LIQUIDITY AND PRICE VARIABILITY IN FUTURES MARKETS

This paper tests the hypothesis that market liquidity affects the price variability of futures contracts. The analyses used take into account the maturity effect and various sources of nonstationarity. Empirical testing involved eleven commodities in various markets. The evidence strongly suggests that futures contracts in distant and thinly traded months exhibit different price variability than contracts in near to maturity and liquid traded months, and that the behavior is commodity dependent. These findings could help investors better evaluate risks and provide a better basis for hedging strategies. Also, monthly averages of open interest can be used interchangeably with volume to measure liquidity in determining which pattern applies to a given commodity.     

Input–output evidence on the relative price effects of total productivity shift

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relative price effects of a notional shift in total productivity using data from ten Symmetric Input–Output Tables of five European economies. The results suggest that the direction of the price-movements is, more often than not, governed by the (traditional) labour cost condition and this could be connected to the effective ranks of the matrices of the relative shares of the capital goods.     

Dynamic European stock market convergence: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis in the first euro-decade

The introduction of the euro epitomizes European economic integration. This paper assesses the dynamic process of convergence among four major European stock markets in the first euro-decade. Using tests that allow for endogenously determined breaks in cointegrating relationships and rolling cointegration analysis, we show that although some convergence has been taking place over time, it is very much an ongoing process. There is also evidence that the German and French markets appear to be the ones with a higher degree of convergence while the dominant position of Germany within the eurozone seems to be (re)affirmed by tests conducted herein.     

The Impact of Islamic Feminism in Empowering Women’s Entrepreneurship in Conflict Zones: Evidence from Afghanistan,Iraq and Palestine

Journal of Business Ethics - The impact of Islam upon women’s entrepreneurship in conflict zones is woefully absent from the entrepreneurship literature. This is due to the absence of...     

Accuracy of forward freight agreements in forecasting future freight rates

Participants in the maritime industry place much interest in the Forward Freight Agreements (FFA/FFAs), being an indispensable tool for hedging shipping freight risk. Our article innovates by directly comparing the FFA predictions with their actual future settlement prices as well as by examining contracts going forward as far as next calendar year. We combine straightforward comparison measurements with cointegration analysis to test for the accuracy and efficiency of the FFA projections. We find that FFAs display limited usefulness in predicting future freights, only slightly superior than simple naïve models. The shorter the contract period and the smaller the vessel the better the forecast. We also find FFAs being relatively good predictors of future market direction but missing the turning points of the market cycles.     

The Welfare Consequences of Pollution-Tax Harmonization

A key, and often controversial, issue in environmental negotiations is the appropriate extent of harmonization of environmental policies. This paper, within a general equilibrium model of international trade with endogenous pollution discharges, identifies instances in which pollution-tax harmonization can deliver potential Pareto improvements.     

Hybrid particle swarm optimization with mutation for optimizing industrial product lines: An application to a mixed solution space considering both discrete and continuous design variables

This article presents an artificial intelligence-based solution to the problem of product line optimization. More specifically, we apply a new hybrid particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to design an optimal industrial product line. PSO is a biologically-inspired optimization framework derived from natural intelligence that exploits simple analogues of collective behavior found in nature, such as bird flocking and fish schooling. All existing product line optimization algorithms in the literature have been so far applied to consumer markets and product attributes that range across some discrete values. Our hybrid PSO algorithm searches for an optimal product line in a large design space which consists of both discrete and continuous design variables. The incorporation of a mutation operator to the standard PSO algorithm significantly improves its performance and enables our mechanism to outperform the state of the art Genetic Algorithm in a simulated study with artificial datasets pertaining to industrial cranes. The proposed approach deals with the problem of handling variables that can take any value from a continuous range and utilizes design variables associated with both product attributes and value-added services. The application of the proposed artificial intelligence framework yields important implications for strategic customer relationship and production management in business-to-business markets.     

Exports,investments and economic development of pre-accession countries of the European Union: an empirical investigation of Bulgaria and Romania

This paper attempts to analyse the relationship between exports, investments and economic development in two pre-accession countries of the European Union, Bulgaria and Romania. For investigation of this relationship a multivariate autoregressive VAR model is used. The results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports, investments and economic growth for the two countries. Granger causality tests based on error correction models (ECM) indicated that there is a ‘strong Granger causal’ relation between economic growth and exports as well as between investments and exports for the two countries. In addition, economic development and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on capital accumulation and economic development.     

Dynamic Comovements Between Housing and Oil Markets in the US over 1859 to 2013: a Note

In this study, we examine the dynamic comovements between housing and oil market returns in the United States over the period 1859–2013, while controlling for real gross domestic product growth, inflation, interest rates, and real stock, gold and silver returns that are known to affect both these markets. As such, we provide a bird’s-eye view on the interdependencies between these two markets from a historical perspective. The results of our empirical analysis reveal that comovements between housing and oil market returns are consistently negative over time, apart from several recessions the U.S. economy experienced in the 19th century, wherein correlations were positive.