Akira Takayama: A Memoir

When Akira Takayama passed away this winter, the economics profession lost one of its most productive and most passionate members. This memoir catalogues Professor Takayama's publications and offers some insight into his contributions and personality from a few of his colleagues.     

Multinational activity and CEO compensation: Preliminary evidence from large UK firms

Multinational Activity and CEO Compensation: Preliminary Evidence from Large UK Firms. — Since the early 1980s the rate of growth in executive remuneration has consistently outpaced that of average earnings. This phenomenon has been widely assumed to be part of an internationalization of the executive labor market. This paper starts from the premise that the multinational enterprise will be a major agent in such a market and presents some preliminary tests for the impact of multinational activity in general, and specific regional effects in particular, on CEO remuneration using a sample of large UK firms. Surprisingly, we find no evidence to support our conjecture that CEO pay will be positively related to firm involvement in the United States. However, multinational activity does generate a significant premium over purely domestic activity.     

Adjustment Costs,Uncertainty, and the Level of Activity

What is the effect of adjustment costs on economic activity? This is an important question that is still debated either at the political or the academic level. We consider a simple model where basically two effects come into play: Adjustment costs decrease current activity but may help maintain future activity. We examine their relative strength, first in a model with uncertain prices and then in a model with demand uncertainty (newsboy problem).     

Adjustment in General Equilibrium: Some Industrial Evidence

The link between output changes and factor-mix adjustments in general equilibrium is examined for each of nine industries using pooled data from 12 developed countries over the years 1970–85. Specifications of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem and the specific-factors model of production are built on the assumptions and structure of theory with each industry isolated in turn. In their simplest version with only capital and labor input, these competitive general-equilibrium models explain a good deal of the observed variations in industrial factor mixes. The specific-factors model performs better.     

Political opinion polls and the stock market

It is a part of the received wisdom of the American and British stock exchanges that the market prefers a Conservative administration. However, attempts to test this proposition by examining market returns about the time of elections have produced contrasting and sometimes indecisive results. The present paper assumes that election outcomes will be largely anticipated by the market on the basis of published opinion forecasts. The paper examines the impact of opinion poll information on share prices over the period 1960–79—one largely characterized by two-party competition. It is found that opinion movements towards the Conservative Party do exert a significant positive impact on the market, but only where the two main parties are relatively evenly balanced.     

The role of economies of scale in justifying free trade: the Canada-USA Free Trade Agreement and Europe 1992 compared

In what way will the benefits of free trade emerge? This analysis looks at the role of economies of scale in justifying free trade. It takes the 1989 Canada-USA Free Trade Agreement and the European 1992 programmes as two recent examples of analyses in which economy of scale arguments were central to the economic evaluation of welfare gains. The official assessments of both policy moves are scrutinized and compared. It is suggested that the advantages of economies of scale are exaggerated in each account. The policy implications of the critique are drawn out for the case of both internal and external economies of scale. The argument is that a move away from traditional mass production process technologies and business strategies is underway, which requires a radically different approach to trade and scale issues.     

Co-movement of revenue: structural changes in the business cycle

The co-movement of revenue growth across different industries changes over the business cycle. Using a large sample of quarterly firm revenues, aggregated to industry data from 1969 to 2009, we demonstrate that the correlation is the highest during a crisis. Our findings of structural changes in correlation have implications for diversification decisions in portfolio analysis and risk management. The higher correlation in crisis periods increases the downside risk and bankruptcy probability of business portfolios. We test the hypothesis that average correlations are significantly different, by applying permutation and bootstrap techniques. As robustness checks, both correlations between industries and the aggregate market and correlations between earnings confirm our findings.     

SEASONED EQUITY OFFERINGS FOR NEW INVESTMENT AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF INSIDER TRADES

Significant negative valuation effects are widely acknowledged for firms announcing seasoned equity offerings. This result is consistent with theoretical models linking new equity issues to increased adverse-selection costs, lower management ownership in the firm, misuse of free cash flow, or expectations for earnings declines. Also increasingly evident, insiders trade around corporate announcements. We test the hypothesis that insider trading and announcements of new equity issues serve as joint signals in the market's evaluation of prospective capital investment projects. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that insider trading is related to market reaction to announcements of new equity issues.     

Exchange rate pass-through and rivalry in the Swiss automobile market

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Rivalry in the Swiss Automobile Market. —This paper investigates the pricing rivalry among foreign automobile producers in the Swiss market. The main results from the dynamic analysis of two categories of automobiles between 1977 and 1991 are: First, the degree of exchange rate pass-through differs among source-countries despite the absence of quantitative restrictions on imports and of domestic production facilities. However, for some countries, pricing strategies show remarkable consistency across product categories and time spans. Second, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is low, especially in the market for small-size automobiles. Third, this low degree of pass-through may be attributed to a low degree of competition among foreign sellers.