Stock,Energy and Currency Effects on the Asymmetric Wheat Market

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of financial and currency indicators on wheat futures prices. The results suggest that the stock market, and particularly the S&P 500, positively influence the wheat market, a fact that is attributed to the wealth effect and the modern portfolio management in the context of international markets’ integration. There is also evidence that the energy markets affecting the supply and demand side exert significant impact on the wheat market. Furthermore, the results show that the shocks of the U.S. dollar/yen exchange rate are transmitted to the wheat market. Finally, the structural analysis of wheat prices’ volatility support the hypothesis of the asymmetric conditional variance, as it appears to be more volatile in response to positive shocks caused by higher wheat prices, contrary to the respective results of the equities market.     

Inter-gender interaction and communication in ultimatum games

In this article, we focus on bargaining within male–female pairs, the most pervasive partnership in humankind. We analyse data from an ultimatum game played by Greek participants. Parallel to this, we introduce a one-way communication protocol according to which the responders can send short messages to the receivers, after making their decisions. The analysis shows that gender and message effects exist and males are more effective bargainers.     

Cost of skeletal complications from bone metastases in six European countries

Objective Patients with bone metastases or lesions secondary to solid tumors or multiple myeloma often experience bone complications (skeletal-related events [SREs]—radiation to bone, pathologic fracture, surgery to bone, and spinal cord compression); however, recent data that can be used to assess the value of treatments to prevent SREs across European countries are limited. This study aimed to provide estimates of health resource utilization (HRU) and cost associated with all SRE types in Europe. HRU data were reported previously; cost data are reported herein.

Methods Eligible patients from 49 centers across Austria (n?=?57), the Czech Republic (n?=?59), Finland (n?=?60), Greece (n?=?59), Portugal (n?=?59), and Sweden (n?=?62) had bone metastases or lesions secondary to breast, lung, or prostate cancer, or multiple myeloma, and ≥1 index SRE (a SRE preceded by a SRE-free period of ≥?6.5 months). SRE-related costs were estimated from a payer perspective using health resource utilization data from patient charts (before and after the index SRE diagnosis). Country-specific unit costs were from 2010 and local currencies were converted to 2010 euros.

Results The mean costs across countries were €7043, €5242, €11,101, and €11,509 per radiation to bone, pathologic fracture, surgery to bone, and spinal cord compression event, respectively. Purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted mean cost ratios were similar in most countries, with the exception of radiation to bone.

Limitations The overall burden of SREs may have been under-estimated owing to home visits and evaluations outside the hospital setting not being reported here.

Conclusions All SREs were associated with substantial costs. Variation in SRE-associated costs between countries was most likely driven by differences in treatment practices and unit costs.     

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle across EU members: Evidence from the ARDL bounds approach and panel data

This paper addresses the saving-investment (SI) correlation for the EU15 member countries, using the ARDL approach and panel regressions. If we accept the Feldstein–Horioka [Feldstein, M. and C. Horioka, 1980, Domestic saving and international capital flows, Economic Journal 90, 314–329.] interpretation of the SI correlation, the evidence from the ARDL approach does not point to any particular direction in terms of country size, or level of development, or economic and capital market structure. Panel regressions yield an SI coefficient in the range of 0.148–0.157. This finding is attributed to higher capital mobility, lower transaction costs in the international capital markets, and the declining status of long-run current account targeting as a primary government objective.     

Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach

This paper proposes an alternative way of testing FOREX efficiency for developing countries. The FOREX market will be efficient if fully reflects all available information. If this holds, the actual exchange rate will not deviate significantly from its equilibrium rate. Moreover, the spot rate should deviate from its equilibrium rate by only transitory components (i.e. it should follow a white noise process). This test is applied to three Central and Eastern European Countries — members of the EU. Considering an LSTAR model we find no evidence of nonlinear adjustment in the misalignment series. So, linear unit root tests imply that the Poland/Euro FOREX market is efficient, the Czech/Euro FOREX market is not, while the Slovak/Euro FOREX market is quasi-efficient.     

Performance aspects of Greek bond mutual funds

This paper examines the performance characteristics of Greek bond funds and the impact of fund flows on portfolio returns. The evidence shows that on average bond funds do not offer risk-adjusted profits exceeding the returns of the benchmark index, which is in consistence with the US and international evidence. Returns before fees are slightly superior to the returns of the benchmark index, but when fees are considered they lag considerably. The security selection and market timing skills of fund managers are also tested using both an unconditional and a conditional model to test for the impact of public information variables. We also find that fund flows impact negatively on market timing.     

Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change

Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the current major forecasting controversy: global warming and the role of climate modelling in resolving this challenging topic. In this paper, we take a forecaster’s perspective in reviewing established principles for validating the atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used in most climate forecasting, and in particular by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such models should reproduce the behaviours characterising key model outputs, such as global and regional temperature changes. We develop various time series models and compare them with forecasts based on one well-established AOGCM from the UK Hadley Centre. Time series models perform strongly, and structural deficiencies in the AOGCM forecasts are identified using encompassing tests. Regional forecasts from various GCMs had even more deficiencies. We conclude that combining standard time series methods with the structure of AOGCMs may result in a higher forecasting accuracy. The methodology described here has implications for improving AOGCMs and for the effectiveness of environmental control policies which are focussed on carbon dioxide emissions alone. Critically, the forecast accuracy in decadal prediction has important consequences for environmental planning, so its improvement through this multiple modelling approach should be a priority.     

Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate

In the present paper we attempt to investigate whether the nominal exchange rate of the euro against the currencies of the four major trading partners of the eurozone, namely China, Japan, the UK and the USA, converges or not to its equilibrium level. Applying recent unit root and system cointegration techniques in the presence of structural shifts in the data, our results indicate that there exist an equilibrium relationship between each of the euro/yuan, euro/yen, euro/UK pound and euro/US dollar nominal exchange rates and the fundamentals defined by the monetary model. Following these results, our modified Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate model suggests that at the end of the estimated period, the euro/Chinese yuan and the euro/UK pound nominal exchange rates follow an equilibrium process. Our empirical results also imply that the single European currency is considered as overvalued against the US dollar, while it is considered as undervalued against the Japanese currency.     

CO2 Emissions and Financial Performance of Socially Responsible Firms: An Empirical Survey

A firm's financial performance is closely related to its environmental behavior. This result is valid especially in the case of socially responsible firms. In the present study a data econometric analysis is conducted based on a GARCH model for socially responsible and conventional firms. According to our findings, the performance of socially responsible firms is negatively related to an increase of global CO₂ emissions. The firms' costs for implementing environmental policies and the investors' attitude towards the aforementioned firms may account for our results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.