Latin America's own past experiences with the "problems of plenty" have illustrated that good times can be followed by bad endings.     

Symmetric and Asymmetric Stationarity Tests of Productivity

Studies of productivity in the operations and engineering management literature have typically focused on identifying the drivers of productivity and how best to manage resources. To date, the issues of the time-series behavior and the stochastic structure of productivity have largely been overlooked. This article examines the times-series properties of productivity utilizing several unit root and stationarity tests including one that allows for asymmetric adjustments to equilibrium. The findings suggest that productivity is a nonstationary process and first-differencing is necessary to render a stationary series. Moreover, we find some evidence of an asymmetric adjustment process in the productivity growth rates of manufacturing.     

An Evaluation of a Developmental Economic Education Project Given Limited Data

The Joint Council on Economic Education's Developmental Economic Education Program (DEEP) has been subjected to evaluations, both on a nationwide basis and in terms of the effects of a given project in a local area. Usually, the results have been positive, but too few of the evaluations have employed rigorous statistical analysis. Furthermore, the lasting effects of the program have not been sufficiently considered. The authors of this article recognize important limitations in their study, but present interesting evidence of the possible impact of the DEEP project in one city (Minneapolis) and suggest the policy implications of their findings.     

A natural experiment on sick pay cuts,sickness absence,and labor costs

This study estimates the reform effects of a reduction in statutory sick pay levels on sickness absence behavior and labor costs. German federal law reduced the legal obligation of German employers to provide 100% continued wage pay for up to six weeks per sickness episode. In 1996 statutory sick pay was decreased to 80% of foregone gross wages. Within the reform's target group – private sector employees – this measure increased the proportion of employees having zero days of absence between 6 and 8%. Quantile regression estimates indicate that employees with up to 5.5 annual absence days reduced their days of absence by about 12%. Extended analyses suggest that in industries that enforced the cut, behavioral effects were about twice as large. We show that the direct labor cost savings effect stemming from the cut in replacement levels clearly exceeds the indirect effect due to the decrease in absenteeism. Our calculations about the total decrease in labor costs are very much in line with official data which suggest that total employer-provided sick pay decreased by 6.7% or €1.7 billion per year.     

Linking multiple layers of innovation-oriented corporate culture, product program innovativeness, and business performance: a contingency approach

In recent years, firms have invested considerably in programs to raise their innovativeness by inspiring employees with an innovation-oriented corporate culture. However, extant literature is inconclusive on how an innovation-oriented culture leads to increases in product program innovativeness (PPI). This study investigates this question by analyzing a multilayer model of innovation-oriented corporate culture, using data from three different informants: marketing managers, R&D managers, and customers. The effects of innovation-oriented values and norms on PPI are fully mediated by cultural artifacts. Therefore, values and norms must be transformed into specific artifacts to exert an influence on innovativeness. Furthermore, market dynamism and technological turbulence have opposite moderating effects on the relationship between innovation-oriented artifacts and PPI. Market dynamism weakens this relationship, whereas technological turbulence strengthens it.     

Militant and moderate trade union orientations: what are the effects on workplace trade unionism,union-management relations and employee gains?

This paper presents survey findings exploring the claim that trade union militancy will deliver more advantages for unions than moderation (Kelly, 1996). Responses from representatives in two unions reveal militancy is associated with stronger union workplace activity and greater engagement with management in solving operational problems and long-term business strategies. However, there was no evidence that militancy significantly affects many terms and conditions. Moderate trade unionists in this sample were no more likely to hold a unitarist frame of reference. A further factor analysis of the militancy-moderation scale revealed two separate dimensions of militancy - a 'bargaining' and a 'mobilizing' approach. Although finding some expected benefits linked with militancy, different benefits appear to be associated with a bargaining approach and a mobilizing approach. It is suggested the approach taken in collective bargaining may be at least as important as mobilizing union members in securing gains from a militant union strategy.     

Modeling the Response of Gasoline-Crude Oil Price Crack Spread Macroeconomic Shocks

To date, considerable attention has been given to evaluating movements in crude oil and gasoline prices and in determining the significance of fundamental state variables that may influence these prices. This paper differs from the existing literature by identifying the response of the single-product gasoline-crude oil crack spread to unexpected changes in real output growth, inflation, the corporate default risk premium, and the stance of monetary policy utilizing the econometric techniques of vector autoregression and generalized impulse response analysis. The generalized impulse response method does not impose a priori restrictions as to the relative importance each of the state variables may play in the process of transmitting unexpected information from the macroeconomic variables to the crack spread. The results show the extent and the magnitude of the relationship between the crack spread being investigated and macroeconomic factors.