Autoregressive conditional tail behavior and results on Government bond yield spreads

Previous evidence in empirical finance indicates the potential usefulness of modeling time variation particularly in the tails of speculative return distributions. Based on results from extreme value theory, the present paper proposes a fixed changepoint Pareto-type autoregressive conditional tail (ARCT) model. Regression-based parameter estimation of the unobservable time-varying tail index is carried out via classical Kalman filtering. A model application highlights the tail index dynamics for daily changes in Government bond yield spreads between the U.S. Dollar and the Euro zone.     

When my neighbors matter: Spillover effects in the adoption of large-scale pesticide-free wheat production

We investigate the spillover effects in farmers’ adoption decisions of a novel pesticide-free wheat production system. To this end, we exploit the variability and asymmetry in the social ties among neighboring farmers. We find evidence of spillover effects in farmers’ adoption decisions as well as in farm and farmer characteristics. Our results further highlight the importance of accounting for potentially heterogeneous social ties in farmer networks beyond pure measures of spatial proximity: spillover effects are only robust once we account for the strength of social ties through farmers’ stated tendency to consult peers on agricultural decisions. Our findings highlight the relevance of peer influence in the diffusion of sustainable agriculture practices even in contexts of well-functioned institutions and high interest in environmental protection such as European agriculture. We discuss implications for the design of policies and programs for sustainable agriculture, which are currently in the center of attention in agricultural policymaking.     

The size and scope of government in the US states: does party ideology matter?

We investigate empirically how party ideology influences size and scope of government as measured by the size of government, tax structure and labor market regulation. Our dataset comprises 49 US states over the 1993–2009 period. We employ the new data on the ideological mapping of US legislatures by Shor and McCarty (Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 105(3):530–551, 2011) that considers spatial and temporal differences in Democratic and Republican Party ideology. We distinguish between three types of divided government: overall divided government, proposal division and approval division. The main result suggests that Republican governors have been more active in deregulating labor markets. We find that ideology-induced policies were counteracted under overall divided government and proposal division.     

Wie sollte das Steuersystem in Deutschland reformiert werden?

Some authors focus on the fact that Germany shows one of the highest tax burdens among the OECD countries. Based on their analysis, they suggest approaches to reduce the tax burden in particular for lower and medium incomes. These tax reliefs are possible, and would not compromise new public investment. But decreases in personal income tax rates mainly relieve higher income earners and are accompanied by high tax losses if the top tax rates are not increased. Alternatives are relief for social contributions or VAT. Other researchers do not look at the tax burden this way: as the income tax burden in Germany is not high from a historical perspective or by international standards, there is no case for massive tax cuts, as this would jeopardise the government’s ability to act and fail to correct past shifts of the tax burden at the expense of households with low incomes. Any tax cuts should be targeted at the bottom half of the income distribution without creating any revenue shortfalls. Instead, the government would be well advised to increase its efforts to overcome the public investment backlog and ensure a well functioning civil service. Furthermore, sustainability oriented tax reforms should focus on a shift of the tax burden from taxes on labour towards environmental and wealth based taxes.     

Did Globalisation Influence Credit Market Deregulation?

We investigate whether globalisation influenced credit market deregulation over the period 1970–2010. Globalisation is measured by the KOF indices of globalisation. Credit market deregulation is measured by the credit market freedom indicators of the Fraser Institute. The results from both cross‐sectional and panel regressions using ordinary least squares indicate a positive correlation between globalisation and credit market deregulation. We account for reverse causality using predicted trade openness as an instrumental variable and show that this approach gives rise to different conclusions. Two‐stage least squares estimations do not show that globalisation had a causal influence on credit market deregulation.     

Purchase Behavior and Psychophysiological Responses to Different Price Levels

The aim of the study was to examine emotional processes when product prices for different brands were changed. In a within‐subjects design, the participants were presented purchase decision trials with 14 different products (seven private label and seven national brand products) whose price levels were changed while their facial electromyography (EMG) and electrodermal activity were recorded. The results suggest that low prices and national brand products induce higher positive emotions indexed with zygomatic EMG compared to high prices and private label products. Also, positive emotions are related to greater purchase intent. Naturally, a low price has also a direct positive influence on purchase intent. However, the involvement of emotions and the influence that price and brand have on elicitation of emotions may be one explanation for consumers’ varying purchase behavior. The results highlight the importance of emotional factors in pricing research and support the usefulness of psychophysiological measures in the consumer research.     

Interest Rates, Stock Returns and Credit Spreads: Evidence from German Eurobonds

We investigate daily variations in credit spreads on investment‐grade Deutschemark‐denominated Eurobonds during the challenging 1994–1998 period. Empirical results from a Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) two‐factor regression, extended for correlated spread changes and heteroskedasticity, indicate strong persistence in spread changes. Consistent with theory and previous findings, changes in spreads are significantly negatively related to the term‐structure level while, contrary to theory, the proxy for asset value does not yield a significant negative contribution. We even find a significant positive relation for Eurobonds with long maturity. Tentative interpretations are portfolio‐rebalancing activities or differing risk factor sensitivities on short‐ vs. long‐maturity bonds.